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re: Derby Hopefuls for this year?

Posted on 4/16/11 at 6:39 pm to
Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 6:39 pm to
Bo-Rail cost me a C note today. The derby of who the hell is this horse bites again
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 6:41 pm to
He's no who the hell horse. His two losses have been with excuses, and I wasn't too upset about his race in the rebel. I've liked him since the sugar bowl!!

And maybe now elite will get to rest his poor tendons
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:07 pm to
yo Aspy, you are one hell of a handicapper

Arch looked really good. Alex is just having a very disappointing season. Factor looked like he got pushed out of contention by a couple of other horses.

i ended up taking Nehro to show (got that one), but get this.. I wagered early.. Arch to win but I thought he was still in post 10. FML

also scored nicely on King Congie to show. other than that The Blue Grass killed me.

thanks to sms for Uncle Brent in race 9.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:10 pm to
We almost had around $15,000...

he did ask my opinion on Nehro and I told him to make sure to keep him.

Why sway away...? Why would you do that to me...? Why...?

Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:15 pm to
quote:

We almost had around $15,000...




Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:16 pm to
I know....

I'm pretty upset right now
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:18 pm to
sorry. i know it sucks to come that close.

he had the 9-2 exacta? what made him pick Nehro to place?
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:22 pm to
He asked me what I thought about nehro in the la.derby, and I said he was gutsy and really trying at the end. Maybe his maiden race looked good on paper? I just told him not to leave him out.

This post was edited on 4/16/11 at 7:24 pm
Posted by Bho
Lexington
Member since Dec 2007
24811 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:25 pm to
Well with that I close the book on this year's derby. You guys have fun picking a bunch of claimers. Mine that Bird would be 1/9 against this group. I've never seen such a shitty group. As far as the Bluegrass, I knew Crimson China was done when the quarter came up 25 4/5. Seriously? A grade 1 with the best riders in the world and you let some nag walk the first half in 50 4/5? WTF? The Factor was my last hope and he ran like a pig. I hate all of these horses and will not place any wager on the derby. As far as the rest of the card, I did VERY well.
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:26 pm to
i gotcha. i can't believe how wide open the Derby is right now. interested to see Jaycito next week in the Coolmore.
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:31 pm to
Baffert says displaced palate on factor

he looked pretty lethargic to me in the post parade, though
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/16/11 at 7:32 pm to


I like my arch boy

Don't know about the rest. Macho worked a good 7 furlongs today
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/23/11 at 10:38 am to
not a whole lot going on this weekend that will have a Derby impact save for the Lexington Stakes:



- biggest news out of this race is that Jaycito is still nursing a bruised foot and did not make the trip from Cali, and thus will not run.

- Silver Medallion is the only Derby contender in this field, and with about $180k graded earnings he's on the Derby bubble.

- another race to look at that could potentially have a Derby impact is the $150,000 Jerome tomorrow at Aqueduct. I like Cal Nation and Gallant Dreams there.

- next week is the $200,000 Derby Trial at Churchill that could play a factor in the Derby field
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/23/11 at 11:19 am to
I like casper's touch because he's pretty

you are gonna keep out astrology? Brave man

I like cal nation as well

oohhh, I forgot about rattlesnake bridge. He's grey, so I'll cheer for him too.

Can you tell I haven't bothered to look at the form on these races?
This post was edited on 4/23/11 at 11:26 am
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/23/11 at 7:50 pm to
two more upsets on the way to the Derby.

nice call on Astrology. he nipped Justin Phillip at the wire to place.

Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/23/11 at 9:29 pm to
neither one has the earning to make it in... don't worry

i had the 2nd and third boxed in an exacta at aqueduct horse that won was gutsy, but not nominated to the triple crown...
i like how he fought back. good pony.

and i had the third place horse win place at keeneland that little bastard was rank as shite, just like when he ran in florida.

so i'm out $10 bucks, but i was kinda just betting blind
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/25/11 at 2:47 pm to
some news and notes from the Derby trail:

Jaycito withdrawn from Derby contention

quote:

"He's not 100% and neither Bob nor I would ever run a horse just for the sake of running," said Zayat, who will be represented on May 7 by Arkansas Derby (Grade 1) and Louisiana Derby (Grade 2) runner-up Nehro.

"I believe he's a true mile-and-a-quarter horse and he would have shined, but (missing) the Derby is not the end of the world. I want to have a sound, healthy, and fit horse the rest of the year and we want to have a lot of fun with him."

Baffert added, "He's moving forward and the foot is finally healing, but there is no way I can have him ready to be competitive enough to win the Derby."

Zayat said the immediate goal is now the Belmont Stakes. Jaycito has made only one start this year, finishing a closing second in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes.


Mucho Macho Man, Stay Thirsty work on sloppy Churchill track

quote:

With the May 7 classic rapidly approaching, staying on schedule was a big factor in trainer Kathy Ritvo’s decision to send out Mucho Macho Man for a seven-furlong drill under steady rain. The Macho Uno colt covered the distance in 1:29.20 under jockey Rajiv Maragh and galloped out a mile in 1:43.80. Mucho Macho Man’s drill was the only timed move at the distance.


quote:

Stay Thirsty worked five furlongs in 1:00 under Calvin Borel, who won last year’s Kentucky Derby with Super Saver for Stay Thirsty’s trainer, Todd Pletcher. The Bernardini colt’s time was the fastest of 19 timed moves at the distance.

“I thought he breezed really well,” Pletcher said. “The time was solid and he got over the off-going well. He finished up with a good last quarter [:24.80] and galloped out [six furlongs] strongly [in 1:15]. So overall, I was really pleased.



Nehro also breezed in the slop

quote:

day's Derby contender works included a five furlong breeze from Arkansas Derby runner-up Nehro. Santa Anita Derby place finisher Comma To The Top worked at Hollywood Park on Monday morning.

#2 Nehro – Breezed 5f in 1:02.80 (18/25) at Churchill Downs (sloppy track).
#39 Comma To The Top – 5f breeze in 1:02.40 (31/40) at Hollywood Park.
This post was edited on 4/25/11 at 2:48 pm
Posted by Rohan2Reed
Member since Nov 2003
75674 posts
Posted on 4/25/11 at 2:54 pm to
likely Derby field: (according to Jeremy Plonk)

DIALED IN, UNCLE MO, TOBY'S CORNER, COMMA TO THE TOP, MIDNIGHT INTERLUDE, SHACKLEFORD, SOLDAT, STAY THIRSTY, MUCHO MACHO MAN, PANTS ON FIRE, ANIMAL KINGDOM, DECISIVE MOMENT, TWICE THE APPEAL, MASTER OF HOUNDS, WATCH ME GO, NEHRO, ARCHARCHARCH, BRILLIANT SPEED and SANTIVA.

On the fringe: SILVER MEDALLION, ANTHONY'S CROSS, TWINSPIRED, SWAY AWAY, DANCE CITY, MR. COMMONS, THE FACTOR

More in-depth look here



Posted by sms151t
Polos, Porsches, Ponies..PROBATION
Member since Aug 2009
140711 posts
Posted on 4/26/11 at 9:29 pm to
Just read they pulled The Factor so I'm clueless now guess Arch cubes is my pony unless Borel gets a mount
Posted by Aspercel
Member since Jan 2009
117150 posts
Posted on 4/26/11 at 10:02 pm to
Looks like his only chance is master of hounds...

And may I add that I've liked arch cubed all winter to me
This post was edited on 4/26/11 at 10:03 pm
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