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re: Man loses his hard earned money at the casino and loses it

Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:00 pm to
Posted by El Magnifico
La casa de tu mamá
Member since Jan 2014
7017 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

gambler.
another? I was just getting used to going from jogger to stranger
Posted by AwgustaDawg
CSRA
Member since Jan 2023
7239 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:04 pm to
quote:

You should be in an alley throwing dice or some shite.



The casino version is mathematically identical to the alley version if you stay out of the middle of the table. If you're tossing chips in the middle of the table it is a mathematical certainty that if you do so long enough your money will be in the lock box adjacent to the table. Keep your money around the edges and it can take a LONG time to lose much...if youre tossing it in anything near the middle of the table you would be as well off to toss it out a window...
Posted by AwgustaDawg
CSRA
Member since Jan 2023
7239 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:30 pm to
quote:

If you ever want a confidence booster, go to a Tunica Casino. You’ll feel like an OT-10


Hells to the yes...they also USED to have unlimited free odds wagers on the pass, don't pass and come bets...and paid....wait for it...the actual mathematical odds. You could place a $5 pass wager and when the point was established you could bet as much on the odds as you dared....I never saw them flinch with people placing $5 pass bets and $500 odds bets. Most casinos limit the odds bets to, at best the mathematical odds, but given the amounts bet at the true odds they are actually limited to full numerical value. Some casinos simply say you can take like 5-1 odds...especially harsh. The odds of winning a don't pass bet is about 49.3%, slightly better than the pass bet BUT your table mates will hate you for betting against the shooter. Allowing to bet as much as you dare on the odds when the point is 6,7 or 8 is basically a mathematical advantage over time for the player. Unheard of in a casino. Most people were hesitant to do it and the dealers wouldn't tell you you could but if you just did it they would not flinch. If you did it consistently, especially betting significantly more on 6,7 and 8 the pit boss would start offering you free meals and rooms and all manner of things to get you away from the table. Tunica craos were like a printing press if you knew how to take advantage. It was literally mathematically advantageous..
Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6965 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 2:37 pm to
quote:

Only 1% of the sports gamblers in this country in my opinion earn their living strictly off wagering on sports and I mean specifically long term.

It’s far less than that. 1 in 100? It’s more like 1 in 1,000,000 or 10,000,000. Think how many gamblers have betting apps and you believe that 1 in 100 of those earn a living with their sports betting? I say 1 in 100 of those are not in the red long-term.
Posted by Earthquake 88
Mobile
Member since Jan 2010
3018 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

It’s far less than that. 1 in 100? It’s more like 1 in 1,000,000 or 10,000,000. Think how many gamblers have betting apps and you believe that 1 in 100 of those earn a living with their sports betting? I say 1 in 100 of those are not in the red long-term.


You are trying to lump every single person that wagers on sports into that 1% category. I’m referring to individuals wagering enough money to actually earn a living wagering on sports. To be profitable, a sports bettor must win at least 52.4% of bets. For many, 55% is a good year, 60% a great year and 65% a career year. Hitting 55% is not easy. That’s why estimates are so low on who can actually win long term and profit. Me personally if that was my only way to earn a living I couldn’t handle the stress. The 1%er is a unicorn.
Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6965 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

Only 1% of the sports gamblers in this country


You said this, not me. I’m going off of what you said.

I know all the stats you stated. The math bears out that only 1% are merely profitable long-term. Far, far less than that can actually make a living betting on sports.
Posted by Earthquake 88
Mobile
Member since Jan 2010
3018 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

You said this, not me. I’m going off of what you said.


I should have been more clear. You are correct.

quote:

Far, far less than that can actually make a living betting on sports.


Now this I disagree with. When people are putting up $100,000 or more for their investment it’s no different than going to see your financial advisors. When wagering responsibly on .05% to 3% of their bankroll per wager those are the sharps that are moving the lines on a 220 billion dollar a year industry. That’s not little $50, $100 dollar bettors doing that. These guys hunt in packs. Manipulate lines. Share information and are viewed as a serious liability and threat to the books. Arun Shiva over here in Alabama has a Phd in biostatistics from the University of Alabama. He is a prime example of a guy that can win long term or go to work for the casinos and has a documented 19 years of wagers without a losing year when combining all sports bet in a calendar year. Legalized gambling in a lot of these states has turned it into a serious investment for individuals and groups alike and they aren’t messing around. Where the industry has become aggravating is casinos not letting you wager what you want. They will take a persons money that loses on the regular but soon as you start popping the books for chunks of money they reduce your size of wagers. That needs to be regulated.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 10:09 pm
Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6965 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 10:22 pm to
You’re talking about an infinitesimal number of people that have a highly unique set of skills. That subset of people certainly is much less than 1 in 100 of even dime-level bettors.

There are just too many barriers to success. Highly sophisticated models and data mining techniques used by books. Higher vig across the board (8 cent lines are long gone). Ease of making impulse bets destroys discipline.

It can be done. But the odds are highly stacked against even the most savvy and bankrolled sports bettors.
This post was edited on 6/29/23 at 10:32 pm
Posted by Earthquake 88
Mobile
Member since Jan 2010
3018 posts
Posted on 6/29/23 at 11:36 pm to
Go to WagerTalk and look at their 3 top handicappers for 365 days. They are the degenerates special handicappers. It you wagered every single play of Lawrence Prezman he hits around 55% year after year. That’s making money albeit not what I call a great ROI. I picked one that is not the best to use as an example. Doc Sports has been in business since 1971 or 1972. If you wagered every play exactly the way August Young tells you to a $100 per unit gambler is up close to $29,000. Don’t believe me email them and ask the owner Wade to provide you with Young's last 365 days of documented wagers. I know doctors, lawyers, and many others that have money playing their wagers every single day like it’s the stock market and cashing tickets. You lose in the NFL so what they make it up elsewhere. You can make money at wagering off sports if it’s run like an investment in the form of a business. I’ve worked on the other side of the window on the books side when I was younger. If a person gets hooked up in the right circle, just like picking the right financial planner, you can win. There are risk just like in the stock market. But numbers don’t lie and I track this stuff weekly.
Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6965 posts
Posted on 6/30/23 at 8:14 am to
You’re making my argument for me.
Posted by Earthquake 88
Mobile
Member since Jan 2010
3018 posts
Posted on 6/30/23 at 7:04 pm to
quote:

You’re making my argument for me.


Obviously you seem like an intelligent person. I get what you are saying and you know what you are talking about. But I get what I’m saying too and also know a great deal about this topic. At times I wish this site was not anonymous because I’d rather discuss this vocally. Maybe we need to quantify a bankroll size to make my point. You can either fish on your own, hire someone to advise you, or a combination of both. There are a significant amount of losers over a long period of time. Massive amount. But there is a small amount, 1% by my estimation, and the global and stateside books agree, are a serious threat to take wagers from long term. I can tell you’ve either wagered for a long time or sat on the other side of the window. Have you ever sat in a risk and liability meeting between oddsmakers as an employee? Just curious because I have.
This post was edited on 6/30/23 at 7:07 pm
Posted by Sun God
Member since Jul 2009
44874 posts
Posted on 6/30/23 at 7:05 pm to
quote:

But not as bleak as the guy sitting alone in his living room, whose ability to make this months car payment depends on the outcome of a 48 yard field goal.


Posted by Vandyrone
Nashville, TN
Member since Dec 2012
6965 posts
Posted on 6/30/23 at 8:10 pm to
quote:

But there is a small amount, 1% by my estimation, and the global and stateside books agree, are a serious threat to take wagers from long term.

We are saying the same thing here. Let’s just leave it at that. Not worth debating between merely profitable and actually earning a living.
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12008 posts
Posted on 6/30/23 at 8:53 pm to
I have clinical OCD. I have never been inside of a casino in my life. If I tried smoking or drinking or gambling, I would not survive another five years.
Posted by Martini
Near Athens
Member since Mar 2005
48861 posts
Posted on 6/30/23 at 8:57 pm to
Is that Karen Peterson?
Posted by Saintsisit
Member since Jan 2013
3948 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 6:55 am to
Weird bump, just coming out of a 3 month coma?
This post was edited on 10/3/23 at 6:56 am
Posted by supadave3
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2005
30280 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 7:33 am to
quote:

I’ve learned the lessons the hard way too many times.



That seems pretty contradictory.
Posted by Quatrepot
Member since Jun 2023
4062 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:00 am to
Don’t wager what you can’t afford to lose
Posted by SippyCup
Gulf Coast
Member since Sep 2008
6145 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:01 am to
quote:

two things I’m proud of myself for


I can't believe accurate hurricane forecasts didn't make the list.
Posted by NyCaLa
Baton Rouge
Member since Apr 2014
1019 posts
Posted on 10/3/23 at 8:35 am to
Had an employee that worked at the Beau Rivage as a personal concierge to high rollers. His stories are depressing. From guys weeping on his shoulder in utter despair to zombie gamblers who haven't slept for a few days a start stinking
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