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Started By
Message
re: Seahawks QB Russell Wilson isn’t worth $100 million
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:07 pm to League Champs
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:07 pm to League Champs
quote:
The defensive handbook is out on him. Green Bay turned it into 4 picks, and NE forced in into the 2nd longest time without a completion in SB history
quote:
Wilson is not worth elite QB money
We shall see, but I anticipate that he will get elite money.
1
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:15 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
We shall see, but I anticipate that he will get elite money.
I'm (almost) confident enough to bet money that he'll bag more than 100 million in his next contract but I'm not positive he'll average 20 million plus per year.
He's young enough that I can see the Seahawks offering him a 7 year contract at something a little more "reasonable" like 16 or 17 million per year and that can void after 5 years or something like that.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:17 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Andy Dalton got 6 years- $115 Million from Cincinnati.
Just let that sink in.
Your point? Who exactly is gonna give Russell Wilson $100 million on the open market?
quote:
Russell Wilson Comp % in first three seasons in the league
2012 - 64.1
2013 - 63.1
2014 - 63.1
Alex Smith Comp % in first three seasons in the league
48.7%
50.9%
58.1%
Why are you bringing up Alex Smith's first three years when I am talking about 2015, not 2005. Smith also was drafted into a drastically different situation then than what Russell Wilson was drafted into. Plus, passing rules are friendly now compared to when Smith came into the league. Smith also had two deal with a host of injuries his first 3 years and only started 30 games his first three seasons (each under a different OC).
Here are their QB ratings the last 3 seasons with no name attached and you point out the huge difference in the quality of player:
100, 101, 95.
104, 89, 93.4.
Like I said, Wilson is a younger more mobile Alex Smith. Don't let a team's success sway your opinion of an individual player's talents.
Smith will be averaging 13 million over the next 4 years. Do you really believe that Seattle is going to pay Russell Wilson 50% more than that annually? Do you really believe if he went out on the market that any team would do so? These teams aren't idiots. Contrary to what ESPN tells you, these coaches know who Seattle's bellcows are and there are at least 6 players more important to Seattle's success over Wilson.
quote:
Maybe not. He is gonna get paid though. He's gonna be getting in the ballpark of $17-$18 Million though. And he will get long term so it will be over $100 Million and probably backloaded.
He's already 26 so if they go more than 5 years, they are going to look like fools. But hey if they want to pay him enough money to take them out of the Super Bowl race each year, power to them.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:29 pm to Groot
quote:
Your point? Who exactly is gonna give Russell Wilson $100 million on the open market?
Obviously to give proof that average to better than average QBs get $100 Million contracts. Do you think Wilson is better than Dalton? I can guarantee most would say that.
quote:
Why are you bringing up Alex Smith's first three years when I am talking about 2015, not 2005.
It's their first three years in the league, a bit better comparison than comparing a veteran to a rookie.
quote:
Like I said, Wilson is a younger more mobile Alex Smith.
More mobile and more accurate. He also has a much stronger arm. So they aren't really comparable at all. His stats are obscenely better in his first years as a starter and overall has better stats than ANY YEAR that Smith has been in the league.
Couple that with the fact that Smith is already getting 14 mil/year and you're basically proving my point. Not sure what you're arguing.
Wilson will get 100+ million in free agency.
quote:
Do you really believe that Seattle is going to pay Russell Wilson 50% more than that annually?
Like I said, he will get about 18 million annually. Quite possibly 20.
A better comparison would be a guy like Colin Kaepernick. Kaepernick signed a 6 year / $114,000,000 deal recently (19,000,000 Annually).
Wilson is gonna at least get that.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:33 pm to KosmoCramer
The market value may be there but they need to look at what happened when non elite guys got huge contracts. Kap. Flacco. Daulton. Sooner or later they have to lower that first contract extension.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:36 pm to KosmoCramer
Yeah, I don't understand how, barring some huge dropoff next year, Wilson doesn't get a 100 million dollar contract.
1) It's the going rate for starting QBs these days.
2) The salary cap is going to be increasing at a steady clip so it's not a cap buster.
3) Teams are pretty good at structuring these things so that, if Wilson suddenly becomes a disaster, they can get out of it in 3 or 4 years.
4) Seattle has a lot of (relatively) low paid players that are going to get paid, either in Seattle or elsewhere, so blaming Wilson's future contract for "breaking up the band" is intellectually dishonest because that's happening regardless of whether a meteor lands on his head tomorrow and takes him out of the equation.
1) It's the going rate for starting QBs these days.
2) The salary cap is going to be increasing at a steady clip so it's not a cap buster.
3) Teams are pretty good at structuring these things so that, if Wilson suddenly becomes a disaster, they can get out of it in 3 or 4 years.
4) Seattle has a lot of (relatively) low paid players that are going to get paid, either in Seattle or elsewhere, so blaming Wilson's future contract for "breaking up the band" is intellectually dishonest because that's happening regardless of whether a meteor lands on his head tomorrow and takes him out of the equation.
This post was edited on 2/3/15 at 11:37 pm
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:37 pm to ZeeDustin
Flacco almost made it to the AFC Championship game and lost to the Super Bowl winner 
And Kaep and Dalton are obviously not as good as Wilson.
I never said he was worth 20 Million (I'd be very hard pressed to offer that as a GM) but it's there and he'll get that if not just a little less. That's just the nature of the NFL.
And Kaep and Dalton are obviously not as good as Wilson.
I never said he was worth 20 Million (I'd be very hard pressed to offer that as a GM) but it's there and he'll get that if not just a little less. That's just the nature of the NFL.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:39 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
2003 Tampa Bay says hi.
You mean the Bucs team that gave up the fewest ppg (12.125) by almost a 3 ppg margin? Tell them I said hello.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:40 pm to Jcorye1
There was a quadruple post saying he would get 100 million.. It has since been fixed.
Been seeing more than usual triple + post tonight.. must be an issue earlier.
Been seeing more than usual triple + post tonight.. must be an issue earlier.
This post was edited on 2/3/15 at 11:41 pm
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:43 pm to Groot
quote:
You mean the Bucs team that gave up the fewest ppg (12.125) by almost a 3 ppg margin? Tell them I said hello.
quote:
Every Super Bowl winner since the new millenium has either had a stud defense with a stud running game or they've had an elite quarterback.
Michael Pittman
At least Alstott was there but he was just a bruiser, not a stud.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:47 pm to dj30
A couple of things here...
First off, the whole Flacco contract was perfect timing. The Ravens literally squeaked into the playoffs, and Flacco goes on an incredible run where he throws for 1140 yards, 11 TDs and 0 INTs over that 4 game run. And he playes Andrew Luck (rookie year so no big deal), but then went agaisnt Peyton Manning and Denver and then Brady and the Pats. All on the road. And then he carves up the San Fran D when they were an elite defense in the NFL. All in a contract year. The Ravens really didn't have a choice but to pay him.
And you speak of the weapons that Eli had... In 2007 he had Brandon Jacobs, a 30year old Plaxico, a 33year old Amani Toomer, and Shockey. Wouldn't say he had better weapons than Wilson, with Marshawn Lynch being the best out of all of them. The 2011 title run he had some better weapons, Cruz and Nicks. But, I would rather have Lynch and that Seattle D than the guys Eli had and their D, and their D was awesome. But Seattles is better.
And it's hard to say if he's better than Romo or Eli... If you put Wilsom on their team and not change the system or anything, are they really better? I don't think so. Seattles offense is so unique. It's like the modern version of the veer offense. Great rushing attack and they lull you to sleep with it, but it's still awesome, and then all of a sudden the QB keeps it and runs for 30 or he fakes it and tgrows over the top for a big gain. It's a power running game that relies on big plays in the passing game. Its very unique and Wilson is a very unique QB and its a great fit and he's great at it. But he's never shown that he can sit back in the pocket and throw 35+ times week in and week out and be successfult at it. And that's what the guys making $100m contracts do. They are asked to do more than Wilson IMO and their teams success is predicated by their play(go look at pass attempts and yards for this).If those guys play bad, they lose. Wilson can struggle and the Seahawks can still win.
Do I think Wilson deserves a $100m contract? No. Ask yourself this... What makes Seattle great and why they won he super bowl last year and got back to it this year? That D and Marshawn Lynch. Wilson is a big part of that team, not saying he's not, but the reason why they have been great is because of Lynch and that D.
And when it comes to contracts it's all about "what have you done for me lately?"... Wilson just went 56.9% for 724 yards with 6 TDs and 5 INTs in the playoffs and made a huge mistake that cost them the Super Bowl. Say what you want about the play call and stuff... Wilson still threw that ball. That's on him.
So I don't think he deserves a $100m contract... But it wouldn't surprise me if he gets it. IMO, he should get an $80m contract. I think that's fair. But he probably will get something close to $100m.
First off, the whole Flacco contract was perfect timing. The Ravens literally squeaked into the playoffs, and Flacco goes on an incredible run where he throws for 1140 yards, 11 TDs and 0 INTs over that 4 game run. And he playes Andrew Luck (rookie year so no big deal), but then went agaisnt Peyton Manning and Denver and then Brady and the Pats. All on the road. And then he carves up the San Fran D when they were an elite defense in the NFL. All in a contract year. The Ravens really didn't have a choice but to pay him.
And you speak of the weapons that Eli had... In 2007 he had Brandon Jacobs, a 30year old Plaxico, a 33year old Amani Toomer, and Shockey. Wouldn't say he had better weapons than Wilson, with Marshawn Lynch being the best out of all of them. The 2011 title run he had some better weapons, Cruz and Nicks. But, I would rather have Lynch and that Seattle D than the guys Eli had and their D, and their D was awesome. But Seattles is better.
And it's hard to say if he's better than Romo or Eli... If you put Wilsom on their team and not change the system or anything, are they really better? I don't think so. Seattles offense is so unique. It's like the modern version of the veer offense. Great rushing attack and they lull you to sleep with it, but it's still awesome, and then all of a sudden the QB keeps it and runs for 30 or he fakes it and tgrows over the top for a big gain. It's a power running game that relies on big plays in the passing game. Its very unique and Wilson is a very unique QB and its a great fit and he's great at it. But he's never shown that he can sit back in the pocket and throw 35+ times week in and week out and be successfult at it. And that's what the guys making $100m contracts do. They are asked to do more than Wilson IMO and their teams success is predicated by their play(go look at pass attempts and yards for this).If those guys play bad, they lose. Wilson can struggle and the Seahawks can still win.
Do I think Wilson deserves a $100m contract? No. Ask yourself this... What makes Seattle great and why they won he super bowl last year and got back to it this year? That D and Marshawn Lynch. Wilson is a big part of that team, not saying he's not, but the reason why they have been great is because of Lynch and that D.
And when it comes to contracts it's all about "what have you done for me lately?"... Wilson just went 56.9% for 724 yards with 6 TDs and 5 INTs in the playoffs and made a huge mistake that cost them the Super Bowl. Say what you want about the play call and stuff... Wilson still threw that ball. That's on him.
So I don't think he deserves a $100m contract... But it wouldn't surprise me if he gets it. IMO, he should get an $80m contract. I think that's fair. But he probably will get something close to $100m.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:47 pm to dj30
quote:
Can I see your list of qbs better than him?
The list is long, because I factor in that Wilson is:
20th in comp %
20th in completions
19th in attempts
33rd in att/ game
Those rankings are low because he prefers to run when his WRs have small windows, and also could be lower due to not including qbs that were hurt for multiple games
Plus he is 6th in the league for sacks with 42, despite his strength of 'mobility'
Hes also 15th in total yards
And 26th in ypg
You give Brees, Big Ben, Luck, Manning, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan, Stafford, Flacco, Romo, even perhaps Eli, Dalton, and Rivers the Seattle D and Marshawn, and I suspect they all produce more trophies than Wilson. Thats 13 QBs, and it doesnt include Palmer, Foles who got hurt when playing well
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:48 pm to KosmoCramer
Flacco was bad example. They structured him to hurt the cap in 2016.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:49 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
Obviously to give proof that average to better than average QBs get $100 Million contracts. Do you think Wilson is better than Dalton? I can guarantee most would say that.
And I think that Seattle will be smart enough to learn from the mistakes that the Bengals, Chiefs, and Niners made.
quote:
It's their first three years in the league, a bit better comparison than comparing a veteran to a rookie.
No it's not. You didn't like that my argument was right so you tried to change it to one that fit your liking. Right now, Wilson is essentially a younger more mobile Alex Smith. He's not elite, nor should he be paid as such. And FTR, I believe Smith is overpaid as well.
quote:
and more accurate.
Smith's completion percentages the last 3 years are higher than Wilson's.
quote:
He also has a much stronger arm
Cool. Kaepernick is bigger, stronger, and faster than Wilson. Is Kaepernick the better quarterback? Wilson is more mobile and has a stronger arm than Tom Brady. We all saw how much that helped him in the Super Bowl on a one yard pass.
quote:
overall has better stats than ANY YEAR that Smith has been in the league.
Not true. Smith has the highest QB rating for an individual season between the two. But you still aren't getting what my argument was and are trying to change it to something I wasn't saying. I'm not saying that Wilson isn't better than Smith - I've clearly stated multiple times that Wilson is better - and I never even mentioned Smith's numbers from 10 years ago like they have any meaning today(?!?). I'm stating that Wilson is marginally better than Smith and doesn't warrant being paid 50% more than a guy than a guy he has not demonstrated to be vastly superior to.
quote:
Wilson will get 100+ million in free agency.
No he won't because Seattle won't let him hit free agency. Even if by some miracle he does become a free agent next offseason, he won't get $20 mil a year.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:51 pm to Groot
quote:
No he won't because Seattle won't let him hit free agency
Are they gonna chain him up to the stadium?
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:56 pm to KosmoCramer
Oh you're an idiot. Sorry, should have realized that earlier.
Posted on 2/3/15 at 11:58 pm to Groot
You think his agent is gonna let him take less than market value?
You're the fricking idiot, dumbass tree bitch.
You're the fricking idiot, dumbass tree bitch.
Posted on 2/4/15 at 12:15 am to Street Hawk
100 million isn't what it used to be
ten years ago 13 Million was a crazy high salary for a QB, now it owl be the 15th highest paid QB. And this is taking into account that Tom Brady can take way less money that he deserves because his wife makes like 50 mill a year, and Andrew Luck is about to jump way above the 13 mill mark.
ten years ago 13 Million was a crazy high salary for a QB, now it owl be the 15th highest paid QB. And this is taking into account that Tom Brady can take way less money that he deserves because his wife makes like 50 mill a year, and Andrew Luck is about to jump way above the 13 mill mark.
Posted on 2/4/15 at 12:19 am to ZeeDustin
quote:
The market value may be there but they need to look at what happened when non elite guys got huge contracts. Kap. Flacco. Daulton.
2 of the 3 made the playoffs you idiot. The other was on a team who was injury riddled.
Posted on 2/4/15 at 12:30 am to KG5989
quote:
And you speak of the weapons that Eli had... In 2007
What does 2007 have to do with today? The point of my statement was that Eli has looked absolutely terrible the last couple of years. Odell comes along and he actually looks like a good qb again. Players like Romo and Stafford just throw the ball up for grabs to Megatron and Bryant and they come down with the ball. Having weapons like that on the outside makes life much easier for a qb. For some reason, the people on this board fail to realize that. Wilson is throwing to a bunch of undrafted free agents. With his accuracy/ mobility and arm strength, I belive his passing numbers would increase substantially if he had an elite wr on the outside.
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