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Hedge Funds Lose Confidence in Once-Hot Oil Market

Posted on 10/30/18 at 8:15 am
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 8:15 am
quote:

Hedge funds have scaled back their bets on rising oil prices to the lowest level in a year, the latest case of investors growing wary of a once-hot market.


quote:

Speculative investors have grown cautious this month, as crude prices have tumbled 12% from an almost four-year high. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. oil benchmark, had its worst three-week stretch since June 2017 through Friday


quote:

For much of 2018, robust demand world-wide and shrinking exports from Iran and Venezuela helped propel prices higher. Now, investors and traders anticipate higher output from Saudi Arabia and weaker global consumption to weigh on the market.


quote:

The skepticism from hedge funds has been reinforced by another bearish signal in the oil market, analysts say. The price of oil to be delivered in the future is now higher than the spot price, a condition known as contango.
When the market is in contango, investors have to roll over their oil futures and buy the next month’s more expensive contracts, incurring a “roll cost” that crimps their profits.







Don't head to Carmax yet to unload that F250, though, baws. The good news:

quote:

Despite this month’s volatility, oil prices are still up more than 11% for the year. Some investors say the selling this month was driven more by momentum than supply-demand fundamentals, so crude prices could quickly jump higher if U.S. sanctions against Iran and other disruptions lead to a supply shortfall


LINK
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
66922 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 8:23 am to
Looks like the LSU Russian Christmas party will be grilling burgers in the park instead of the Ritz Ballroom this year
Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
19297 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 8:49 am to
So tired of these “analysts” creating the cycle of celebration and then chaos. Stop letting Saudi control the damn market.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:24 am to
quote:

So tired of these “analysts” creating the cycle of celebration and then chaos. Stop letting Saudi control the damn market.


The American analysts have nothing to do with how much oil the Saudis decide to drill or the sanctions the American Government decides to impose on them.
Posted by tigerinthebueche
Member since Oct 2010
38053 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:30 am to
wouldn't hedge fund managers be more likely to move the money around though? moving it from place to place to get a better return? or do they put money in one place and just leave it there?
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 9:44 am to
quote:

wouldn't hedge fund managers be more likely to move the money around though? moving it from place to place to get a better return? or do they put money in one place and just leave it there?


That's not really how hedging works, like at all.
Posted by hottub
Member since Dec 2012
3654 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:41 am to
quote:

The American analysts have nothing to do with how much oil the Saudis decide to drill or the sanctions the American Government decides to impose on them.


Financial institutions are one of the largest donor groups in DC. You don’t think they have influence on US foreign policy?!?
Posted by hottub
Member since Dec 2012
3654 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:43 am to
quote:

That's not really how hedging works, like at all.


Hedging and Hedge Funds are 2 different things
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:43 am to
quote:

Financial institutions are one of the largest donor groups in DC. You don’t think they have influence on US foreign policy?!?



Over OPEC? No, I don't think they have much influence over the Middle East who has clearly done whatever they wanted for the last 40 years.
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:44 am to
quote:

Hedging and Hedge Funds are 2 different things


Did you read the article? I'm guessing you did not.

quote:

Hedge funds have scaled back their bets on rising oil prices to the lowest level in a year,


As in these hedge funds are buying futures.
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 10:45 am
Posted by hottub
Member since Dec 2012
3654 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:49 am to
quote:

Mingo Was His NameO


Hey look everyone, Mingo’s weekly attempt to be cute and bash on oilfield baws.

Shouldn’t this be on the Money Board, anyway?
Posted by Mingo Was His NameO
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2016
37536 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:50 am to
quote:

Hey look everyone, Mingo’s weekly attempt to be cute and bash on oilfield baws.


I didn't say anything disparaging about oilfield Baws. In fact, I mentioned oil is still up over 10% for the year.
This post was edited on 10/30/18 at 10:51 am
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105309 posts
Posted on 10/30/18 at 10:57 am to
It's a real Catch-22. Oil goes up, you can afford the note on your F250 but can't afford to drive it. Oil goes down, you can afford to drive it but can't afford the note.
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