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re: Why do they keep racing American Pharoah?
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:33 pm to vengeanceofrain
Posted on 8/3/15 at 12:33 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:
. Because I would literally take a shotgun and kill anyone who wants to tell me American Pharoah is the best race horse since X if he retires and never faces an older horse.
I'm not sure you know what literally means
2
Posted on 8/3/15 at 1:06 pm to BilJ
Posted on 8/3/15 at 7:40 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:
i don't think i'd put ghostzapper on my top 10 list of all time horses and I LOVE ghostzapper.
Well, I would argue that until we both turned blue in the face. That horse won stakes races from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles. He was so versatile. He's easily my favorite horse.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 7:46 pm to BamaHater
Cause he's a fricking race horse.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 9:13 pm to Bho
I can't talk. My favorite horse of all time is the crazy Sunday Silence.
I understand that I am one of few
I understand that I am one of few
Posted on 8/3/15 at 9:31 pm to Aspercel
Just saying he won the tc... hes a good hoeser but from a handicaing stand point he hasn't beat anyone. There are no hard spuns or.street senses in this three year ild crop.
Horses like chrome aren't going to let him lollygag to the front like he did in the last three races and a horse like shared belief unlike the 3 yos this year can and will run him down if he runs too fast early.
Not saying he sucks but ge truly hasnt been punched in thr mouth yet.
Do i think by November he will be better than shared belief..honestly yeah. But im not taking 2to1 on that wager.
Horses like chrome aren't going to let him lollygag to the front like he did in the last three races and a horse like shared belief unlike the 3 yos this year can and will run him down if he runs too fast early.
Not saying he sucks but ge truly hasnt been punched in thr mouth yet.
Do i think by November he will be better than shared belief..honestly yeah. But im not taking 2to1 on that wager.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 9:44 pm to vengeanceofrain
This is the way i see it and the way i will play it.
Baffert can go to the classic undefeated or he can risk a loss and win the classic
In other words he not going to win another restricted race then win the bc. Only one 3 yo in the last 20 years..byren... has won the classic as a 3 yo without winning a non restricted race before... and last year's 3yo crop was decent better than the older horses. Before that cat thief did it in probably the deepest three yo class oc all time
This is a huge, huge class jump. Normal people do not comprehend that 3yos are not the best horses in racing 90 percent of the time
Baffert can go to the classic undefeated or he can risk a loss and win the classic
In other words he not going to win another restricted race then win the bc. Only one 3 yo in the last 20 years..byren... has won the classic as a 3 yo without winning a non restricted race before... and last year's 3yo crop was decent better than the older horses. Before that cat thief did it in probably the deepest three yo class oc all time
This is a huge, huge class jump. Normal people do not comprehend that 3yos are not the best horses in racing 90 percent of the time
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:35 pm to vengeanceofrain
quote:
This is a huge, huge class jump. Normal people do not comprehend that 3yos are not the best horses in racing 90 percent of the time
Who is?
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:36 pm to vengeanceofrain
I mean I understand the class jump you are talking about and it is a concern. Shared Belief is going to have to be fit for sure. And really this older crop of horses don't blow me away by any means. Could AP get smoked in the classic? Sure. But if you don't take him at 2-1 you're insane.
Posted on 8/3/15 at 10:41 pm to Bho
I'm confused by this thread. People are saying AP isn't an all-time great because he hasn't done anything against a field that isn't age restricted. And then these people are also saying 3 year olds aren't the best.
I don't know anything about horseracing,but I do know that the above makes no sense. Why would it make sense to judge a racehorse against horses that are always going to be physically better? Wouldn't it make much more sense to judge a racehorse by how he does against those in his age group?
I don't know anything about horseracing,but I do know that the above makes no sense. Why would it make sense to judge a racehorse against horses that are always going to be physically better? Wouldn't it make much more sense to judge a racehorse by how he does against those in his age group?
Posted on 8/4/15 at 1:41 am to SystemsGo
the true test of a horse has always been, is, and always will be against 100% open company.
This was the knock on zenyatta for years. She "hid" in her division and avoided running against the older males and the one time she did before she lost, she did on her home track on a surface half of them hated. Then the one time she went across the country and ran in 100% open company on dirt, she got beat by a good, but pretty avg "good horse" in blame. Blame is good but he's not a world beater.
Let me put it in football terms.
right now, American Pharaoh is Oregon. Oregon is fricking good. No one is not saying Oregon is good. But there is a difference between beating Arizona State, Arizona and Oregon State and then going up against, Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State, etc.
would you call Oregon the best school of all time because they swept the pac 12? Hell no lol. It's no different.
Consitution is not an Alabama but he's a... Ole Miss. Shared Belief is like Alabama. Honor Code is like Oaklahoma. Moreno is like South Carolina. California Crome is like... Georgia. Private Zone, Tonalist, Lea, Main Sequence are like Miss State, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU
that's just talking about american horses. What if Solow comes over and runs in the classic. He's the best horse in europe now and he's GOOD. or Free Eagle. and I can see him he has just enough dirt in his pedigree where i can see them trying
my point is this. In football, would you say that Orgeon, is better than,ARkansas, Clemson, Ole Miss, South Carolia, Georgia, etc? I would.
however, the same thing that people say about the SEC is that if you put them all in one conference, and make oregon go against each school week after week and not not beat up on hawaii and oregon state and colorado and whatever the frick, they'd problaby lose a game or two.
My point is from a pure talent stadpoint, Pharoah is as good or better than everyone else in the race sans shared belief. Timeform has him rated the highest horse in the world.
the point is, when you get to open company in particular the classic, EVERYONE CAN frickING RUN. Event he worst horses in the race are capable of throwing up a 110-115 beyer which is good enough to win some classics.
Half the horses pharoah has ran against could be running downhill with a 50 mph wind and would not crack a 100 beyer speed figure lol
that's the point. Tailing off one or 2 horses that are the only horses that can beat you and beating time is a whole different animal then beating 11 other horses that are legit grade 1 handicap caliber horses.
The 2010 classic is a perfect example. The most important part of that race was the first 50 seconds, zenyatta's usual don't give a frick gallop wasn't gonna cut it against this caliber of horse. she adjusted and ran her arse off. But there's a difference between running down switch lol and running down Blame and Quality Road
Not only that, in more simplistic terms, he's just not that fast lol. He's FAST. but he's not Ghostzapper fast. Ghostzapper ran 5 consecutive 120+ beyers that's fricking unhuman lol. That's big red level running. To put that in perspective the highest this year so far is Consitution (and shared belief) at 111 in the Donn handicap (San Antonio). AP's this year highest has been 105. Which is fast. But no where near dominant. Curlin in 2007 would have beaten AP at his fastest so far by 10 lengths.
There are 6 older horses, consitution, shared belief, lea, Race Day, Effinex, Tonalist that have run faster than AP have this year.
Great horses are fast horses. the day he runs a 115+ beyer i'd consider putting him up there.
And the thing is, I think he can. I'd bet money he can. But are you really gonna put your money on him getting punched in the mouth te first time by horses that have just as much getty up as he does, overcoming it and winning? I won't. To me that's burning money.
if AP came back next year he'd have a chance to be one of the best ever, period. The development between 3 and 4 is huge. but he won't. and he's not there yet.
This was the knock on zenyatta for years. She "hid" in her division and avoided running against the older males and the one time she did before she lost, she did on her home track on a surface half of them hated. Then the one time she went across the country and ran in 100% open company on dirt, she got beat by a good, but pretty avg "good horse" in blame. Blame is good but he's not a world beater.
Let me put it in football terms.
right now, American Pharaoh is Oregon. Oregon is fricking good. No one is not saying Oregon is good. But there is a difference between beating Arizona State, Arizona and Oregon State and then going up against, Ohio State, Alabama, Florida State, etc.
would you call Oregon the best school of all time because they swept the pac 12? Hell no lol. It's no different.
Consitution is not an Alabama but he's a... Ole Miss. Shared Belief is like Alabama. Honor Code is like Oaklahoma. Moreno is like South Carolina. California Crome is like... Georgia. Private Zone, Tonalist, Lea, Main Sequence are like Miss State, Arkansas, Tennessee and LSU
that's just talking about american horses. What if Solow comes over and runs in the classic. He's the best horse in europe now and he's GOOD. or Free Eagle. and I can see him he has just enough dirt in his pedigree where i can see them trying
my point is this. In football, would you say that Orgeon, is better than,ARkansas, Clemson, Ole Miss, South Carolia, Georgia, etc? I would.
however, the same thing that people say about the SEC is that if you put them all in one conference, and make oregon go against each school week after week and not not beat up on hawaii and oregon state and colorado and whatever the frick, they'd problaby lose a game or two.
My point is from a pure talent stadpoint, Pharoah is as good or better than everyone else in the race sans shared belief. Timeform has him rated the highest horse in the world.
the point is, when you get to open company in particular the classic, EVERYONE CAN frickING RUN. Event he worst horses in the race are capable of throwing up a 110-115 beyer which is good enough to win some classics.
Half the horses pharoah has ran against could be running downhill with a 50 mph wind and would not crack a 100 beyer speed figure lol
that's the point. Tailing off one or 2 horses that are the only horses that can beat you and beating time is a whole different animal then beating 11 other horses that are legit grade 1 handicap caliber horses.
The 2010 classic is a perfect example. The most important part of that race was the first 50 seconds, zenyatta's usual don't give a frick gallop wasn't gonna cut it against this caliber of horse. she adjusted and ran her arse off. But there's a difference between running down switch lol and running down Blame and Quality Road
Not only that, in more simplistic terms, he's just not that fast lol. He's FAST. but he's not Ghostzapper fast. Ghostzapper ran 5 consecutive 120+ beyers that's fricking unhuman lol. That's big red level running. To put that in perspective the highest this year so far is Consitution (and shared belief) at 111 in the Donn handicap (San Antonio). AP's this year highest has been 105. Which is fast. But no where near dominant. Curlin in 2007 would have beaten AP at his fastest so far by 10 lengths.
There are 6 older horses, consitution, shared belief, lea, Race Day, Effinex, Tonalist that have run faster than AP have this year.
Great horses are fast horses. the day he runs a 115+ beyer i'd consider putting him up there.
And the thing is, I think he can. I'd bet money he can. But are you really gonna put your money on him getting punched in the mouth te first time by horses that have just as much getty up as he does, overcoming it and winning? I won't. To me that's burning money.
if AP came back next year he'd have a chance to be one of the best ever, period. The development between 3 and 4 is huge. but he won't. and he's not there yet.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 1:47 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 3:59 am to vengeanceofrain
I understand what you're saying, but I think you might have totally understood the point I was trying to get across in my previous post.
At what point is a racehorse in his prime? How long does that prime last? Do great horses generally tend to run up to and throughout their physical primes?
To use a tennis analogy: you're basically you're saying that AP just won the Junior Wimbledon Championships, and so we don't know how good he really is until we see him play against Novak Djokovic.
My response is that the guy who won the Wimbledon Juniors -- even if we assume he's an early bloomer like Nadal or Sampras were -- is going to get absolutely smoked by Novak Djokovic. So we wouldn't necessarily learn much if he goes against an open field and loses. Now if he goes against an open field and wins, I imagine that speaks volumes to how good he is.
In sum, it seems like the open field events aren't going to be able to tell you much about the historical greatness of a horse if he's racing against horses he wouldn't be expected to beat because of age. And the length of time that a horse remains in his prime, and the amount of horses that continue racing through those prime years, would determine how much could ever be learned from an open race.
In other words, if horses are quickly in and out of their primes, then it's gonna be difficult to make apples to apples comparisons between them (unless we're just looking at times and splits and such).
At what point is a racehorse in his prime? How long does that prime last? Do great horses generally tend to run up to and throughout their physical primes?
To use a tennis analogy: you're basically you're saying that AP just won the Junior Wimbledon Championships, and so we don't know how good he really is until we see him play against Novak Djokovic.
My response is that the guy who won the Wimbledon Juniors -- even if we assume he's an early bloomer like Nadal or Sampras were -- is going to get absolutely smoked by Novak Djokovic. So we wouldn't necessarily learn much if he goes against an open field and loses. Now if he goes against an open field and wins, I imagine that speaks volumes to how good he is.
In sum, it seems like the open field events aren't going to be able to tell you much about the historical greatness of a horse if he's racing against horses he wouldn't be expected to beat because of age. And the length of time that a horse remains in his prime, and the amount of horses that continue racing through those prime years, would determine how much could ever be learned from an open race.
In other words, if horses are quickly in and out of their primes, then it's gonna be difficult to make apples to apples comparisons between them (unless we're just looking at times and splits and such).
Posted on 8/4/15 at 4:00 am to SystemsGo
I had to look up "beyer". I've actually learned a lot from this thread.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 7:05 am to vengeanceofrain
I just want to say that it's a shame solow can't run in the arc because he's a gelding, but hopefully that sends him over here. I made a good bit on him in Dubai and he just keeps looking great. Drop dead gorgeous to boot.
I'm one of those that knocked zenyatta. Spent her career in stakes fields mostly made up of glorified optional claimers.
Bet blame and gave him out on here.
Team Rachel all the way
Speaking of Rachel, her 3 yr old campaign (or the latter half) may have done her in, but it definitely showed she was worthy of all she got. They did not hold back.
I'm one of those that knocked zenyatta. Spent her career in stakes fields mostly made up of glorified optional claimers.
Bet blame and gave him out on here.
Team Rachel all the way
Speaking of Rachel, her 3 yr old campaign (or the latter half) may have done her in, but it definitely showed she was worthy of all she got. They did not hold back.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 7:11 am to vengeanceofrain
I completely get what you're saying about AP and his Beyer numbers. What was it in the Haskell? The thing misleading about those numbers is most races he's been on cruise control. I mean didn't Bellamy Road run like. 121 before the derby? How'd that work. The difference in a horse like that and Ghostzapper is that Ghostzapper didn't need the lead. He got it most of the time because he was just that much faster. AP doesn't need the lead either. And most of his trips he didn't get the lead Victor kept him wide to keep him out of trouble. Victor knew he had the best horse. It will definitely take his best effort in the Classic and many greats have been beaten in that race. So I guess we will just have to wait and see.
ETA: AP hasn't hid. Dortmund did in Cali and we rarely hear from him now.
ETA: AP hasn't hid. Dortmund did in Cali and we rarely hear from him now.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 7:12 am
Posted on 8/4/15 at 7:34 am to Bho
And I hope he stays over there
Posted on 8/4/15 at 10:16 am to Bho
AP got a 109 Beyer for his Haskell. It could have been significantly higher had he not been gear down 1/2 way down the stretch. Your more likely to see the big beyers when horses put up good times on slow tracks. Materiality got a 110 in the Florida derby on a really slow track at Gulfstream.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 12:52 pm to Easye921
The only 2 older horses that have any chance (very slim) of beating AP in the BC Classic are Lea and Honor Code. Shared Belief won't be back from injury and Bayern isn't the same horse. It's his race to lose. I for one, think Frosted is the 2nd best 3 year old, despite losing to TX Red and a shoe falling off. This horse wants to go a 1 1/4. Too bad he was born the same year as AP.
This post was edited on 8/4/15 at 1:26 pm
Posted on 8/4/15 at 2:58 pm to ChurchillVFW
BTW, Zayat announced within the hour he is running in the Travers. This race will not be a gimme putt. Saratoga is the graveyard of champions lol.
Posted on 8/4/15 at 5:25 pm to ChurchillVFW
quote:
BTW, Zayat announced within the hour he is running in the Travers. This race will not be a gimme putt. Saratoga is the graveyard of champions lol.
Can't believe they are going there.
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