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re: CFB Gambling thread: Week 2

Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:25 am to
Posted by Howyouluhdat
On Fleek St
Member since Jan 2015
8895 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:25 am to
Week 1 : 5-2


Week 2 early leans

Bama -36
USC + 5.5
W Virg -33
Alabama St +50.5
Posted by RoscoeHarper
Edmond, OK
Member since Aug 2011
4924 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:27 am to
quote:

this line is absurd. Typical week 1 overreaction.
Can OU cover? Absolutely. But that line should be closer to 21.5


Agreed. And I don't even think UCLA is very good.
Posted by SXV
Member since Feb 2016
1679 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:32 am to
I had a very good week 1

Auburn made me about $200 and LSU made me about $300

I also took VT at nearly 3:1 odds but only for $20, dammit

I basically put my money on the SEC West being good and the other teams being overrated. I did not bet on Bama because I didn’t know how much coach would play Jalen which I felt would hold back out scoring. It did obviously but we still would have covered. I’m hoping to have almost as good results in week 2 but I haven’t even paid attention to the matchups yet.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 8:34 am
Posted by BobRoss
Member since Jun 2014
1718 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:38 am to
Could someone please explain USM -6 VS. ULM to me? Seems like USM should be favored by alot more.
Posted by RoscoeHarper
Edmond, OK
Member since Aug 2011
4924 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 8:51 am to
Why does it seem like they should be favored by a lot more?
Posted by JG77056
Vegas baby, Vegas
Member since Sep 2010
12073 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:04 am to
Took TCU -13.5 1h tomorrow
Posted by Mac
Forked Island, USA
Member since Nov 2007
14784 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:07 am to
Since 2005, ranked teams that started the season on the road or played neutral-site games have gone 33-50-1 (40%) ATS in their first game back on campus. In the past 10 years, teams in this situation have been even worse: 24-47-1 (34%) ATS.

Qualifying teams:

Michigan
Virginia Tech
Alabama
Washington
Miami
West Virginia
UCF
LSU
Auburn
Boise State
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
92735 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:08 am to
Got killed last weekend

USCe +10 5.5 to win 5

Only play best of luck
Posted by LSUShock
Kansas
Member since Jun 2014
5516 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:26 am to
quote:

I’m also not as high on Snyder as others are. He hasn’t had a good team in 6 years. That’s a LONG time in the college football world. He’s gone through almost 2 full rosters at this point.


Agreed. Snyder has made his living being a little better than average in the Big XII during his second stint outside of 2012. Their 2014 team was good as well. This isn't a bad thing either, it's pretty much their ceiling, but he gets way too much credit for being an elite coach. They struggle in early season games vs OOC teams. Snyder hated the push towards big time OOC matchups early in the year. The only thing they have going for them is a 11am kickoff in Manhattan, Kansas.

My Picks (4-2 YTD)

Miss St -8.5
Mich State -6.5
Fresno St ML
Posted by BobRoss
Member since Jun 2014
1718 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:37 am to
quote:

Why does it seem like they should be favored by a lot more?


Regarding USM vs. ULM.

1) USM has a better program
2) USM beat ULM @ ULM by 11 last year
3) USM performed better in their opener against a similar opponent.
Posted by RoscoeHarper
Edmond, OK
Member since Aug 2011
4924 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 9:44 am to
quote:

1) USM has a better program
2) USM beat ULM @ ULM by 11 last year
3) USM performed better in their opener against a similar opponent


I'll provide the other side (not saying you're wrong).

1. In a one game scenario, who has the better program means nothing (USM has recruited slightly better though).
2. In regards to this years game, last year means next to nothing.
3. I don't think their opponents were really similar. Jackson St is just on a whole other level of awful.

In addition, ULM is a very experienced team, while USM is not.
Posted by bstew3006
318
Member since Dec 2007
12984 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:07 am to
15-8 YTD

Games Circled:
Ark St +37
Ark -13
S. Carolina +10.5
S. Miss -5.5
Ball State +35
Rice +17.5
Duke +2.5
Oklahoma o64
Ohio State o64
Nebraska -3
Clemson o54
Miss State -9

*I'll most likely bet the over in Okla and OSU every week. They will try to hang 100 if they can.
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 2:01 pm
Posted by LSUTigers00884
Lafayette
Member since Oct 2011
1165 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:32 am to
@SXV

Good for you man. I was too nervous for the Auburn game to bet on. And I was so unsure on LSU's offense.

But great picks. The SEC vs out of conference games is definitely something to watch as the season unfolds.
Posted by LSUTigers00884
Lafayette
Member since Oct 2011
1165 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 10:33 am to
@Mac

This is incredible info. Thanks for contributing man.

ETA: @Mac, where did you get that info if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!
This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 10:44 am
Posted by BobRoss
Member since Jun 2014
1718 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:23 am to
Fair analysis.
Posted by Drunken Crawfish
Member since Apr 2017
3883 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:36 am to
quote:

UGA -10 @ USCe


I have a weird feeling we're in for some craziness in Columbia this weekend. UGA is running in a young team into Williams-Brice that will be rockin'. I picked USCe -9.5 in our pick 'em.
Posted by Mac
Forked Island, USA
Member since Nov 2007
14784 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:46 am to
quote:

ETA: @Mac, where did you get that info if you don't mind me asking? Thanks!
Action network article, but I remember reading the same thing in years past.
Posted by Sader1990
Metairie
Member since Jun 2013
1095 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 11:47 am to
quote:

I have a weird feeling we're in for some craziness in Columbia this weekend. UGA is running in a young team into Williams-Brice that will be rockin'. I picked USCe -9.5 in our pick 'em.


My book has it at 10. Im interested to see if it moves up a little. The money is coming in 54% on UGA. I'll probably wait til Saturday morning to place the bet. I like USCe as well.
Posted by jTy
Fayetteville, AR
Member since Jan 2018
103 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 12:48 pm to
using Caesars from Goldsheet

Clemson -12 (wins by 2TDs minimum)
Arkansas -13 (Co St. is bad)
Iowa St. +3.5 (like Campbell alot)
Posted by Azazello
Member since Sep 2011
3227 posts
Posted on 9/6/18 at 3:21 pm to
Season record 6-1

Week 2:
Georgia -10
Missouri -18
Memphis -7
Oklahoma -30
Miss St -9.5
Bama -36.5
Ctl Mich -6.5
Maryland o65.5
Arkansas o70
Memphis o69


This post was edited on 9/6/18 at 3:23 pm
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