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re: Crude below $50
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:11 pm to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:11 pm to tgrbaitn08
Some good charts that compare trends in different areas. here
It shows that between the US and Canada we have increased production significantly in the last few years while the Saudis have maintained a pretty level production. The combination of cheap gas driving up demand and low prices causing many to slow production will start balancing out the gap in supply and demand in about 6 months if I had to guess.
The decline curve on most shale wells is quicker than for other wells, so the fact that rig counts are dropping means we have about 6 months before we see production start falling as a result. I know several of my clients are in the process of reducing rigs and are pinching back production on producing wells, so we may see production start to fall sooner than 6 months.
It shows that between the US and Canada we have increased production significantly in the last few years while the Saudis have maintained a pretty level production. The combination of cheap gas driving up demand and low prices causing many to slow production will start balancing out the gap in supply and demand in about 6 months if I had to guess.
The decline curve on most shale wells is quicker than for other wells, so the fact that rig counts are dropping means we have about 6 months before we see production start falling as a result. I know several of my clients are in the process of reducing rigs and are pinching back production on producing wells, so we may see production start to fall sooner than 6 months.
0
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:12 pm to Pectus
quote:
Lower gas prices = more tourism!
That isn't going to help North Dakota much. Their ocean fishery and ports won't help prop them up, either.
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 4:16 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:13 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
I understand that, however I was responding to the poster that called my accusation that SA was keeping the spigot open utter bullshite, and that I didnt know what the facts were...I posted the fact for him
nope you asserted that the Saudi's were "flooding the market" which implies that they increased production which is an outright lie. You posted not one single fact to back this up. in fact every single "fact" you posted contradicted your original claim. The only country that has flooded the market is the USA.
My question is were you trying to lie in the first place or just stupid?
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:21 pm to Kajungee
quote:
People who are in South LA and say they will not be affected because they do not work in the oil industry I assume were not around in the early 80's.
Not that the rest of the country was a direct result, but it wasn't some great economy after the downturn. Losing a huge chuck of manufacturing is never a good thing for an economy.
Not to mention money that was headed to workers in North Dakota, Texas, Pennsylvania and other oilfields is now headed overseas.
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 4:22 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:25 pm to cave canem
I never said the Saudis increase production nor am I blaming them. You asked
and I gave them to you.
quote:
Just what do you think is driving prices if it is not "normal" market forces?
and I gave them to you.
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 4:27 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:31 pm to tgrbaitn08
Do me a favor since I'm driving right now and can't look it up. Can you post a graph or data or showing Saudi Arabia production for the past let's say three years year to date? If so then I will retract my statement about them having the spigot wide-open and flooding the market.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:34 pm to anc
Nothing is going to happen to the people working for the big companies. Too much money out there.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:37 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Saudi's having the spigot wide open and flooding the market
How in your pea sized brain is maintaining stable production in the face of rising competition "flooding the market"?
In no way do the Saudi's have there "spigots wide open", most knowledgeable people think they have between 2 and 2.5 million bpd in spare capacity. Or in another words they can add oil to the market any time they like simply by "opening the spigots" which they have not done. You are repeating ignorant facebook rumors as fact.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:41 pm to cave canem
About those graphs...
Can you show Saudis production for the past 3 years? Just curious. Id look it up but I can't right now.
Btw: why are you so mad?
Can you show Saudis production for the past 3 years? Just curious. Id look it up but I can't right now.
Btw: why are you so mad?
This post was edited on 1/6/15 at 4:42 pm
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:43 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Btw: why are these oil folks so mad?
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:47 pm to anc
quote:
Praying for the families of some of these offshore workers that aren't going to have a good start to 2015.
frick em. I'm rejoicing with everyone else.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:47 pm to anc
Oh Noz...frick them...I want cheap gas 
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:47 pm to tgrbaitn08
LINK
There you go, it will let you enter any dates you like and get Saudi'[s production numbers for the range you enter.
Here would be an appropriate range
There you go, it will let you enter any dates you like and get Saudi'[s production numbers for the range you enter.
Here would be an appropriate range
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:48 pm to CptRusty
quote:
I suppose it's inaccurate for me to say that supply/demand (normal market forces) are not driving the price down, but the supply is being kept high, and the price low, even to the detriment of the suppliers for the purpose of squashing their competition. I would consider this "abnormal".
This is not abnormal. Supply is being kept high by high cost producers, not SA. SA's production costs are around $5/bbl. Why should they cut production instead of someone whose cost is $50-75/bbl? They have no debt, ridiculous cash reserves, and the ability to borrow at extremely low rates. Not to mention they can reduce their budget to account for decreased revenue if they want.
Coordinated cuts and anticipated cuts by OPEC were keeping the prices abnormally high. The removal of abnormal forces (prior price collusion) is allowing normal market forces to take over. Once a new price is established SA will rebalance their budget for the new normal.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:54 pm to cave canem
I appreciate that. Interesting.
I would like to see what their production was prior to 2011 when there seems to have been a significant increase in production for the past four years. I can only go by what I see in the graph wonder if there dips and spikes were prior to 2011 like they were from 2011 to present.
I would like to see what their production was prior to 2011 when there seems to have been a significant increase in production for the past four years. I can only go by what I see in the graph wonder if there dips and spikes were prior to 2011 like they were from 2011 to present.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:56 pm to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:56 pm to cave canem
quote:
cave canem
The graph you linked to perfectly shows what I mentioned earlier. Change the graph to show '08 and you'll see the huge dip in their production. They did it as a favor and got screwed for it as they lost market share soon thereafter. They are telling the world that they won't do it again and any businessman worth a lick would do the exact same thing.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:57 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Btw: why are you so mad?
Because dishonesty and willful ignorance are my two largest pet peeves.
In 2004 Saudi Arabia was producing 9.5 mmbpd in 2014 they are producing 9.5mmbpd. So in ten years roughly the same production = flooding the market.
Is this enough charts and graphs for you?
Posted on 1/6/15 at 4:58 pm to cave canem
SA Production
12/14 - 9.6M bbl/d
9/14 - 9.64M bbl/d
9/13 - 10.14M bbl/d
9/12 - 9.80M bbl/d
9/11 - 9.74M bbl/d
9/10 - 9.34M bbl/d
SA is not flooding the market.
12/14 - 9.6M bbl/d
9/14 - 9.64M bbl/d
9/13 - 10.14M bbl/d
9/12 - 9.80M bbl/d
9/11 - 9.74M bbl/d
9/10 - 9.34M bbl/d
SA is not flooding the market.
Posted on 1/6/15 at 5:00 pm to cave canem
Fair enough. You have made your point and I agree. Can't blame the Saudis.
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