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Started By
Message
re: Overnight Weather Thread - LA, MS, AL
Posted on 4/6/14 at 6:30 pm to GEAUXmedic
Posted on 4/6/14 at 6:30 pm to GEAUXmedic
WOW, things got unstable quick..
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 062324Z - 070130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADOES...A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
/LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT 23 UTC/ IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 KTS...AND EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS/...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 04/06/2014
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0298
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SUN APR 06 2014
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI....SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 062324Z - 070130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING. TORNADOES...A
FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...LATEST OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
/LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AT 23 UTC/ IS BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHWARD. SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE AIRMASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OF UP TO 2000 J/KG...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR VALUES AT OR ABOVE 45 KTS...AND EFFECTIVE STORM-RELATIVE
HELICITY VALUES BETWEEN 200-300 M2/S2. GIVEN THIS FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE INITIATION OF SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS /INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS/...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR.
..MARSH/THOMPSON.. 04/06/2014
2
Posted on 4/6/14 at 6:44 pm to GEAUXmedic
Besides a quick sprinkle or two we haven't got shite for rain/weather in Mandeville.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 6:52 pm to GEAUXmedic
I'm currently in Robe line, LA driving (stopped at a gas station) down i49 to Baton Rouge. I'll let you guys know where the bad stuff is located if I pass through anything significant.
ETA: Robeline. One word.
ETA: Robeline. One word.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 6:53 pm to LawLessTyGer
quote:
Besides a quick sprinkle or two we haven't got shite for rain/weather in Mandeville.
Prepare thy anus
Posted on 4/6/14 at 6:56 pm to gaetti15
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 65
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
655 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ALABAMA
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
EASTERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 655 PM
UNTIL 300 AM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
A FEW LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES NORTH OF CRESTVIEW FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 64...
DISCUSSION...AS AN UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER EAST
TX AND THE ARKLATEX THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...A SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DEEPEN/MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
AS THIS OCCURS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN TANDEM
WITH A NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT AND AN INCREASINGLY MOISTURE-RICH
AIRMASS. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
LIKELY THROUGH THE EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG
TORNADO ASIDE FROM DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 7:03 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:12 pm to GEAUXmedic
T-storms are starting to pop well offshore south of Lafayette heading quickly NE. These may be the storms that cause problems later on in SE LA/ S MS tonight.
LINK
LINK
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:16 pm to NorthEndZone
oh definitely, cells are going to be popping up left and right
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
The temp and dew point have gone from 67 to 71 in the past hour in Prairieville.
Instability is increasing quickly now that the warm front has passed.
Instability is increasing quickly now that the warm front has passed.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
And the first Tornado warning of the day goes to Texas again.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:24 pm to GEAUXmedic
The low level inflow of this set-up is impressive. This is not a scientific observation but a visual one. I'm watching low-level clouds sweeping very quickly across the sunset horizon.
Winds are southerly at 18 gusting to 25, humidity is 92% and the dewpoint is 73.
Winds are southerly at 18 gusting to 25, humidity is 92% and the dewpoint is 73.
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 7:27 pm
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:25 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:where you at?
The low level inflow of this set-up is impressive. This is not a scientific observation but a visual one. I'm watching low-level clouds sweeping very quickly across the sunset horizon.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:25 pm to rds dc
quote:
And the first Tornado warning of the day goes to Texas again.
texas
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:26 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
The temp and dew point has gone from 67 to 71 in the past hour in Prairieville.
Instability is increasing quickly now that the warm front has passed.
Anyone south of the warm front will be under the gun, esp. as the LLJ starts kicking in over the next few hours.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:28 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
The low level inflow of this set-up is impressive. This is not a scientific observation but a visual one. I'm watching low-level clouds sweeping very quickly across the sunset horizon.
I'm watching the same thing in Thibodaux. Winds have picked up to steady 20 mph with gusts higher.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:29 pm to rds dc
quote:
quote: The temp and dew point has gone from 67 to 71 in the past hour in Prairieville. Instability is increasing quickly now that the warm front has passed.
Anyone south of the warm front will be under the gun, esp. as the LLJ starts kicking in over the next few hours.
Scratch that - this is the 2nd edit to those values since I first posted it a couple mins ago:
It's now 72 both temperature and dew point. It's increasing very quickly.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:29 pm to GEAUXmedic
quote:
where you at?
Southern Lafourche
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:30 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
Southern Lafourche
im in houma, haven't stepped outside in a bit
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:31 pm to TDsngumbo
It was slightly windy in NOLA today but now it's calm and without knowing any better I wouldn't think we were going to see any kind of storm at all.
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:34 pm to zacata88
We're getting hammered in Evangeline Parish, just south of Rapides. Direct TV keeps going out.
The whole area is under Flash Flood and Tornado watch tonight.
LC
The whole area is under Flash Flood and Tornado watch tonight.
LC
Posted on 4/6/14 at 7:37 pm to LongueCarabine
Storm chasers heading to BR. He just gave a great explanation of what is happening with the weather.
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