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re: The Unofficial Great Great Roland Garros Thread 2021
Posted on 6/8/21 at 3:24 pm to MidnightVibe
Posted on 6/8/21 at 3:24 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
Teetsy will work over Alex
Has to get there first.
Even at 2-0 it can’t be fun trying to close Med out. I feel like his 3-2 loss to Rafa at the US Open after being down 2-0 was more impressive than any of his wins.
This post was edited on 6/8/21 at 3:57 pm
1
Posted on 6/8/21 at 4:04 pm to bayoucracka
Grabbed a little Danny Medz at +1100
ETA: Props to Shitpants. If you can get Med to make 44 UE in 3 sets, you gotta be doing something right.
ETA: Props to Shitpants. If you can get Med to make 44 UE in 3 sets, you gotta be doing something right.
This post was edited on 6/8/21 at 4:44 pm
Posted on 6/8/21 at 6:19 pm to bayoucracka
quote:
ETA: Props to Shitpants. If you can get Med to make 44 UE in 3 sets, you gotta be doing something right.
Dude is strong.
Posted on 6/8/21 at 9:04 pm to MidnightVibe
Jeff Sackman's odds to win RG: LINK
Rafa 32.9%
Shitsypants 26%
Novak 18.9%
Alex 18.6%
Berretini 2.7%
Schwartzman 0.9%
Rafa 32.9%
Shitsypants 26%
Novak 18.9%
Alex 18.6%
Berretini 2.7%
Schwartzman 0.9%
Posted on 6/8/21 at 9:24 pm to MidnightVibe
quote:
Novak 18.9%
Alex 18.6%
Well this is ridiculous.
ETA: I guess I didn't consider the fact that Zverev is already in the semis, while Novak is only in the quarterfinals... but still.
Found the flaw... He only gives Tsitsipas a 55% chance of beating Zverev in the semis. The odds of Zverev beating Tsitsipas are much lower than that.
This post was edited on 6/8/21 at 9:28 pm
Posted on 6/8/21 at 11:06 pm to Eat Your Crow
Not sure why Sackman even does these. Diego is in the +1300 range, which is roughly 7%. Not that betting odds are perfect, but still far more accurate than anything else.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 8:06 am to bayoucracka
Sakkari takes out Swiatek, who had been rolling. I think they said her coach was going to attend law school, but got a call to hit with Sharapova at IMG. He hangs out there, coaches Collins, and now Sakkari, who will probably win RG. He is probably banging these chicks, too. Good for him, although Sakkari looks like a tough chick.
Rafa time.
Rafa time.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 8:20 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
and now Sakkari, who will probably win RG
I'd take the field.
quote:
Sakkari looks like a tough chick.
She is yoked.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 9:26 am to Eat Your Crow
First set to Rafa. Schwartz up a break early in the second. Glancing at some comments on Talk Tennis, they say this is a WTA match. But, that's Schwartzman.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:10 am to Eat Your Crow
One set apiece now.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:11 am to Bunk Moreland
Great match they have going on.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:13 am to Chadzilla
A lot of unforced errors from Nadal as of late.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:16 am to Chadzilla
Yes it is but Rafa will eventually wear him down.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:19 am to dukke v
quote:
Yes it is but Rafa will eventually wear him down.
Doubt it. He will just have to make less mistakes, particularly with his forehand.
This post was edited on 6/9/21 at 10:21 am
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:21 am to Eat Your Crow
How many 5 set matches has this dude played compared to Rafa?????
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:26 am to Eat Your Crow
Rafa definitely needs to cut down on the mistakes. Has always been a mental thing with Rafa. Doesn't have a weakness otherwise.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:31 am to Eat Your Crow
quote:
e odds of Zverev beating Tsitsipas are much lower than that.
I agree
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:41 am to bayoucracka
quote:
Not sure why Sackman even does these.
Because they're easy for him to do based on everything he now has at his fingertips with his website (which is really an incredible thing...Sackman is a smart focking dude to have figured out how to create what he did).
Sackman's ELO ratings are far from perfect. They are better than ATP ratings, but not better than more modified and particularized versions of an ELO system, or systems using much more advanced mathematical techniques* But they're better than nothing.
_______
*Seriously, go to google scholar and type in "tennis prediction". Will blow your damn mind, and if you're both a bit of a degenerate and a bit of a nerd like myself, will open up a massive rabbit hole. Every PhD candidate and his goddamn cousin has written a thesis on how to use various techniques/frameworks to predict tennis match results more accurately than betting markets. And the number of articles in technical journals is quite astounding.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:41 am to MidnightVibe
Rafa is definitely in for a fight.
Posted on 6/9/21 at 10:43 am to MidnightVibe
Some days you just don’t have it. Today looks like one of those days for Rafa.
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