re: CFB bets BOWL SEASON!

How we all won that teaser still blows my mind a day later.

no doubt

after a hour or so capping this air force game i will roll with toledo in this one..

After checking out the radar for Washington DC it looks like the teams might be dealing with some wind in this contest. First instinct for most would that this forecast would favor the option game of Air Force and hamper the high-flying act that is the Toledo offense. As the cynial Lee Corso says - "Not so fast my friend"

A case can be made that that the more favorable match up in this game would be the Toledo rushing offense vs. the AF rushing def as opposed to the AF rushing offense vs the Toledo rushing def. This thread below best illustrates this match up so rather than rehashing the numbers just check it out for yourself.


A few things I would like to add

-Only 16 teams in the nation allow more than 5.0 ypc. Air Force is one of those 16
-Only 21 teams in the nation rush for more than 5.0 ypc. Toledo is in that 21 club.

-Both Toledo and Air Force rank high in the number of 10+ yard runs their offense has accumulated this season (AF:114 and Toledo:82). However, on the defensive side only one of these teams rank high in 10+ yard runs allowed (Toledo: 46 and Air Force 82). So with Toledo having the same number of 10+ rushes as what Air Force has allowed that draws me to the conclusion that Toledo should have exactly 6.8 gashes of 10+ yards in this game. I know it doesnt always work like that but will be something fun to follow.

-What about rushing on 3rd and short? (1 to 3 yards)
--No team has attempted more rushes on 3rd and 1-3 yards to go than what Air Force has this year. In the 63 times they have run the ball on 3rd down and 1-3 to go they have only cashed in a first down 38 times, which works out to converting a first down 60% of the time. They have only passed 2 times all season in that down and distance situation.
--What about Toledos rushing def when it comes to 3rd and 1-3 to go? Teams have only converted first downs on 12/26 attempts (46%) and on those 26 attempts teams have only had a yard per carry average of 1.7.
---Flip the script and its another + for Toledo: 3rd down 1-3 Toledo Rush vs AF def
Toledo: 28/41 (68%) Air Force run d: 38/53 (72%) 3.6 ypc allowed.

Although Toledo has given up a pile of points this year their rush defense is under-rated. This game could be played in a hurricane and I would still take Toledo.

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-Only 16 teams in the nation allow more than 5.0 ypc. Air Force is one of those 16
-Only 21 teams in the nation rush for more than 5.0 ypc. Toledo is in that 21 club.

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good stat Toledo looks good

toledo isnt a good teaser game its almost likely to be the same result at -3.5 and +2.5

taking texas and toledo even may pay better than the 2 team teaser with them?

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I either like:
Toledo +2.5
Texas -2.5

or

Toledo Under 77
Texas -2.5

What yall think??

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i wouldn't tease these games unless you were on the dogs.. im a teasing maniac and im playing these straight up

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so wait, who you like?

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Like the under, not gonna touch the line as it stands right now. I think that air force should be able to to pressure the Toledo QB's and make it interesting. I am really banking on air force being able to run the ball well and burn clock

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i mean like ML on a parlay 20 pays 30.48

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im going to come up with a parlay as well but i may throw a nba game into it for bigger payout with less invested

Really think Toledo has to be the play to night. They might not get it done but I think it's the play


GL

Y'all will be hearing more from me real soon as the games I like are starting to kick up

I agree Texas is the play to..... I dont like agreeing with y'all

I think UT has far better athletes


The over in Texas game might be played by me even though UT D has been above average