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re: OFFICIAL Week 8 CFB bet thread™
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:41 am to Broken Ear Glen
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:41 am to Broken Ear Glen
quote:
The only way to bet is to make a line, assess it vs the Vegas line, calculate how much value you're getting on the line and bet accordingly.
Agree to disagree. I highly doubt you are accurately assessing the amount of "advantage" you have on a play by play basis.
2
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:45 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
I highly doubt you are accurately assessing the amount of "advantage" you have on a play by play basis.
Well yeah I'm speaking in perfect world terms. If you were able to derive a system that shot out a line according to how you value variables in a football game (anything, you name it) and then weigh that line vs the Vegas, that would be the smartest way to bet for a particular individual.
This post was edited on 10/16/14 at 10:45 am
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:48 am to Broken Ear Glen
Alabama is getting hit hard.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 10:57 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Agree to disagree. I highly doubt you are accurately assessing the amount of "advantage" you have on a play by play basis.
I still think there is truth to the statement. The proper approach isn't to pick winners, but to find the bad lines.
My first year betting college football I just tried to pick winners. "Oh that team can easily win by 21.5 points" or "No way that team loses by 14 points" I would think. Other square thinking like that and I had a negative year.
This year I am 30-20-1 (59%) on the season and up +8.0 units overall. Instead of trying to pick winners I try to find the lines I think are off. I also try to find lines that are meant to attract square action and hit the other side. Last week those lines were West Virginia -6 and Oklahoma State -19.5. Squares were all over WVU and OKST and I pounded Texas Tech and Kansas and hit both bets.
Problem with every sport is that as the season goes on its harder and harder to find bad lines because the oddsmakers have more data to go off of.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:07 am to goldennugget
quote:
I also try to find lines that are meant to attract square action and hit the other side.
Don't we all?
I still would argue it's hard to quantify perceived "advantage" and scale bets accordingly.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:32 am to ChemE in the OP
Added A&M +14.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 11:53 am to DallasTiger45
quote:
Added A&M +14.
I like that
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:37 pm to Broken Ear Glen
quote:
The only way to bet is to make a line, assess it vs the Vegas line, calculate how much value you're getting on the line and bet accordingly.
This is my protocol as well.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:37 pm to kidbourbon
Obvious winner:
$1.00 $288,619.84 Pending 21 Team Parlay
Pending 10/16/14 7:30pm College Football 305 Virginia Tech -117* vs Pittsburgh U
Pending 10/17/14 8:00pm College Football 310 Boise State -850* vs Fresno State
Pending 10/18/14 6:00pm College Football 314 Florida International +22 -110* vs Marshall
Pending 10/18/14 5:00pm College Football 317 Miami Ohio +13½ -110* vs Northern Illinois
Pending 10/18/14 2:00pm College Football 319 Akron -2½ -110* vs Ohio
Pending 10/18/14 12:00pm College Football 325 Baylor -7½ -110* vs West Virginia
Pending 10/18/14 12:30pm College Football 328 Duke -2 -110* vs Virginia
Pending 10/18/14 7:00pm College Football 329 Georgia Tech -2 -110* vs North Carolina
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 331 NC State +17½ -110* vs Louisville
Pending 10/18/14 2:00pm College Football 336 Bowling Green -2½ -120* vs Western Michigan
Pending 10/18/14 7:00pm College Football 350 North Texas -9 -110* vs Southern Mississippi
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 351 Cincinnati U -13 -110* vs SMU
Pending 10/18/14 10:15pm College Football 355 Nevada +12 -110* vs BYU
Pending 10/18/14 8:00pm College Football 361 Washington U +20½ -110* vs Oregon
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 363 UCLA -6½ -110* vs California
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 365 UAB -1 -110* vs Middle Tennessee State
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 369 Texas A&M +13½ -110* vs Alabama
Pending 10/18/14 12:00pm College Football 383 Western Kentucky -4½ -110* vs Florida Atlantic
Pending 10/18/14 7:00pm College Football 391 Missouri +5½ -110* vs Florida
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 394 Texas Tech -13 -110* vs Kansas
Pending 10/18/14 7:30pm College Football 402 LSU -360* vs Kentucky
$1.00 $288,619.84 Pending 21 Team Parlay
Pending 10/16/14 7:30pm College Football 305 Virginia Tech -117* vs Pittsburgh U
Pending 10/17/14 8:00pm College Football 310 Boise State -850* vs Fresno State
Pending 10/18/14 6:00pm College Football 314 Florida International +22 -110* vs Marshall
Pending 10/18/14 5:00pm College Football 317 Miami Ohio +13½ -110* vs Northern Illinois
Pending 10/18/14 2:00pm College Football 319 Akron -2½ -110* vs Ohio
Pending 10/18/14 12:00pm College Football 325 Baylor -7½ -110* vs West Virginia
Pending 10/18/14 12:30pm College Football 328 Duke -2 -110* vs Virginia
Pending 10/18/14 7:00pm College Football 329 Georgia Tech -2 -110* vs North Carolina
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 331 NC State +17½ -110* vs Louisville
Pending 10/18/14 2:00pm College Football 336 Bowling Green -2½ -120* vs Western Michigan
Pending 10/18/14 7:00pm College Football 350 North Texas -9 -110* vs Southern Mississippi
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 351 Cincinnati U -13 -110* vs SMU
Pending 10/18/14 10:15pm College Football 355 Nevada +12 -110* vs BYU
Pending 10/18/14 8:00pm College Football 361 Washington U +20½ -110* vs Oregon
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 363 UCLA -6½ -110* vs California
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 365 UAB -1 -110* vs Middle Tennessee State
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 369 Texas A&M +13½ -110* vs Alabama
Pending 10/18/14 12:00pm College Football 383 Western Kentucky -4½ -110* vs Florida Atlantic
Pending 10/18/14 7:00pm College Football 391 Missouri +5½ -110* vs Florida
Pending 10/18/14 3:30pm College Football 394 Texas Tech -13 -110* vs Kansas
Pending 10/18/14 7:30pm College Football 402 LSU -360* vs Kentucky
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:39 pm to kidbourbon
And when it does win, you'll totally get paid on it...
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:44 pm to goldennugget
quote:
also try to find lines that are meant to attract square action and hit the other side. Last week those lines were West Virginia -6 and Oklahoma State -19.5. Squares were all over WVU and OKST and I pounded Texas Tech and Kansas and hit both bets.
Explain the rationale behind that?
We have a sporting event that is going to occur. There will be an outcome to this sporting event. There will be a final score. And so rather than (a) doing your best to try try to gauge what is going to happen between the lines of that sporting event, compare your assessment with the vegas spread, and bet money when you see an advantage, you (b) attempt to assess what the general public is doing to do, and, operating under the assumption that they aren't doing a very good job of gauging what is going to occur on the field of play, you do the opposite of what you "think" the general public is going to do.
And you call yourself a "sharp"? You *actually* think that's a more prudent approach?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:45 pm to JG77056
quote:
And when it does win, you'll totally get paid on it...
Why wouldn't I get paid on it?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:48 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
I still would argue it's hard to quantify perceived "advantage" and scale bets accordingly.
I would argue a meta-analysis of "find out what the public is doing and do the opposite" is an aimless approach and an exercise in futility.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:51 pm to goldennugget
quote:
The proper approach isn't to pick winners, but to find the bad lines.
If you can't pick the winners how in the world would you know what the bad lines were?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 12:56 pm to kidbourbon
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:00 pm to Chadaristic
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:00 pm to Chadaristic
Hahahaha perfect meme usage.
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:01 pm to dgtiger3
Who are you on for the Pitt game?
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:06 pm to kidbourbon
quote:
I would argue a meta-analysis of "find out what the public is doing and do the opposite" is an aimless approach and an exercise in futility.
I would argue if you don't understand how to use this as an effective tool to give you one data point when making bets you are missing out on valuable information. I would also argue that you're arguing this for argument's sake and know full well how useful this information is...
Posted on 10/16/14 at 1:21 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
I would also argue that you're arguing this for argument's sake and know full well how useful this information is...
I honestly don't. Unless we're assuming the game is fixed, then the amount of money that comes in on one side or another will have no affect on the final score.
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