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Started By
Message
re: Fed Chair Says U.S. May Be Drastically Overstating Jobs Numbers
Posted on 12/11/25 at 1:25 pm to Motownsix
Posted on 12/11/25 at 1:25 pm to Motownsix
quote:
Trump already fired and then silenced the BLS. I worked with the BLS for years and while data collection and revisions seem complicated to people unfamiliar with the process they always did great work. If there’s anything the government always did well it was data collection. Trump convinced idiots to call anything they don’t like fake.
Overestimating a million jobs is pretty bad.
If you were good at your job the year end numbers would be close to your estimation.
This post was edited on 12/11/25 at 1:26 pm
0
Posted on 12/11/25 at 1:39 pm to Motownsix
quote:
Trump already fired and then silenced the BLS. I worked with the BLS for years and while data collection and revisions seem complicated to people unfamiliar with the process they always did great work. If there’s anything the government always did well it was data collection.
I've never understood why it's released preliminarily, then always revised. Why not just pause release for three months, then release accurate numbers, delayed a quarter, every month until kingdom come?
Posted on 12/11/25 at 1:42 pm to ragincajun03
Doubt even the agencies that know actually know regardless of who is in Washington but anecdotally we are seeing about a 30% increase in applications to job postings over the last 12 months. They were pretty much stable over the prior 24 months. All professionals in engineering and engineering support. Tradesmen also applying at higher rates.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 1:50 pm to G2160
quote:
Of course trump is gaming the numbers. They all are.
To game the numbers one would need to release the numbers. We haven't had any BLS data on employment or CPI since September's numbers were released.
Posted on 12/11/25 at 1:57 pm to AllDayEveryDay
quote:
I've never understood why it's released preliminarily, then always revised.
Typically, the data is at least directionally correct allowing the Fed, businesses, and government to have some idea of what the current economic conditions are.
I didn't have a problem firing the woman who oversaw a 900k revision...that's ridiculous. The way BLS collects their survey data back from employers is what leads to revisions...they report on what they have when they have it. Employment numbers for the previous month are always reported the first Friday of the next month. When that happens, there are still a ton of surveys still out in the field.
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