re: Bill Simmons says Zion wont be a Pelican in 5 or 6 years

It drove me nuts because it was a poorly thought out argument that amounts to an after-the-fact rationalization from someone in the0 sports punditry bubble.

I explained very concretely what the trend was I worry about long-term

Superstars increasingly forcing their way out of smaller markets or leaving in free agency to coalesce in glamour markets, often under circumstances violating both the letter and the spirit of NBA rules. Which seems to occur with greater frequency and brazenenss. The effect of which is likely going to shrink the non-glamour team’s ability to retain and maintain talent, to win championships. At the moment that trend has helped produce parity, as the superstars have moved to new or revitalized glamour markets and enough small market teams have been wise in their roster construction, but it seems the trend is pushing us toward superstar concentration long-term. In a more corrosive and broken way than came before. Arguments looking at only this season or next miss the argument being made entiriely.

Let’s look at the top free agents this summer, or superstars that moved from their teams, where did they go:

AD: LA
Kawhi: LA
Paul George: LA
Durant: NY
Kyrie: NY


The top 5 players all pushed into two states.

You mention TV ratings, but that is yet another misleading stat. The league itself has grown, so tv ratings in general are up from
5-10 years ago, and it makes sense that when there is one overwhelming super team in a glamour market that those tv ratings are great, but the league needs more than one team to have great ratings to be successful, it needs a lot more than national tv ratings period. And Lebron James move from Cleveland demonstrates this. As viewership concentrated westward, the NBA saw a major drop in overall prime time viewership as eastern matchups floundered early on without any major marketable teams or stars early on in the east that people tuned into see on prime time. The league was in a healthier place viewership wise with Lebron in Cleveland balancing out interest than going to a glamour market in the same state as the other glamour team at the moment.

And let’s all summarize things again for clarity. My argument is NOT that such a situation is unsustainable, or that it wont be ok for the league, even move things in a positive financial direction, but that it is likely not the OPTIMAL path LONG-TERM, and it seems even Silver kind of agrees with this.