re: Playoff scenarios

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Texas mercy kneed at the Bama 30 to end the game.

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Teams kneel to end the game up 1. Not sure what that has to do with anything.

Regardless, I actually agree that Texas deserves it. But I'm just telling you it wasn't a blowout.

Would it be a blowout if Bama lost by 17 at home? Because Texas was hitting mid to deep passes all night, at will

Would it be a blowout if Texas fumbled the kneel down and Alabama ran it back for a touchdown and lost by 3? You're just making up hypotheticals. I already conceded that head-to-head matters. Texas took a knee not out of mercy, but for strategic purposes. You do realize that, I'd hope.

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Because in the only scenario where Oregon's resume matters, they have avenged their only loss on the season.

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That's dumb as hell. It's a data point, just like every other game. Stack there wins at that point versus what Alabama and Texas would have and show me how they deserve to be in.

Some shite I slapped together on my lunch break at work. Not that anyone cares but I like committing these thoughts to writing since it's really interesting how this year is shaking out.

Teams with >0% chance:

Georgia
Michigan
Washington
Florida State
Oregon
Texas
Alabama
Ohio State

Rough pecking order based on possible outcomes:

13-0 Georgia
Controls destiny, likely #1 with a win

13-0 Michigan
Controls destiny, #1 in play depending on other outcomes

13-0 Washington
Controls destiny, #1 in play depending on other outcomes

13-0 Florida State
Controls destiny, #1 in play depending on other outcomes

12-1 Oregon
probably controls destiny, #1 in play depending on other outcomes

12-1 Texas
probably doesn't leapfrog the P12C. One loss among UM or FSU would almost certainly get UT to #4. A UGA loss probably gets UT to #4, but 12-1 Bama would be really close. UT could get as high as #2 if everything breaks their way.

12-1 Alabama
probably doesn't leapfrog the P12C or 12-1 UT, but would only need one loss among UM, FSU, and UT to lock up #4. #2 seems like the ceiling.

12-1 Georgia
stuck behind P12C, 12-1 Bama, and probably 12-1 UT by extension. Two losses among UM, FSU, and UT would get them to #4 or #5 depending on if UW loses; at that point the committee is ranking between 12-1 UGA and 12-1 UW and I think UGA would have the edge (but who knows). Three losses among UM, FSU, and UT locks UGA in at no worse than #4.

12-1 Washington
stuck behind 12-1 UO. Could very possibly be stuck behind both a 12-1 Bama and a 12-1 UGA too. Two losses among UM, FSU, UT, and Bama gets UW to #4. If UM, FSU, and UT all lose, then UW probably locks up #3 if UGA wins or #4 if Bama wins.

12-1 Michigan
three losses from FSU, UO, UT, or Bama gets them to #4. All four losing gets UM to #3.

12-1 Florida State
could sneak in at #4 if UO, UT, and Bama all lose. The committee would be choosing between 12-1 FSU and 11-1 OSU, and FSU probably gets the nod. I'm guessing they're stuck behind UM no matter what UM does.

11-1 Ohio State
the only chance of OSU getting in is if UO, UT, Bama, and FSU all lose. The committee would then have to rank OSU at #4 over 12-1 FSU, which seems very unlikely. However, UM going 13-0 would probably give some merit to the argument.

11-2 Oregon, 11-2 Texas, and 11-2 Alabama are all eliminated from consideration.

It's possible I overlooked something but yeah, this seems more or less like each team's probable path to the playoff based on outcomes.

I'm only including OSU because I did see a scenario in which they can possibly sneak in at #4 but it's so stupidly remote that I think OSU's done.

Oregon (probably) controls their destiny AND is almost certainly eliminated with a loss. They're the only team for whom both statements are (probably) true, which should bring a measure of comfort to them considering the P12CG is on Friday and they would otherwise be waiting longer than anyone else to learn their (probable) fate.

I don't believe any team has locked up a spot yet (compared to, say, TCU last year). Every team has a way to blow it.

I also don't believe any CONFERENCE has locked up a spot yet. The P12 is the closest, but the committee could pull some 11th hour frickery and screw a 12-1 UO if they really wanted to. I can't rule out that possibility if 12-1 UT and 12-1 Bama are sitting there. There exists at least one scenario for every P5 conference in which they send no teams to the playoff.

There's a scenario in which THREE P5 conferences miss the playoff. UO/Bama wins + UM/UT/FSU losses very likely gets us an all-SEC/P12 playoff. This seems like the most chaotic outcome so if you like chaos root for this.

My prediction:
#1 13-0 UGA
#2 13-0 UM
#3 12-1 UO
#4 12-1 UT

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Early morning brain fart. Who the frick are you referring to here?

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It’s not your fault, he’s autistic can can’t type the word Michigan without sperging out.

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Bama: 3 top 15 wins, 1 loss to a one-loss team

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1 loss to a one-loss team

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Is it the close wins vs south Florida, arky, auburn and A&M that show that or the 10 point loss to Texas that makes it clear?

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Don’t forget tearing through LSUs defense. Only 9 of the 10 other P5 teams that played LSU could do that

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So, the MGoBlog guy was saying he thinks Michigan is a lock for the Rose because either UGA will pick the Sugar if they are #1 or Michigan would pick the Rose if they are. I am thinking, not so fast. If Michigan drew Washington or Oregon, wouldn't it make more sense to face them away from the west coast if they got to pick? Would they have the guts to deny everyone the classic Rose Bowl matchup? Also, if UGA plays FSU, wouldn't they maybe not want to fight FSU for tickets in NOLA and play it elsewhere?

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I don't think either UGA or Michigan is as soft as you are making them out to be. I think Michigan plays in the rose bowl and UGA plays in the sugar given the opportunity.