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re: Overnight Weather Thread - LA, MS, AL

Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:18 pm to
Posted by EyeOfDaTiga1
Member since Aug 2006
559 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:18 pm to
quote:

lmao, what are you looking at? that is completely the opposite of whats going on tonight.

northern areas will get a lot of rain, but as far as convective weather goes, thats all southeast la, south ms, and southwest al


Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
4642 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:18 pm to
Call me dumb, but my radar shows stuff heading to Memphis, but not much below Alexandria.
Posted by EyeOfDaTiga1
Member since Aug 2006
559 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

Call me dumb, but my radar shows stuff heading to Memphis, but not much below Alexandria.


Me too, but I'm going with GeauxMedic. Dude seems to know his shite.
Posted by Lsuhoohoo
Member since Sep 2007
99797 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

They're pretty ballsy though


Ya frick driving into a tornado. They used to get way too close in just their stock Tahoe

I do have respect for them for doing what they do to learn more about the storms. And I used to always watch the StormChasers show on Discovery. The early seasons were enjoyable but the later seasons just became more of a "reality" show with Joel screaming at everything when a raindrop hit the windshield.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Call me dumb, but my radar shows stuff heading to Memphis, but not much below Alexandria.


alright, i know what you mean now. yeah they're gonna get rain/thunder.. but as far as convective storms itll be south of there. there's 1500 j/kg cape values off the coast of louisiana, the shear is up to 35 kts at 0-3km, and helicity values are at 350+ across south la (which is rare for our area).
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 3:28 pm
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:26 pm to
quote:

I do have respect for them for doing what they do to learn more about the storms. And I used to always watch the StormChasers show on Discovery. The early seasons were enjoyable but the later seasons just became more of a "reality" show with Joel screaming at everything when a raindrop hit the windshield.


i used to love their live stream.. but they don't take as many risks as they used to. the other streamers are usually in better position most of the time.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:27 pm to
Tornado Watch


BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 64
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
325 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2014

TORNADO WATCH 64 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

LAC001-003-009-011-019-023-039-045-053-055-079-097-099-101-113-
115-070400-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0064.140406T2025Z-140407T0400Z/

LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE

ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CAMERON
EVANGELINE IBERIA JEFFERSON DAVIS
LAFAYETTE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION
VERNON

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JEFFERSON NEWTON ORANGE
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 3:28 pm
Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
4642 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:28 pm to
quote:

alright, i know what you mean now. yeah they're gonna get rain/thunder.. but as far as convective storms itll be south of there. there's 1500 j/kg cape values off the coast of louisiana, the shear is INSANE up to 35 kts at 0-3km, and helicity values are at 350+ across south la (which is rare for our area).


So, for someone in Gonzales, what does this mean, in regular public school terms?
Posted by tigercraig
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2003
3650 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:29 pm to
Looks like the flooding threat has lessened. Was supposed to be raining all day, now looks to be more of nighttime squall line set-up
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

alright, i know what you mean now. yeah they're gonna get rain/thunder.. but as far as convective storms itll be south of there. there's 1500 j/kg cape values off the coast of louisiana, the shear is up to 35 kts at 0-3km, and helicity values are at 350+ across south la (which is rare for our area).


Sometimes I get the feeling the weather nuts just make jargon up as they go when they get all excited. I mean, I recognize that as English, but it makes no fricking sense, kinda like listening to a schizophrenic.
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
213723 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:29 pm to
Face it... Baton Rouge will get a few small storms..{IF ANY]...

I am SOOOOO Tired of the weather folks out there overselling bad weather....
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

Face it... Baton Rouge will get a few small storms..{IF ANY]...


QUIT.
TALKING.

You're going to get us all killed.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:30 pm to
quote:

So, for someone in Gonzales, what does this mean, in regular public school terms?


keep an eye out, make sure you have a weather radio, and beware of tornadoes over night.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:31 pm to
quote:

Face it... Baton Rouge will get a few small storms..{IF ANY]...


ok...


Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point

This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 3:32 pm
Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
4642 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:33 pm to
quote:

a weather radio,


Had one once, it woke me up all night about warnings 3 states away that had no bearing on me. Had it throw it out.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:34 pm to
quote:


So, for someone in Gonzales, what does this mean, in regular public school terms?



CAPE is potential energy available for making thunderstorms. Basically think of it as warm air below and cold dry air above. Forces it to lift up. Sheer is wind blowing across the system...it'll help to cause rotation.

Tonight this mix will help support supercells in front of the coming cold front. They'll generally be smallish cells alone or in a small cluster out in front of the squall line. Those are the ones to worry about for the severe weather.

I'll let others fill in any nuance or misunderstand with my post but I think that explains it for your means fairly well.
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:36 pm to
quote:

Sometimes I get the feeling the weather nuts just make jargon up as they go when they get all excited. I mean, I recognize that as English, but it makes no fricking sense, kinda like listening to a schizophrenic.


Helicity means "potential for rotation" basically..
the values mean-
SRH = 150-299 ... supercells possible with weak tornadoes according to Fujita scale
SRH = 300-499 ... very favourable to supercells development and strong tornadoes
SRH > 450 ... violent tornadoes

Wind Shear is a variation of winds.. this is an ingredient in convective thunderstorms.

CAPE is convective available potential energy, or the amount of instability in the atmosphere.


values are:
1 - 1,500 Positive
1,500 - 2,500 Large
2,500+ Extreme
This post was edited on 4/6/14 at 3:37 pm
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:37 pm to
Thanks for the explanation!
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Joplin, MO
Member since Nov 2011
41637 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:37 pm to
quote:

Thanks for the explanation!


youre welcome, i wasn't thinking when i posted that last post.. i'll explain anything yall don't understand that i may post..
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
213723 posts
Posted on 4/6/14 at 3:41 pm to
Do you realize that [from the experts] that it was supposed to start storming by 2 today????

For BR anyway.......
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