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re: Saints +180 to beat Green Bay
Posted on 9/7/11 at 8:54 pm to AlejandroInHouston
Posted on 9/7/11 at 8:54 pm to AlejandroInHouston
quote:
That's an irrelevant set of stats you're throwing out and trying to apply to this game.
maybe if the W/L were split even in this game you could call it irrelevant
the champ wins 85% of the time out of 44 games. That isn't some random number. That is a pattern with a huge sample size.
part of betting games is looking at patterns like this. The Saints could win, but in no way you can spin this as a great bet.
1
Posted on 9/7/11 at 9:34 pm to Lester Earl
The bet isn't great but that stat is irrelavent because the champ usually doesn't face a former champ in an opening game.........
Sorry Earl, can't side with you on that one........
How many of those 44 games did they play against a team with a winning record or playoff appearance the year before? I bet it isn't 25% games.
Sorry Earl, can't side with you on that one........
How many of those 44 games did they play against a team with a winning record or playoff appearance the year before? I bet it isn't 25% games.
Posted on 9/7/11 at 10:10 pm to L S Usetheforce
quote:
How many of those 44 games did they play against a team with a winning record or playoff appearance the year before? I bet it isn't 25% games.
Since they started the kickoff game where the former SB champ is featured, 6 out of the 7 opponents had made the playoffs the year before.
SB champs are 7-0 in said games.
This post was edited on 9/7/11 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 9/9/11 at 12:49 am to Lester Earl
yea, what an irrelevant stat 
Posted on 9/9/11 at 1:30 am to AlejandroInHouston
Posted on 9/9/11 at 7:14 am to RBWilliams8
Should have teased it buddy.
Posted on 9/9/11 at 8:32 pm to Wild Thang
"great" bet...lol
Posted on 9/9/11 at 8:36 pm to Wild Thang
quote:
Should have teased it buddy.
yep
won a big tease with the saints +9 and the over
it was intense
Posted on 9/9/11 at 8:46 pm to touchdown moses
quote:
yea, what an irrelevant stat
It still is irrelevant.............It was a bad bet regardless of how many games the champ won in an opener........
Do you think I played a moneyline on the saints?
Posted on 9/9/11 at 8:56 pm to L S Usetheforce
I bet some of you guys look at the scrolling numbers at the roulette table too
Posted on 9/9/11 at 8:57 pm to CptRusty
It hit black 4 times.........100 bucks says its gonna be red.
Posted on 9/9/11 at 8:58 pm to L S Usetheforce
quote:
It hit black 4 times.........100 bucks says its gonna be red.
bingo
Posted on 9/9/11 at 9:06 pm to L S Usetheforce
quote:
It still is irrelevant.............
lol you are clueless
even moreso when you start comparing the strategy of roulette to betting football games
Posted on 9/10/11 at 9:48 am to Lester Earl
quote:
even moreso when you start comparing the strategy of roulette to betting football games
I'm clueless.......dude, I'll bet you right now I've made more money than you on betting anything in our lifetimes.........and I have a book and a bookie to prove it.........shite even Chicken has had to pay me on this site..
Trends are irrelevant...........bets are made on an individual game scenario, nothing before that matters.
You think most people made the bet because of your stat or because it was GREEN BAY at home, in an opener, with a potent offense?
Be real dude. Trends are fun to look at and talk about but they don't factor as much as what the two teams offer and where the game is played.
And it is exactly like betting roulette because the trend has no relevance into the formula used to make the line in Vegas.
Do you think Vegas added a point because they SB champ was 7-0 in openers?
Come on.
The only trend that matters to a line is the betting trend.
This post was edited on 9/10/11 at 10:03 am
Posted on 9/10/11 at 11:15 am to Lester Earl
Lester you are like the dumb chick in a finance class who keeps arguing with the professor and is the only person in the room who doesn't realize she's making a fool out of herself.
Your dopey trend is public knowledge and is already baked into the spread and money lines. If anything it makes it smarter to bet against the trend and the sheep (like you) who put stock into something so meaningless.
Your dopey trend is public knowledge and is already baked into the spread and money lines. If anything it makes it smarter to bet against the trend and the sheep (like you) who put stock into something so meaningless.
This post was edited on 9/10/11 at 11:27 am
Posted on 9/10/11 at 11:20 am to Wild Thang
quote:
Should have teased it buddy.
Teasing football is for squares. It was an even better wager in hindsight than I thought going in.
I think that we win that game 5 or 6 out of 10 times with no turnover disparity. The Colston fumble killed us and we still could have pulled it out.
This post was edited on 9/10/11 at 11:27 am
Posted on 9/10/11 at 11:49 am to AlejandroInHouston
quote:
Your dopey trend is public knowledge and is already baked into the spread and money lines
of course it is.
THat doesn't have anything to do with you pulling the trigger on the bet....the "great" bet. LOL
quote:
If anything it makes it smarter to bet against the trend and the sheep (like you) who put stock into something so meaningless.
yea, how did that work out?
Im not one to following trends when wagering, but some just stand out and that was one of them.
It's not like you were even hitting the spread; you were betting straight up on the team that loses 85% of the time and calling it a "great bet". Lol. Hiliarious.
i made a killing on the 47.5O, btw.
Posted on 9/10/11 at 11:51 am to AlejandroInHouston
quote:
Your dopey trend is public knowledge and is already baked into the spread and money lines.
Posted on 9/10/11 at 11:55 am to L S Usetheforce
quote:
dude, I'll bet you right now I've made more money than you on betting anything in our lifetimes........
i doubt it, but then again im not into name dropping everything about myself like you are. I can tell you really dont know what you are talking about, so like i said i doubt it
quote:
Trends are irrelevant...........bets are made on an individual game scenario, nothing before that matters.
95% of the time they are. It wasn't irrelevant in this case.
Especially considering the sample size. if it were 3 or 4 games and one side won 85% of the time, i would throw it out. Over the course of 44 games the champ won 85% of the time. And since they started playing the Thurs night opener they have won 100% of the time. But yea, that was a great bet.
Ignoring a trend like that you'll lose money pretty often. quote:
Do you think Vegas added a point because they SB champ was 7-0 in openers?
Im sure it was factored into the original line.
Posted on 9/10/11 at 1:32 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
i doubt it, but then again im not into name dropping everything about myself like you are
Name dropping? What did I name?
You are a poser........always have and always will be.
quote:
But yea, that was a great bet. Ignoring a trend like that you'll lose money pretty often.
Note: I never said this was a GREAT bet. In fact, I said opposite, I just said your statistic was meaningless unless you like pretty #'s. I actually bet over 48 in that game. Paid off pretty good.
This post was edited on 9/10/11 at 1:37 pm
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