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re: The Unofficial 2018 Non-GS Tennis Thread

Posted on 8/10/18 at 12:49 am to
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 12:49 am to
quote:

before he maybe wins Toronto and Cincinnati and his odds rise significantly.

Thought you meant Rafa at first, in which case that wouldn’t make sense.

Just be aware that if Zverev gets hurt and misses the Open, you won’t get a refund.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 2:38 am to
There's something going on with the conditions at this tourney that I haven't been able to figure out yet. I've only seen parts of about 5 or 6 matches, but the majority of the tennis I've seen has just been bad. I'm talking numerous shanks, crossed-up footing, routine rally balls going 13 feet long, short balls being dumped into the net for no reason, etc. Some guys have given up and started chipping every return back. I've even seen two complete whiffs on 2nd-serve returns.

Regarding 1st-serve returns, I've never seen a tournament with numbers anywhere near this bad. Some examples:

Goffin 0/27 vs. Raonic
Tiafoe 5/47 (1/39 in 1st 2 sets) vs. Raonic
Donaldson 3/30 vs. Paire
Edmund 7/35 vs. Schwartzman (Yeah, that Schwartzman)
Pospisil 2/24 vs. Coric
Verdasco 4/20 vs. Gojowczyk in a 6-2, 6-2 win
Ferrer 6/36 vs. Klahn
Coric 7/52 vs. Cilic
Wawrinka 8/55 vs. Kyrgios
Mannarino 3/27 vs. Querrey
Krajinovic 5/33 vs. Khachanov
Johnson 5/30 vs. Fognini
Dzumhur 5/41 vs. Tsitsipas
Nadal 3/17 vs. Paire
Querrey 9/49 vs. Schwartzman (Yeah, same one)
Thiem 2/40 vs. Tsitsipas
Djokovic 9/55 vs. Tsitsipas
Medvedev 1/23 vs. Zverev

I even left out 4 or 5 examples from Isner and Anderson matches that were equally as bad.

The 0/27 for Goffin is not only the worst effort of his career... it's the only time he's been under 7% in a completed match. Medvedev's 4.3% is the 2nd-worst in his career. The 5% for Thiem is also his 2nd-worst. We're talking about entire careers with several hundreds of matches played across different surfaces.

Djokovic is arguably the greatest returner the sport has ever seen, and he went 2 full sets today without even creating a break point chance, and finished the match 0-2 on break points. I would say Tsitsipas has an above-average ATP serve, but it's clearly not like facing Isner or Raonic.

On the flip side, the 1st-serve win percentages of 81.6 and 80% for Diego are both in the top 10 of his career. If you sort Shitsipants by matches vs. players in the top 100, his 3 Toronto matches are all among the top 15 in his career, with the 95% vs. Thiem being his career best.

You might say, "Well, in the case of Goffin, it makes sense that his career-worst match on returns would come vs. Raonic" or "Tsitsipas is playing his best tennis right now", and I wouldn't argue with either statement. But with all of the data above, you can't tell me everything is kosher.

The question is... WTF? That's what I don't understand. There's been the usual chatter about the courts being slow, but nothing out of the ordinary. If anything, slower courts would produce the opposite results on serve, and you wouldn't see rallies looking so awkward.

I pulled up DecoTurf on Wikipedia, and apparently it is used at the following events:

Dubai Championships
Canada Masters
Cincinnati Masters
US Open
China Open
Japan Open
Shanghai Masters

These are mostly faster hard courts, but since Shanghai is commonly referred to as extremely fast, I have to assume that there are various types of DecoTurf. It's a cushioned surface, so maybe it reacts to weather differently than a regular hard court? I don't know.

Basically I'm left with one, or both, of these possible conclusions:

1. The constant rain and humidity doesn't mesh well the surface, and makes for awkward bounces.
2. The players who didn't play the American hard court tourneys in the previous two weeks were making a transition from either clay or grass and were not prepared at all.

Any other ideas?
This post was edited on 8/10/18 at 2:42 am
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 3:12 am to
Given the above numbers, I have to play Shittypants +4 Games. If he gets steamrolled by Zverev again after not being broken once in the tournament, I'll truly be shocked. He might end up being the first player ever to give himself a concussion.

For those who like longshots, a Cilic/Tsits parlay pays around 12/1.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68351 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 6:49 am to
I thought some commentators said DC is super fast. I know Cincy usually gets that label. No idea about Toronto or Montreal. Here is what Rafa had to say a few days ago.

quote:

“I think what can happen here or in Cincinnati will not have a big impact on the US Open,” the three-time Rogers Cup champion said. “Of course the good results would be good for the confidence but the conditions are completely different – courts, the ball especially.

“I know from my experience if I play well here and Cincinnati it’s a little bit easier to play well at the US Open but not decisive. Last year I didn’t play very well (in Montreal) but I played well at the US Open and won it.

“In 2005 I won here and I lost third round at the US Open. If you win, you play well in these two events and create this extra confidence to play well there, but if you lose it doesn’t matter, the conditions are completely different.”

LINK

Indian Wells uses Plexipave. People have said that slower hard courts usually have more sand in the concrete.
This post was edited on 8/10/18 at 8:30 am
Posted by Kingpenm3
Xanadu
Member since Aug 2011
9918 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 9:37 am to
I'm pumped about this Tsitsi/Zverev match.

I wonder if Zverev would say that he is 100% after his injuries? So hard to tell these days as quick as the players are to get a trainer on the court.

Posted by The Egg
Houston, TX
Member since Dec 2004
83731 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 12:49 pm to
gotta say, kevo has been playing extremely good tennis as of late
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 1:25 pm to
quote:

the ball especially

Ahhh this could definitely explain it. I thought all Masters tournies had to use Penn ATP balls, but that might not be true.

And Shitsy gets broken twice in the first 3 games.
This post was edited on 8/10/18 at 1:32 pm
Posted by BayouBengals03
lsu14always
Member since Nov 2007
99999 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 1:55 pm to
Zverev pain train baw

He comin
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68351 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 3:15 pm to
Tsetse and Alex in a dogfight.

Cracka sometime gets annoyed that I am making the proclamation this early, but these young baws like Zverev appear to have some problems with 3 out of 5 set tennis.
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 3:24 pm to
Not me. That’s a fact.

Now if you said something like...
quote:

Alex is winning the Open. Book it.


This post was edited on 8/10/18 at 3:27 pm
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 4:20 pm to
Zverev: “I don’t think he played well. It was an absolute pathetic match.”

He will probably take some heat for that, but he’s not wrong.
Posted by little billy
Orange County, CA
Member since May 2015
8469 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 7:30 pm to
It's rare to see Rafa just getting killed. It's still just 4-1 in the first but Cilic is kicking his arse
Posted by emanresu
Member since Dec 2009
9868 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 7:53 pm to
Absolute spanking. Cilic playing out of his mind. Rafa being uncharacteristically inaccurate on gimme shots.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68351 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 7:55 pm to
Cracka was right about the shanking weirdness. Maybe Cilic is playing that well, I don't know. Rafa fought off a bunch of set points. I could see him work his way back into this.
This post was edited on 8/10/18 at 7:56 pm
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68351 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 8:11 pm to
Rafa up a break in the second. Game on.
Posted by emanresu
Member since Dec 2009
9868 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 8:37 pm to
I've never seen rafa shank so much.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68351 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 8:39 pm to
Back on serve now. Weird match in the sense that Cilic destroyed in the first, yet Rafa was coming on at the end. Feels like Rafa completely turned the tables in the second, yet we're back on serve.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
68351 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 8:45 pm to
Wow, Chilly is so mentally soft. Owning things off of a break, up 40-15, chunks an overhead, gets emo everywhere, and next thing you know, you're in a third set.
Posted by little billy
Orange County, CA
Member since May 2015
8469 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 8:47 pm to
If you put a lump of coal up Cilic's arse in that last game he would shite out a diamond
Posted by bayoucracka
Member since Sep 2015
6898 posts
Posted on 8/10/18 at 8:50 pm to


No ball, court, or weather on Earth would cause an overhead miss like that.
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