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re: Official Week 9 College Football Bet Thread

Posted on 10/28/15 at 3:41 am to
Posted by smash williams
San Diego
Member since Apr 2009
20975 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 3:41 am to
quote:

Early leans... Georgia, Vandy and Cal. Let's watch and wait!
These are the ones I'm watching too.

Any Auburn fans have an update on Lawson?
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:09 am to
quote:

ou wasted a $1


Maybe
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:09 am to
quote:

Wasted a lot of time lol


Twas not wasted.
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:10 am to
quote:

Too many favorites, IMHO


I'm the sharpest square on here.
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:17 am to
quote:

I can't even hit a 4 point 13 team teaser, how the hell do you expect to even hit 55% of these legs


I don't expect to hit it, or even to come close to hitting it. I also don't expect to win powerball, and I'll still from time to time exchange a dollar for a ticket.
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:23 am to
quote:

there are no gifts in vegas


From time to time they do.

Don't think of it as a gift from Vegas, but as a token of appreciation from less informed bettors. The sportsbook's just a rake.
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:50 am to
quote:

someone wanna explain how ND isnt the lock of the week vs Temple?


I like it as well, and situations of this kind as a general matter.

For example, when Northwestern played Michigan earlier in the year, NW appeared to be okay at the game of football. Many pundits who draw paychecks to discuss cfb made such claims. I'm sure some on this board listened to said pundits and didn't think them unreasonable.

But in fact Northwestern was simply awaiting an appropriate opportunity to get badly exposed. One might even say last week's Utah game fell into this general category (but to a less exaggerated extent).

So, yeah, ND looks fairly tasty, and is a prime candidate for a backup play on the moneyline as well.
This post was edited on 10/28/15 at 4:51 am
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 4:57 am to
quote:

49% on ASU according to Sportsbook Spy


Interesting site. They make this claim:
quote:


But now, with Sportsbook Spy, you are able to follow raw bet data straight from multiple sportsbooks showing exactly who is betting what!


From where would they be able to get meaningfully accurate data with respect to the "who". Perhaps the better question is: how are they categorizing the "who"s". Are they paying some ticket jockey behind the counter a couple hundred bucks to shoot them a text when bets are place by individuals who don't appear outwardly retarded? They got tabs on who Billy Walter's runners are?
This post was edited on 10/28/15 at 4:59 am
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12073 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 5:44 am to
It's done by Scott Spreitzer and his team who has all the sportsbook directors on his radio show every week so I'd imagine he gets the info or at least the ok from them.
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 6:07 am to
quote:

It's done by Scott Spreitzer and his team who has all the sportsbook directors on his radio show every week so I'd imagine he gets the info or at least the ok from them


I read the ESPN chalk articles where they have the sportsbook directors comment on where the sharp money has gone and who the public is on, etc.. And I can certainly trust the data when stated as a general matter like so. I guess it just seems like the claim from sportsbook spy kind of sounds like they are claiming the ability to quantify those general comments, which is kind of silly when you think about it. It's one thing to say that the sharp money is on San Jose State. It's quite another to try to meaningfully categorize those distinctions and assign them an associated percentage or bet total.
This post was edited on 10/28/15 at 6:08 am
Posted by jac1280
Member since Dec 2007
5380 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 6:58 am to
Just for the hell of it, did this teaser (+265):

Navy +3
Clemson -0.5
Notre Dame Pk
Patriots Pk

and 2 open spots and I am getting +9.5 for NFL games and +10 points in NCAAF.

Thoughts on the initial 4 games I picked? TIA


Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:02 am to
I may put a small play on Georgia Southern -21 just so that I can regret not putting in a much larger play after they win 45-14.

Western Michigan is tempting as well. Eastern Michigan is a nigerian yardsale (on their best day). They aren't the worst team in the FBS, but they're probably in the bottom five.
This post was edited on 10/28/15 at 7:10 am
Posted by HailToTheChiz
Back in Auburn
Member since Aug 2010
53795 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:09 am to
quote:

Any Auburn fans have an update on Lawson?


Supposedly practiced yesterday. Rumored to play Saturday.

Still made of glass. I would take ole miss if you play that game
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:17 am to
Still looking like UVA and Cal will be this week's plays... Hopefully they both get pushed to a full 7 but would play at 6/6.5.
Posted by 4LSU2
Member since Dec 2009
37949 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:24 am to
Western Kentucky, App State, and Marshall jump out at me this week. I've ridden App State for five weeks now. No reason to jump off the train.
Posted by Louie T
Member since Dec 2006
36601 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:43 am to
ND is going to massacre them at the LOS.
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:50 am to
quote:

Still looking like UVA


You feel like you have a pretty good read on the rambling wreck this season?
Posted by SystemsGo
Member since Oct 2014
2774 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 7:56 am to
quote:

Western Kentucky, App State, and Marshall jump out at me this week. I've ridden App State for five weeks now. No reason to jump off the train.


App State made me some easy and stress free coin last Saturday. They are in my good graces.

I'm leaning on all of the above as well. I've got a lot of big favs on my consideration list, which isn't the norm for me, but whatever.
Posted by ChemE in the OP
The Flats
Member since Apr 2011
6382 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 8:14 am to
quote:

You feel like you have a pretty good read on the rambling wreck this season?


I'm 2-1 when betting for or against Ga Tech this year. Both my picks are interesting this week as I hit USC and Ga Tech last week but expect them to both struggle with tough spots on the road this week.
Posted by Nate Bracey
Member since Feb 2014
50 posts
Posted on 10/28/15 at 11:40 am to
What site are y'all using? Bovada?
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