re: CFB bets week 13

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imAMAZING

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lemme know what you pick tomorrow, hope you can write an analysis for me.

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Alright here you go. pretty tired long day but great day betting wise and LSU wise so please excuse mispellings grammical mistakes and all that. been on alittle heater so hopefully can keep it up:

NC STATE -12

Love NCST here. NCST has been playing good ball lately (as hard as it is to believe) and this is a must win to to become eligible (which is huge IMO). Maryland is just a deafeated team who is one of the worst teams this year ATS. I really look for NCST to pull away in this game

UGA -6

I havent beem high on UGA this year but I think they are just a much better team in this matchup. I feel like UGA played so bad against Kentucky because they were preparing for the option. I dont think they will over look this game as its a in state rivalry game that they want to win. This isnt the same Ga tech team as in the past. been a pretty bad team this year. small amount of points to lay here think its the right side

Rutgers -4

Not much here just think its the right play. may not even bet this game just thought i would post since I might play

Vandy -1.5

Once again not much to say about this game I think the better team will win here and IMO vandy is a better team. I just dont see Wake mustering a win here. my rule of thumb when its SEC vs ACC, side with the SEC

Bama -21

auburn just wont be able to move the ball against Bama. This auburn team is really bad and i see Bama rolling in this one and in this hated rivalry dont feel like a team will let up. Aub is playing defeated and they will probably come in with alot of energy and that will fizzle quickly. Dont see aub being able to stop Trich either. This could be the game that seals the heisman for him and bama knows that, they will keep feeding him the ball

UNDER 49.5 Clemson/USCe

USCe has a really good D and a terrible O. Clemson has been struggling to score lately I see this game being really low scoring just cant see this game going in the high 20's/30's


Hope these are good picks and good analysis BOL whoever you bet on if you roll with me i hope i make you some moniess! If i have a good morning i will probably play oregon and stanford as well probably over in stanford game will post those later as long as morning goes wells.

If anyone has a game they are looking at and wants my input just post it and ill gladly give my 2cents if you want it.

GL to all i will check in as much as possible tomorrow got some stuff to do early but will be here afternoon. Love all my degens in this thread hopefully we can get our own board to do this even better go support my thread on the help board to try to get a "wager lounge" as the guys are calling it

GL BOL

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Advice: Hedge my bet?

I have a 3 team parlay to win 250 right now.

LSU -12
LSU 53.5 over

both hit

the other game is Michigan -7.5

should I hedge it to guarantee winnings? bet 100 on Ohio state to cover 7.5?

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If you are still confident in your Michigan bet, I would only hedge to where you don't lose any money. Maybe just a bit more I wouldn't split it down the middle.

Howdy there Okie!

Rg3 heisman push has me thinking baylor

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T3 you got a feel on Tech Baylor? I'm scared Tech shows up in Dallas for some reason.

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Funny you ask...I am actually in the middle of doing a statistical analysis of that game right now. Leaning Tech as of now

Thanks for the input guys...I may just hedge it to make a little back. But I want the hope of michigan covering just to see if I'm that good!

Anyway, I'll be back on here to make some more bets tomorrow. Haven't looked too closely at the games, yet.

A big reason is that this is Tech's last opportunity to become bowl eligible. 5 dimes has +13.5. I would LOVE 14 but I may suck it up and take 13.5. Still doing a little more research though

Baylor/Texas Tech (+13.5)write up


Right on the surface I took a look at the schedules. Here is what stood out to me:

1-Baylor just won their 'superbowl' in a hard fought, emotional win against 5th ranked OU...Let down possible
2-Next week Baylor is slated to go up against in state rival Texas...look ahead possible
3-Texas Tech is 5-6, this game is an absolute must win to become bowl eligible b/c they have no games left
4-The line makes it seem like the game is at Baylor when it is really at a neutral site


Digging deeper into statistics:

1-Of the 6 most important defensive statistical categories (PPG, Total Yards, passing yards, rushing yards, 1st downs allowed, and 3rd down %), Baylor only has 1 where they rank better than 107 (which is passing yards per game, they are ranked 95)
Texas Tech's D isn't much better, but in a situation like this, Baylors terrible D could allow an easy back door TD at the end of the game or even allow it to be a close game, but high scoring.
2-Tech is 21 in the country in turnovers given away, Baylor-86th.
3-Baylor does have the end in many offensive statistics but with shitty defenses, that edge really is negated.


I really didn't go in depth into the analysis, I think the letdown/look ahead factor alone combined with Tech's need of a W is enough to bet on Tech

Also I think Iowa State +28 @ OU might be worth a look. Forecast for the game (which I will be at gross) is very cold and super high winds. OU probably wins this one in ugly fashion.

Adding - Kentucky +7.5