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Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 8 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:27 pm to kidbourbon
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:27 pm to kidbourbon
Let's use Seahawks at Rams this weekend as an example... SEA is getting 94% of the bets but the line is holding steady at 7.
What are the reasons that line would hold? Huge wagers on the smaller percent? The sportsbook comfortable with the number and taking a stand? Would you prefer to be on the same side as the large wagers and sportsbooks or the average bettor? What about when the line moves against the larger percentage, what does this tell us? General public likes FAVs and overs as well... How much value is derived by taking dogs and unders alone?
Questions worth pondering...
What are the reasons that line would hold? Huge wagers on the smaller percent? The sportsbook comfortable with the number and taking a stand? Would you prefer to be on the same side as the large wagers and sportsbooks or the average bettor? What about when the line moves against the larger percentage, what does this tell us? General public likes FAVs and overs as well... How much value is derived by taking dogs and unders alone?
Questions worth pondering...
5
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:27 pm to Broken Ear Glen
quote:
The only way to bet is to make a line,
Question. When you make a line, is your line an attempt at what the vegas line will be, or what the MOV of the game will be?
And do you ever find that these objectives unintentionally conflate?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:29 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
How much value is derived by taking dogs and unders alone?
I don't know about unders, but there's virtually no value derived by taking dogs as opposed to favs. There are peer-reviewed articles on this.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:32 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
What are the reasons that line would hold? Huge wagers on the smaller percent? The sportsbook comfortable with the number and taking a stand? Would you prefer to be on the same side as the large wagers and sportsbooks or the average bettor? What about when the line moves against the larger percentage, what does this tell us?
And to all this I would ask: are there actual answers to these questions, or are you always going to be speculating based on wildly incomplete information?
And if the latter, and I'm fairly certain it's the latter, then is it really a useful data point or a needless distraction from more probative questions.....like who's gonna win the game.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:38 pm to kidbourbon
quote:
I don't know about unders, but there's virtually no value derived by taking dogs as opposed to favs. There are peer-reviewed articles on this.
This is true. The splits are essentially identical.
People have the obsession over home underdogs as well. Stats show that it's still essentially a coin flip if you blindly bet home dogs (I saw the stats recently from 2000 onward in the NFL that showcased this). I think the record was like 180-176. Factoring in juice you'd still be losing money.
A lot of pro gamblers used to only play dogs in general. I would venture to say hardly any stick to that strategy now.
Adapt or die.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:42 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Let's use Seahawks at Rams this weekend as an example... SEA is getting 94% of the bets but the line is holding steady at 7.
What are the reasons that line would hold? Huge wagers on the smaller percent? The sportsbook comfortable with the number and taking a stand? Would you prefer to be on the same side as the large wagers and sportsbooks or the average bettor? What about when the line moves against the larger percentage, what does this tell us? General public likes FAVs and overs as well... How much value is derived by taking dogs and unders alone?
Questions worth pondering...
Same thing happened against San Francisco. Sharps gonna ride the Rams until it finally pays off I guess.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:43 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
A lot of pro gamblers used to only play dogs in general. I would venture to say hardly any stick to that strategy now.
Message board "sharps" surely do.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:50 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Let's use Seahawks at Rams this weekend as an example... SEA is getting 94% of the bets but the line is holding steady at 7. What are the reasons that line would hold? Huge wagers on the smaller percent? The sportsbook comfortable with the number and taking a stand? Would you prefer to be on the same side as the large wagers and sportsbooks or the average bettor? What about when the line moves against the larger percentage, what does this tell us? General public likes FAVs and overs as well... How much value is derived by taking dogs and unders alone? Questions worth pondering...
Dead on. Only 3 reasons the books wont move this line up. 7% of the wagers on the Rams are for very LARGE money or the bookmakers truly believe Rams will keep it under 7. As well as knowing if they move it to 7.5 they will get large money if it isnt already on them. Theres no other explanation to say why this line didnt move.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:58 pm to blades8088
quote:
Dead on. Only 3 reasons the books wont move this line up. 7% of the wagers on the Rams are for very LARGE money or the bookmakers truly believe Rams will keep it under 7. As well as knowing if they move it to 7.5 they will get large money if it isnt already on them. Theres no other explanation to say why this line didnt move.
Glad we all now agree that these "meta" questions are unanswerable based on available data, and thus of no use. Good talk.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:58 pm to kidbourbon
Your an idiot
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:58 pm to kidbourbon
quote:
Message board "sharps" surely do.
Some more than others. It all comes down to personal preference.
If you've achieved moderate success taking points, then they will continue to do so, whether or not there are any over-arcing metrics to support doing so.
There's no shame in laying points. If you think playing chalk favorites or laying double-digits hurts your "e-cred", I feel sorry for you
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 2:00 pm
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:59 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Let's use Seahawks at Rams this weekend as an example... SEA is getting 94% of the bets but the line is holding steady at 7.
What are the reasons that line would hold? Huge wagers on the smaller percent? The sportsbook comfortable with the number and taking a stand? Would you prefer to be on the same side as the large wagers and sportsbooks or the average bettor? What about when the line moves against the larger percentage, what does this tell us? General public likes FAVs and overs as well... How much value is derived by taking dogs and unders alone?
Questions worth pondering...
You always blow my mind in these betting threads and I thank you for that.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:03 pm to Sader1990
ANYWAY Week 8 NCAAF Card Update:
UL Lafayette +120 200/240 WIN
LSU -9.5 220/200
Georgia -3.5 230/200
Preseason I had LSU -17.5 and UGA -14 on those two lines... Over correction on both accounts.
UL Lafayette +120 200/240 WIN
LSU -9.5 220/200
Georgia -3.5 230/200
Preseason I had LSU -17.5 and UGA -14 on those two lines... Over correction on both accounts.
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:07 pm to kidbourbon
Post your card before kickoff. Lets see how you really do
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 2:08 pm
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:18 pm to blades8088
quote:
Your an idiot
Your
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:19 pm to Billy Mays
quote:
If you think playing chalk favorites or laying double-digits hurts your "e-cred", I feel sorry for you
I agree.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:20 pm to kidbourbon
Thanks mom! You still suck, as I never see you post plays
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:21 pm to blades8088
quote:
Post your card before kickoff. Lets see how you really do
You pissed off? Ya sound pissed.
I mean, it's cool if you'd rather take pains to analyze what other people think about the game rather than just thinking about the game yourself. To each their own.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:25 pm to kidbourbon
I sound mad? Im glad you can hear the tone as I am typing letters on my Iphone.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 2:26 pm to blades8088
quote:
You still suck, as I never see you post plays
Wow.
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