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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL Week 1 CFB Bet Thread™
Posted on 8/21/12 at 10:35 am to GhostBuster6
Posted on 8/21/12 at 10:35 am to GhostBuster6
Greetings gentlemen. I wasn't a part of this thread last year, but I hope to be involved, offer some insight, and enjoy some discussion this year since I play a good bit of action on CFB.
Some info on the USCe Vandy from some people over here (I live in Columbia): Lattimore will play. They feel they have a deeper rotation than last three years and after seeing them play (wife's family has season tickets) I believe the depth is there. It's no longer a one man dependancy. Shaw provides an aspect to running as well. WR is the question mark in this game. They don't have a proven threat so Vandy will look to make Shaw beat them throwing.
Defensively, USCe will dominate the LOS. Outside of Clowney, USCe still has playmakers so Vandy will be mismatched on the front 7. Secondary, though, Carolina is frighteningly limited. They are young and injured. Depth an issue. Rodgers will play well if he has time to throw.
Interesting point, Vandy undefeated at home ATS last year. USCe 2-3 ATS last year on the road.
My take, if I can get USCe at -6.5 I will take it. If line stays around -7.5 or -8 I will pass.
Some info on the USCe Vandy from some people over here (I live in Columbia): Lattimore will play. They feel they have a deeper rotation than last three years and after seeing them play (wife's family has season tickets) I believe the depth is there. It's no longer a one man dependancy. Shaw provides an aspect to running as well. WR is the question mark in this game. They don't have a proven threat so Vandy will look to make Shaw beat them throwing.
Defensively, USCe will dominate the LOS. Outside of Clowney, USCe still has playmakers so Vandy will be mismatched on the front 7. Secondary, though, Carolina is frighteningly limited. They are young and injured. Depth an issue. Rodgers will play well if he has time to throw.
Interesting point, Vandy undefeated at home ATS last year. USCe 2-3 ATS last year on the road.
My take, if I can get USCe at -6.5 I will take it. If line stays around -7.5 or -8 I will pass.
2
Posted on 8/21/12 at 11:11 am to TheMightyTerrier
great analysis
Posted on 8/21/12 at 11:14 am to TheMightyTerrier
Good insight man. Glad to have you here hope you have a very prosperous relationship with all us clowns in this thread
Posted on 8/21/12 at 11:29 am to wish i was tebow
Vandy-USC
I view this game as having the most inflated line possible....nobody will ever think much more highly of Vandy in a home opener against a big time team than they do now...+the unknown of Marcus Lattimore and the game being at vandy...so i think the line is maxed out (it couldnt possibly be any lower)...so that makes me think Carolina although i wont be in vegas in time to bet it since its thursday
I view this game as having the most inflated line possible....nobody will ever think much more highly of Vandy in a home opener against a big time team than they do now...+the unknown of Marcus Lattimore and the game being at vandy...so i think the line is maxed out (it couldnt possibly be any lower)...so that makes me think Carolina although i wont be in vegas in time to bet it since its thursday
Posted on 8/21/12 at 12:14 pm to okietiger
quote:
I am not a fan of SoMoneySports Chem. I must have started following him at the wrong time last year.
You must have cause he was over 62% for CFL, NCAAF, and NFL combined last year. All for free.
@phillygodfather's half point parlay tickets on Sunday morning are the shite too. Very informative if used correctly.
Posted on 8/21/12 at 12:28 pm to GhostBuster6
not that this is a huge point but i read that something like the fast 5 of 6 they have played would have gone under 47.
Dont see vandy scoring a ton and USCe will want to run the rock
Dont see vandy scoring a ton and USCe will want to run the rock
Posted on 8/21/12 at 1:49 pm to GatorReb
quote:TD doesn't have a PM feature. Shoot me an e-mail-I'll tell you how to get reduced juice when you sign up and give you my ID
Anyone that uses fivedimes wanna give me a referral? So I can hook you up with at least a little bit.
I guess just pm me
sellinglsuticket@gmail
Posted on 8/21/12 at 2:02 pm to TigerTatorTots
Added a Wong Teaser for shits...and b/c I was something like 8-2 last year with Wong Teasers
1* Syracuse +7.5, Iowa St +7.5
1* Syracuse +7.5, Iowa St +7.5
Posted on 8/21/12 at 2:05 pm to TigerTatorTots
Whats a wong teaser? Ive never heard of this
Posted on 8/21/12 at 2:14 pm to blades8088
quote:
Whats a wong teaser? Ive never heard of this
quote:
The name Wong teaser originates because the concept was popularized in the book Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong. It can alternately be seen by other names including a basic strategy teaser. A Wong teaser is a two-game teaser in which teasing the spread moves it through the two key numbers of three and seven. In other words, it's a teaser involving favorites of between 7.5 and 8.5 or underdogs of between 1.5 and 2.5. If a line is reasonably accurate then you can assume about a 50 percent chance of either team covering. If the odds were -110 then you need to win about 52.4 percent of your bets to break even. To win 52.4 percent of your teasers you need to be able to win the individual games approximately 72.5 percent of the time. Because games end up being decided by three and seven more than 22 percent of the time, teasing through these two numbers increases the chances of covering a spread from about 50 percent to 72 percent or more (It's actually better than that because you are also covering the numbers four, five and six, and games can also finish with those margins as well). Over the long term, then, Wong teasers are one of the few places in betting where there is a positive expectation. In other words, Wong teasers are very good for your bankroll.
Posted on 8/21/12 at 2:45 pm to TigerTatorTots
Someone follow me on twitter: @vegasbusters
Posted on 8/21/12 at 3:05 pm to LSUAlum2001
Follow me on twitter @lsualum2001
Kidding of course
Kidding of course
Posted on 8/21/12 at 3:35 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:Is that really you?
Someone follow me on twitter: @vegasbusters
Posted on 8/21/12 at 4:00 pm to wish i was tebow
Good read- The value on UGA to win the BCSNCG is unreal
LINK
+1600 on 5dimes
+2000 on Oddsmaker (still have $100 on that site so I put $10 to win $200)
LINK
+1600 on 5dimes
+2000 on Oddsmaker (still have $100 on that site so I put $10 to win $200)
Posted on 8/21/12 at 4:50 pm to TigerTatorTots
Yeah. I haven't tweeted anything since last year, though..
Posted on 8/21/12 at 4:55 pm to LSUAlum2001
You sell picks?
Posted on 8/21/12 at 4:57 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
Message Posted by TigerTatorTots You sell picks?
..to those foolish enough to pay for them.
I'm trying to get the VB app off the ground. Free app with lines and scores of CFB, NFL, MLB, CBB, NBA and NHL.
It would eventually have in app purchases of picks but the goal is to finish one thing at a time.
People only want free shite, though. The app will have ads so it could bring in a small amount or revenue. I would usually give out the first 3 weeks free, go 20-9 or so, and receive almost zero interest in anyone paying for the rest of the season.
This post was edited on 8/21/12 at 5:04 pm
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:02 pm to LSUAlum2001
quote:You just lost a notch of respect in my book. I'm not a fan of scammers, especially those touting picks for sale.
..to those foolish enough to pay for them.
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:05 pm to TigerTatorTots
I'm hurt.
I don't scam anyone. Everyone gets the same picks unlike guys who like to distribute a different side to half their subscribers; fooling them into thinking they are great.
I don't scam anyone. Everyone gets the same picks unlike guys who like to distribute a different side to half their subscribers; fooling them into thinking they are great.
Posted on 8/21/12 at 5:09 pm to LSUAlum2001
I just took a look at your site. Its not he typical 'picks for sale' site so I'll cut you some slack. I didn't see any outrageous win % claims or LOCKS OF THE YEAR type verbage. That is what really makes those sites a scam. Yours seems more moral that the rest
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