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Harder to Predict: NCAA Tourney or Draft First Round?
Posted on 5/6/14 at 10:13 am
Posted on 5/6/14 at 10:13 am
Just a thought that came to mind. I know it's a big deal every year about the impossible odds to pick a perfect bracket, but at least you can pick between two teams every game. In the draft, any number of players could go and any number of trades could be made.
So what say you? Is the Tourney or the First Round (trades included) harder to pick perfectly?
So what say you? Is the Tourney or the First Round (trades included) harder to pick perfectly?
This post was edited on 5/6/14 at 10:16 am
7
Posted on 5/6/14 at 10:25 am to STJ206
First round because there are more variables.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 10:26 am to Sophandros
+1
Posted on 5/6/14 at 10:26 am to STJ206
Statistically I'd have to bet it's the tourney.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 2:37 pm to Breesus
63 vs 32. But, if you had to get the pick AND the team, because of trades, you could argue that its actually 64 right answers. Surprisingly, I'm actually intrigued by this question.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 2:41 pm to KindOfABigDeal
5 to the power of 32 >>>>>>>> 2 to the power of 64
Posted on 5/6/14 at 2:48 pm to STJ206
I mean, to me it's clearly the first round. Each of the 32 teams has probably 3-4 players they're looking at in their slot + 31 other teams to trade with.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 2:51 pm to mattgr1983
quote:What is the 5 for?
5 to the power of 32 >>>>>>>> 2 to the power of 64
Also, 2 to the power of 63 would be correct. In the tourney you only have to make 63 guesses.
In the draft, it's a lot harder than what people have even stated here so far. It's 32 picks, plus the variable of trades at every pick, plus the amount of players that could be picked, which is more than 32(maybe closer to 50ish guys that could all realistically go 1st round any given year).
Not sure what that comes out to without putting in some work, but it's way harder than the tourney.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 3:27 pm to bonethug0108
quote:
What is the 5 for?
I am assigning about a 1/5 chance on average for each individual pick.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 3:41 pm to mattgr1983
quote:I see. I wasn't sure if you had specific variables in mind for each one or not.
I am assigning about a 1/5 chance on average for each individual pick.
Posted on 5/6/14 at 3:50 pm to bonethug0108
Nah just a general estimate. Some picks are probably easier to pick than 1/5 and some are way harder to pick than 1/5.
This post was edited on 5/6/14 at 3:51 pm
Posted on 5/6/14 at 10:14 pm to STJ206
wow awesome question
definitely predicting the first round excactly
definitely predicting the first round excactly
Posted on 5/6/14 at 11:44 pm to FleuryNipples
NCAA Tourney.
The odds of getting that completely correct are 1 in 9 million trillion. Basically impossible.
If you pay a good amount of attention to the football and the draft, you can get most picks correct. And there are only a handful of trades that happen in the 1st round. Some of the smartest bball minds in the world can't even predict the right title game in the ncaa tourney.
Both are ridiculously hard though. But the NCAA tourney is pretty much impossible.
You can get more correct in the 1st round of the draft than ylu would in the ncaa tourney, percentage wise.
The odds of getting that completely correct are 1 in 9 million trillion. Basically impossible.
If you pay a good amount of attention to the football and the draft, you can get most picks correct. And there are only a handful of trades that happen in the 1st round. Some of the smartest bball minds in the world can't even predict the right title game in the ncaa tourney.
Both are ridiculously hard though. But the NCAA tourney is pretty much impossible.
You can get more correct in the 1st round of the draft than ylu would in the ncaa tourney, percentage wise.
This post was edited on 5/6/14 at 11:54 pm
Posted on 5/7/14 at 12:04 am to KG5989
There is no way to determine the percentage chance of picking the entire first round correctly.
I feel like it would be less of a chance than the perfect tournament bracket.
Idk though. There's just so much fluctuation. One pick being wrong completely alters all of the remaining picks to something different potentially.
Where as getting 1 pick wrong in the tournament has no effect on any of the other games outcomes at least in the same round.
It's kinda like the question, "what has a better chance of happening in the NBA, a perfect season 98-0 or a shutout victory in an nba game?"
I feel like it would be less of a chance than the perfect tournament bracket.
Idk though. There's just so much fluctuation. One pick being wrong completely alters all of the remaining picks to something different potentially.
Where as getting 1 pick wrong in the tournament has no effect on any of the other games outcomes at least in the same round.
It's kinda like the question, "what has a better chance of happening in the NBA, a perfect season 98-0 or a shutout victory in an nba game?"
This post was edited on 5/7/14 at 12:27 am
Posted on 5/7/14 at 1:07 am to KG5989
quote:
The exact number of players who are eligible to be drafted every year is not readily available, but with some basic math skills, we should be able to come up with a rough estimate. There are 115 colleges with NCAA Division I football programs, give or take half a dozen in any given year. These colleges can offer up to 85 scholarships per year, but every team has some non-scholarship players, so let’s estimate that there are an average of 110 players on a Division I team. A quick check of the rosters shows that each team has between 10 and 20 seniors. So let’s say that each team has an average of 15 seniors. That makes for a total of 12,650 players, with 1,725 seniors. But that doesn’t count Division II, which has roughly the same number of teams, so double those numbers to 25,300 players and 3,450 seniors. So the first lesson that our foray into math offers is that not every college football player makes it to his senior year, and being offered a scholarship out of high school is no guarantee of eventually entering the NFL draft. So, including the 50 or so underclassmen who leave college and declare themselves eligible for the NFL draft, that’s a pool of 3,500 players who could be drafted.
Obviously, almost none of those 3,500 players will be drafted in the first round; however, in theory they all could be picked.
To be fair, the chances of predicting a perfect 32 round picks without any trades would be like roughly 3,500^32?
Which is 1 in 2.5714460626336 x 10^113.
Basically a number with 114 digits. (And that's assuming there were no trades)
While I agree that it seems easier to predict the draft, if you are fair with the numbers, then predicting the draft is least likely to happen than predicting a perfect bracket.
Mathematically, a perfect draft round (114 digit) is "more impossible" than the
quote:chances of a perfect bracket that you refer to.(73 digit number)
1 in 9 million trillion
This post was edited on 5/7/14 at 2:46 am
Posted on 5/7/14 at 1:45 am to FleuryNipples
quote:
Obviously, almost none of those 3,500 players will be drafted in the first round; however, in theory they all could be picked.
You're theory is flawed though. I can enter my name for the nfl draft. Doesn't mean anything. Anyone can enter their name, doesn't mean they will get selected. And, in theory, over 300 college teams could get selected to go to the ncaa tourney.
There are about 50 players with a realistic chance to be drafted in the 1st.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 2:12 am to STJ206
if you're taking into account predicting draft trades, NCAA tourney is easier.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 2:20 am to KG5989
quote:
You're theory is flawed though. I can enter my name for the nfl draft. Doesn't mean anything.
Have you just played your final year of eligibility in college football? If so, then yes you are one of the 3,500.
If not, it is irrelevant.
If we count fans like you and I (assuming you are not a senior college football player), the number approaches millions. That's non sense.
This is only counting the 3,500 players that are literally senior college football players and are draft eligible in theory. Also the few juniors that come out each year is averaged at 50. (This year there's 98 I believe)
quote:
over 300 college teams could get selected to go to the ncaa tourn
Irrelevant. At the point that people fill out their brackets, the teams in the tournament and the seeds are known facts.
This discussion is between filling out a known 68 team bracket perfectly vs predicting a perfect 32 rounds of an NFL draft that has give or take 3,500 possible players that have physically played their senior year or declared early.
This post was edited on 5/7/14 at 2:35 am
Posted on 5/7/14 at 7:32 am to STJ206
Picking the entire tourney is more difficult than the picking the 1st round of the draft.
Posted on 5/7/14 at 7:42 am to TigerintheNO
Nope
It's 2,00000000000000000... (114 zeros)
Vs
9,00000000000... (73 zeros)
It's 2,00000000000000000... (114 zeros)
Vs
9,00000000000... (73 zeros)
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