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Too early in the week to talk about the Preakness?

Posted on 5/15/18 at 10:41 am
Posted by Tuscaloosa
11x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
46604 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 10:41 am
Saw some interesting stats on Twitter earlier...

Justify was the first horse that didn't race as a 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby since Apollo won in 1882.

All four of Bob Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness.

As far as betting the finish, the last time the favorite won and the 2nd choice ran second was 1981 when favored Pleasant Colony won and 2nd choice Bold Ego ran second.

Posted by Jones
Member since Oct 2005
90479 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 10:49 am to
quote:


Justify was the first horse that didn't race as a 2-year-old to win the Kentucky Derby since Apollo won in 1882.


Did you not watch the derby?
Posted by Winston Cup
Dallas Cowboys Fan
Member since May 2016
65494 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 10:50 am to
8 horse field. ho-hum. justify probably run away again, so heres some videos of drunks running on porta-potties:





Posted by Tuscaloosa
11x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
46604 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 10:59 am to
Posted by Tuscaloosa
11x Award Winning SECRant user
Member since Dec 2011
46604 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 11:32 am to
Another tidbit from Chris Fallica:

quote:

FWIW the last four horses to win the Derby on an off track (Always Dreaming, Orb, Super Saver, Mine that Bird) all lost in the Preakness.
Posted by AA77
Member since Jan 2016
3796 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 11:35 am to
Used to go when I lived in DC, that shite was fun. This was in the early aughts they’ve since “cleaned” it up though.
Posted by KosmoCramer
Member since Dec 2007
76516 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 12:06 pm to
quote:

FWIW the last four horses to win the Derby on an off track (Always Dreaming, Orb, Super Saver, Mine that Bird) all lost in the Preakness.


The fact that he was the favorite and powered through the slop relegates this to a moot point.
Posted by SeeeeK
some where
Member since Sep 2012
28049 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 1:01 pm to
As long as the track isn't a conveyor belt like the derby is, favorite is very vulnerable.

The #5 who ran a bang up 3rd, is sitting on a big race or a huge bounce. He runs his race he goes right by. He was charging like a bad out of hell, then he was spinning his wheels at the 1/16th to the wire. Track was a conveyor belt the last 1/16th. The favorite and the #6 were dead tired, and still no one caught either of them.

Have to see how the field lays out

Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
105878 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 2:08 pm to
I’m going to include him...


But I’m going to try to beat him.


The 4 horses listed also never won another race

Also, sporting chance may decide that with the defection of free drop billy, he should slam into justify instead
This post was edited on 5/15/18 at 2:12 pm
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
105878 posts
Posted on 5/15/18 at 8:35 pm to
It’s going to be another muddy mess
Posted by SeeeeK
some where
Member since Sep 2012
28049 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 7:45 am to
i have Fridays and Saturdays PP's


seeeek@charter.net if you want
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
105878 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 9:07 am to
You know I do

So you are in Nebraska? I read a story on the cute chestnut that just retired. Diamond jim or something similar? Wish I’d known about him when he was running.
Posted by Clyde Tipton
Planet Earth
Member since Dec 2007
38732 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 10:07 am to
I like Quip with the rest he's gotten since the Arkansas Derby. Bravazo wasn't on my radar after the LA derby, but surprised me in the Kentucky Derby.

I'm thinking I'll make 2 superfecta bets.

7-5-1-8
7-5-8-1

Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
105878 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 11:37 am to
It would be nice to see quip beat justify. Trainer would be happy since he had the horse before he was sent to baffert.
Posted by SeeeeK
some where
Member since Sep 2012
28049 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 2:12 pm to
bump
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
105878 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 4:11 pm to
Good magic seems much more on the forhand galloping now than before the derby...


:-/
Posted by PANTHER
Bunkie
Member since Oct 2004
2268 posts
Posted on 5/17/18 at 6:38 pm to
I am going 7/5/1,3,8 in the tri. I think Justify and Good Magic are guaranteed 1-2places
Posted by VernonPLSUfan
Leesville, La.
Member since Sep 2007
15832 posts
Posted on 5/18/18 at 7:25 am to
I boxed Good Magic and Justify just before the race. Had a hunch. Well it wasn't a hunch as much as a trend. Noticed several races the winner and place horses were in numerical sequence, like 7/8, or 8/7, 3/4 or 4/3, you get it. Wasn't a Justify fan to I lumped Good Magic with him, thank goodness. Will do it again and thinking of throwing in another for a trifecta. Any tips on todays action?
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
105878 posts
Posted on 5/18/18 at 8:50 am to
I used good magic because I liked how he was training into the derby. This time, not so much. He’s all front wheel drive which makes me think he may be a little sore somewhere behind. I’m probably not using him.
Posted by Clyde Tipton
Planet Earth
Member since Dec 2007
38732 posts
Posted on 5/18/18 at 9:29 am to
quote:

I boxed Good Magic and Justify
quote:

Will do it again


You better bring some big bucks, because Justify's 1-2 odds and GM's 3-1 odds won't pay much. That's why I'm boxing horses behind them on superfectas.

Eta:

Right now I have 4 bets...

7-5-1-8
7-5-8-1
7-5-1-6
7-5-6-1

I left Lone Sailor out.
This post was edited on 5/18/18 at 9:33 am
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