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re: Oil dive deepens to 12-year low; could hit $20 on China fears
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:46 pm to Asgard Device
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:46 pm to Asgard Device
Price bottom, but yes, I agree. Once shale isn't profitable the market will settle. Supply with teeter around that point until demand picks up.
We are really close, Bakken was nearing the projected break even for a while today.
We are really close, Bakken was nearing the projected break even for a while today.
This post was edited on 1/12/16 at 8:47 pm
2
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:47 pm to lsugradman
quote:
lsugradman
2 gallons of gas is cheaper than a gallon of milk. 1 gallon is cheaper than a loaf of bread or dozen eggs.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:47 pm to Asgard Device
quote:
Once prices get to a certain point, they will flood the market again.
Iran and Iraq will produce for cash at this point. And neither are a factor right now. It is ugly and I wish everyone the best.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:53 pm to fightin tigers
Most aren't profitable but that have to continue to service debt. Once they can't do that anymore the real shite show starts.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:56 pm to yellowfin
Freeport, petroquest, stone, transocean and Chesapeake are all probably drawing dead.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:57 pm to glassman
I know a guy who last month was a North American manager for TransCanada. This month he's out of a job. Bought a new house recently, has one kid in LSU and another one in private school. Good thing his wife has a decent job, although gotta think their lifestyle will take a major hit. Goodbye Catholic High, hello Woodlawn..
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:58 pm to yellowfin
quote:
Most aren't profitable but that have to continue to service debt. Once they can't do that anymore the real shite show starts.
Ding Ding ding
lots of people are going to find out just how far their bank was extended into the patch. I would not be holding one cent over FIDC insured levels of cash in a local bank right now. JMHO
Posted on 1/12/16 at 8:59 pm to Jim Rockford
I would hope someone at that point in their life would have significant savings. If not they aren't too bright.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:02 pm to yellowfin
Most shale producers are by and large able to service interest only debt at about the $50 barrel mark. In the low $30's it is just a matter of time for the banks to start calling the notes. However they will let them service interest and even restructure debt for as long as they can because they certainly don't want the assets. But I don't see that lasting too long for most as they are all highly leveraged as that's just how the industry works.
To be in the industry, pretty much at most levels, you have to be somewhat of a gambler at heart and gamblers survive one way or another.
To be in the industry, pretty much at most levels, you have to be somewhat of a gambler at heart and gamblers survive one way or another.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:04 pm to cave canem
Know of one local for sure that's been handing out signed checks for the last 5 years.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:05 pm to Martini
Hasn't shale been below 30 for a few weeks?
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:06 pm to cave canem
quote:
I would not be holding one cent over FIDC insured levels of cash in a local bank right now. JMHO
Not a bad bit of advice.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:10 pm to fightin tigers
Yes. That is my point. It is pretty much to the price where the interest on the paper can't even be serviced.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:10 pm to slackster
quote:
I would not be holding one cent over FIDC insured levels of cash in a local bank right now. JMHO
Not a bad bit of advice.
Fortunately, our area missed out on the shale boom, so we're no worse off than before
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:13 pm to yellowfin
quote:
I would hope someone at that point in their life would have significant savings. If not they aren't too bright.
Perhaps this will convince people to stop pouring their retirement savings into the company for which they work. It makes little to no sense to have both your income and your retirement basically tied to the same sector.
Sure, you could have retired with a ton of money in XOM from 35 years of employment, but that sort of growth is incredibly difficult to recreate for a middle-aged employee, and you could find yourself both unemployed and with a 25% loss in your retirement assets in 12 months.
It can be much, much worse than that for many of the smaller producers.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:16 pm to slackster
My dad timed it perfect. Retired from chevron and cashed out in early 2014
Now he just hunts, drinks, and plays with cattle
Now he just hunts, drinks, and plays with cattle
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:20 pm to yellowfin
quote:
the real shite show starts.
It should be starting very soon.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:20 pm to fightin tigers
.
This post was edited on 1/13/16 at 10:14 pm
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:23 pm to cave canem
10 banks with significant exposure to the oil industry
From nearly a year ago, but I imagine little has changed.
From nearly a year ago, but I imagine little has changed.
Posted on 1/12/16 at 9:25 pm to Jim Rockford
The one I was talking about is #1 on that list
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