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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 CFB Bet Thread™
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:12 pm to TigerTatorTots
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:12 pm to TigerTatorTots
There are no such things as locks.
I'm always re-evaluating each year, trying to improve the picks. I think this year I've got something which is why I bet every play at $400 per to start.
It's the same picks I posted earlier. The NFL plays will follow; about 6 for W1.
..that 1 week killed me last year. I had way too many picks LY. I don't think I'll have more than 12 CFB plays in any given week.
I'm always re-evaluating each year, trying to improve the picks. I think this year I've got something which is why I bet every play at $400 per to start.
It's the same picks I posted earlier. The NFL plays will follow; about 6 for W1.
..that 1 week killed me last year. I had way too many picks LY. I don't think I'll have more than 12 CFB plays in any given week.
This post was edited on 8/21/12 at 5:21 pm
2
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:21 pm to LSUAlum2001
Do you handicap the games yourself?
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:31 pm to TigerTatorTots
Yeah, but it's a numerical ats method. I care more about a team's consistency beating the ats number over a set time: basically looking for team being undervalued/overvalued ats.
LSU & Alabama were consistently undervalued by Vegas last season whereas CMU was overvalued.
LSU & Alabama were consistently undervalued by Vegas last season whereas CMU was overvalued.
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:47 pm to LSUAlum2001
Understood. Don't be shy in presenting your finding in this thread this year 
Posted on 8/21/12 at 6:37 pm to LSUAlum2001
Little late, but I don't see how wazzou will lose by more than 13 to byu. Also like Penn state -6. If any team will be ready and waiting for week 1 its them.
Posted on 8/21/12 at 8:31 pm to JG77056
no way im touching penn st
Posted on 8/21/12 at 8:45 pm to LSUAlum2001
12 picks per week in just NCAA football? No way you win money.
Just saw your site. Not sure who would pay you for that but to each his own. Locks of the year is just a term to get a 4 or 5 unit play on the books and to promote it. Never seen a 10 unit one before. There are normally about 8-10 big time lines a year. Betting 12 games a week at only 1 and 2 units will lose majority of the years.
Just saw your site. Not sure who would pay you for that but to each his own. Locks of the year is just a term to get a 4 or 5 unit play on the books and to promote it. Never seen a 10 unit one before. There are normally about 8-10 big time lines a year. Betting 12 games a week at only 1 and 2 units will lose majority of the years.
This post was edited on 8/21/12 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 8/21/12 at 9:21 pm to VegasPro
quote:
No way you win money
he doesnt. last year he posted his plays for the first three weeks and went like 25%...he stopped posting after that for the rest of the season
Posted on 8/21/12 at 10:00 pm to rocket31
quote:
he doesnt. last year he posted his plays for the first three weeks and went like 25%...he stopped posting after that for the rest of the season
Ummm..no?
I had one bad week which wiped out the + units up to that point and went up and down the rest.
This post was edited on 8/21/12 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 8/22/12 at 7:12 am to rocket31
I'm going to need you all to pay me $25 per message board post you read. I'll DM you the PayPal account the money can be sent to.
Seriously though, the tout industry is dying off.
Seriously though, the tout industry is dying off.
Posted on 8/22/12 at 7:33 am to LSUAlum2001
About the only capping service that's worth it is RAS and you have to be playing $1k-5k per game to make the NCAAF and NCAAB subscription worth it.
Posted on 8/22/12 at 8:15 am to ChemE in the OP
has anyone seen an o/u line on the ga tech v. va tech game?
Posted on 8/22/12 at 8:41 am to geauxtigs99
48 i believe
Posted on 8/22/12 at 9:30 am to VegasPro
quote:
Betting 12 games a week at only 1 and 2 units will lose majority of the years
..that will be the most plays in a given week. It'll flucuate from 8-12 for the most part. I'm locking in at the same $ for each bet across the board and I'll re-access after week 7.
Most people don't understand what I'm trying to do mathematically, so I've given up trying to explain it.
This post was edited on 8/22/12 at 9:31 am
Posted on 8/22/12 at 9:48 am to ChemE in the OP
quote:
Seriously though, the tout industry is dying off.
Absolutely, I've seen a huge swing the past few years alone..
I see more people I know going to forums/message boards for advice than calling the hotlines for their picks..
I feel kinda old remembering the days when my buddy and I used to call the hotline for tips
Posted on 8/22/12 at 10:03 am to aVatiger
quote:
I see more people I know going to forums/message boards for advice than calling the hotlines for their picks.
..and it's the same results for the most part there as well. You see a guy with good analysis and a pretty good record so you start tailing him. As soon as you do, the guy goes on a massive losing streak.
I get a ton of email from guys touting, and one in particular is a real douche. He runs about 5 sites under different names. He says everything is documented on his sites, but he ONLY documents winning days on his home page:
It'll go like this:
Sun: 4-2
Mon: 3-2
Wed: 2-1
Thur: 3-3
Sat: 4-2
Total: 16-10
The two missing days will be something like 1-5 each so his record is actually 18-20 over that week.
Posted on 8/22/12 at 4:33 pm to LSUAlum2001
Pg 2 bump
Posted on 8/22/12 at 9:08 pm to TigerTatorTots
So whats up fellas? Its getting closer and closer almost here. I know I cant wait. Any further news on the Lacy situation?
Posted on 8/22/12 at 9:35 pm to blades8088
now its starting to sound like hes probably going to miss the Mich game but not the season.
everything i hear is something different so dont really know. still like Bama either way
everything i hear is something different so dont really know. still like Bama either way
Posted on 8/22/12 at 9:45 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
still like Bama either way
SEC gonna SEC
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