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Started By
Message
re: OFFICIAL CFB Bet Thread Week 2
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:42 pm to ChemE in the OP
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:42 pm to ChemE in the OP
quote:
They may take our lives but they will never take our freedom!
1
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:45 pm to dcrews
Anyway. while yall bullshittin, ECU doing work
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:47 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
Kentucky -17 vs. Miami OH
This is a game that Kentucky is very likely to cover. Miami-Oh is a horrendous horrendous football team. UK is bad, but there are several shades of bad between UK bad and Miami-Oh bad.
And yet I didn't pull the trigger on it. Something about the name "Kentucky" jsut makes me gun shy, I guess.
But I won't rule out a play closer to time.
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:49 pm to wish i was tebow
quote:
Im with you on that. there is just something about it that isnt sitting right with me
Applebees again for dinner?
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:49 pm to Chef Leppard
didnt get that pick in on time 
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:51 pm to Jwodie
quote:
UNDERDOG PLAY OF THE WEEK
Over the past 32 years this play has been a reader favorite hitting 209-155. Over the last 14 years the Underdog Play of the Week has recorded numerous OUTRIGHT UPSET WINNERS (46!) to the incredible record INCLUDING 3 more LY! Here is Week Two's Underdog Play:
ILLINOIS (+10') over Cincinnati
Second meeting with #5 Cincy winning 49-36 (-21) at home in 2009. In that game we won a 3H LPS on Illinois. Technical edges go to Cincy here as new HC Tuberville was a perfect 5-0 ATS L/2 yrs at TT as an AF while Illinois is 14-2 SU (5-11 ATS) hosting non-Big Ten opp’s and UI has lost 10 str (1-9 ATS!) vs FBS opp’s! Illini are much improved TY under Beckman and have a key addition of OC Bill Cubit along w/8 ret st’rs on off. That improved off was on display LW as the Illini raced out to 25-7 HT and 39-17 3Q leads before all’g the backdoor cover in a 42-34 win (-17) over FCS S Ill. Cincy is off a big debut win for Tuberville as they beat Purdue 42-7 (-10). The score was just 14-7 at HT and Cincy benefitted from an IR td and short drive foll’g a PU TO. With QB Kay limited w/a sore shoulder (CS), Legaux was 13 of 20 for 145 yds (2 int) and added 55 rush yds. Cincy does have the adv at the LOS with our #1 rated AAC OL vs the #12 B10 DL but Beckman desperately needs a marquee win so look for this to go down to the wire. FORECAST: ILLINOIS by 1 over Cincinnati
Is that Phil Steele? Sounds like Phil Steele. Nobody brags about himself quite as much as Phil Steele.
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:52 pm to bobbyray21
I went ahead and added some Oregon -22:
3* Oregon -21.5/22
1* Arizona -10
1* K State -10
3* Oregon -21.5/22
1* Arizona -10
1* K State -10
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:54 pm to Flatt2Flowers04
quote:
I still feel good with having Duke at -6, though if anything I expected the line to creep around -7.5. Apparently some sharps dropped some serious coin on Memphis in the last 8 hours? Makes no sense.
"Sharps" are really fricking dumb sometimes.
Posted on 9/5/13 at 7:55 pm to TheCaterpillar
quote:
It does if they were trying to move the line so they could get it at 4.5 and bet even bigger.
Happens every weekend.
This is exactly why I pay no mind to line movements. I don't know what they mean. You don't know what they mean.
fricking Marcellus doesn't know what they mean!
Posted on 9/5/13 at 8:09 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
"Sharps" are really fricking dumb sometimes.
It always makes me laugh when "sharps" talk shite about "a win is a win, no matter how close" in betting.
Yet when they have a shite week it's "Well we were on the right side. Dumb marble arse Joes got lucky".
Philly Godfather made me want to drive up there and shoot him in the face last year with all his #marbles and #cupofjoe hastags
Posted on 9/5/13 at 8:15 pm to dcrews
A writer for espn.com, Chad Millman, used to do this column called "Behind The Bets" where he would get a "sharp" to give several picksk for that week and list their rationales.
Not only were these picks consistently atrocious, the reasoning behind them was so nonsensical that one had to question whether the entire column was a huge troll job.
Now i realize that some guys gamble for a living and make money. But I don't think those guys talk about it. They can't possibly talk about it. Because if the peopel who actually claim to be "sharps" are actually the best Vegas has to offer then there isn't a single person making money betting CFB.
But I make money betting CFB, square plays and all.
Not only were these picks consistently atrocious, the reasoning behind them was so nonsensical that one had to question whether the entire column was a huge troll job.
Now i realize that some guys gamble for a living and make money. But I don't think those guys talk about it. They can't possibly talk about it. Because if the peopel who actually claim to be "sharps" are actually the best Vegas has to offer then there isn't a single person making money betting CFB.
But I make money betting CFB, square plays and all.
Posted on 9/5/13 at 8:24 pm to bobbyray21
I honestly think what separates a "good" bettor from casual or "square" bettors is knowing how to get value.
Being able to spot a line you like, know will go up and grab it early. Or knowing when to wait while the public bets the favorite hard and drives the dog's line up.
Always check what number you got at the time the betting closes versus what it opened at, and determine if you are good at finding value.
Being able to spot a line you like, know will go up and grab it early. Or knowing when to wait while the public bets the favorite hard and drives the dog's line up.
Always check what number you got at the time the betting closes versus what it opened at, and determine if you are good at finding value.
Posted on 9/5/13 at 8:30 pm to dcrews
Daddy Rikey
Toledo +17
Tulane -6(yep I said it)
Miami +3
Toledo +17
Tulane -6(yep I said it)
Miami +3
Posted on 9/5/13 at 9:48 pm to bobbyray21
quote:
Apparently some sharps dropped some serious coin on Memphis in the last 8 hours?
Those were dr. Bob followers
Posted on 9/5/13 at 9:50 pm to bamaatlsu
i kinda feel bad for that moose FAU just pulled off... but not really
Posted on 9/5/13 at 10:12 pm to imAMAZING
Oregon -22 and Illinois +8.5 may be my only plays this weekend
Posted on 9/5/13 at 10:13 pm to TigerTatorTots
I love oregon here
Posted on 9/5/13 at 10:18 pm to wish i was tebow
Its one of those lines where its too good so you have to bet it, however, in the back of your mind you know there is a high probably you get fricked.
Really makes no sense that fricking Virginia has the number at 22.
Really makes no sense that fricking Virginia has the number at 22.
Posted on 9/5/13 at 10:18 pm to dcrews
quote:
honestly think what separates a "good" bettor from casual or "square" bettors is knowing how to get value.
Being able to spot a line you like, know will go up and grab it early. Or knowing when to wait while the public bets the favorite hard and drives the dog's line up.
Always check what number you got at the time the betting closes versus what it opened at, and determine if you are good at finding value.
The first thing I do before ever looking at a single line is go through and "play bookie" and set all the lines myself. I'm actually really anal about this -- i.e. about not seeing the lines before I've set them on my own -- and sometimes will go through and do this for the next few weeks. I just feel that it's impossible for me to evaluate the games without bias if I've already seen the spread. In fact, it is. It's called an "anchor bias" or something. They've done studies.
And from there, I let the lines that I set dictate the games that I take. As the season goes on and I start hitting more and more spreads on the absolute nose, I gotta lay off those games. You can't force the Free Money. You gotta let the Free Money come to you.
So if I had to list the one thing that separates a good bettor from a bad bettor is knowing what games to lay off. And is that a quote straight from the mouth of "Captain Obvious"? Yeah, I guess so. I don't know how else to phrase it, though.
This post was edited on 9/5/13 at 10:21 pm
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