re: Maybe this thing is almost over - Oxford theory UPDATED OP showing more evidence

quote:

---

The same group who originally posted that model have released a revision. Original projected 500k deaths in total for the UK, the revision has it at around 20k.

96% Decrease in Projected Death Rate for UK

I see someone else has posted a link ITT showing that Stanford has joined this party as well. Do with that information what you will.

ETA: 500k, and now 20k, are the high end of his estimates. Meaning those are worst case scenario numbers.

---

Except that Brix misspoke and he didn't actually downgrade his own model. Here is his statement:

quote:

---

I think it would be helpful if I cleared up some confusion that has emerged in recent days. Some have interpreted my evidence to a UK parliamentary committee as indicating we have substantially revised our assessments of the potential mortality impact of COVID-19. This is not the case. Indeed, if anything, our latest estimates suggest that the virus is slightly more transmissible than we previously thought. Our lethality estimates remain unchanged. My evidence to Parliament referred to the deaths we assess might occur in the UK in the presence of the very intensive social distancing and other public health interventions now in place. Without those controls, our assessment remains that the UK would see the scale of deaths reported in our study (namely, up to approximately 500 thousand).

---

ETA:

quote:

---

Correction: The original title of this article incorrectly suggested that Neil Ferguson stated his initial model was wrong. The article has been revised to make clear that he provided a downgraded projection given the new data and current mitigation steps. This article has also been updated to include Ferguson’s clarifying statement posted on Twitter on Thursday.

---

BTW this is for your link in case you ask for one. They've updated the article