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Started By
Message
re: CFB Advanced Metrics and Computer Polls, Week 12
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:29 pm to KosmoCramer
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:29 pm to KosmoCramer
quote:
There's also film study and adjustments, among other factors.
I feel like I could make adjustments and corrections all I wanted but if it's even with talent, it'd be more like the LSU vs Alabama 2012-2013 games, where it was similar both games. Weird to see a blow out then a loss in 90 days like Nebraska had. I'm not asking you to justify the why just trying to see if any data is supporting that one team was getting worse, while one team was getting much better?
1
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:33 pm to gobuxgo5
Young/ inexperienced teams have a lot of variance.
It's also a bowl game which is a crap shoot.
I dont want to back source the data tonight
.
It's also a bowl game which is a crap shoot.
I dont want to back source the data tonight
.This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 10:34 pm
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:41 pm to shel311
quote:Not that it's a huge difference, but I found 7 measures of SOS, with a range of 2 to 22, a mean of about 14, and a median of 13. Regardless, I completely agree with this specific statement. I too would rank LSU ahead of Alabama, because I believe the results on the field matter, especially when two teams are comparably good.
It's entirely valid and rational to say the team with the #2 SOS in the nation that is undefeated should not be behind a team with a loss that they beat on the road who has a lower rated SOS.
My whole disagreement is that you have argued that any model that is trying to provide a quantifiable estimates (with error around each estimate) of each team based on some specific measurement scale (usually points or win probabilities) for ALL FBS teams that doesn't have the team ranked the same way should be disregarded. And you're entire rationale is based on the very specific criteria used purely for the relative ranking of two teams, and despite all of those metrics being only one rank off of your own.
What is frustarting is that I've spent years reading and often actively agreeing with your arguments when people ignore the process for the outcome, argue that a single=-game or event somewhat changes an entire season even career (e.g., Ray Allen hitting hitting the 3 didn't make Lebron and his career better or worse), and using ignoring the objective data and adding subjective criteria when the objective data do not fit its argument.
quote:But since every model ever created for any purpose has its flaws, especially when getting to granular level, would you argue that one should disregard them all? If not, then why would you do it here?
Albeit, with their flaws.
OR can we just agree that the models provide a pretty good estimate, WITH MARGIN OF ERRORS, and when the relative rankings of two teams doesn't seem right but still falls within that margin and is only one place off, then that's not enough to outright disregard the entire model altogether, especially before the complete data set if available?
Posted on 11/18/19 at 10:54 pm to gobuxgo5
quote:Looking at the box scores I can identify a couple of possibilities:
Any metrics on this? In September 2010, Nebraska beat Washington 56-21.
Then on December 30th, they lose to Washington in a bowl game 7-19?
It truly shows how teams get better or worse during the year, but looking back, does anything stand out as to why this happened? Nebraska won by 5 touchdowns to only putting up 1 against the same team in 3 months.
1. Nebraska had a bunch of huge rushing plays in the first game (80 and 65), and appeared to just "pour it on" scoring the final 3 TDs.
2. Nebraska had a +1 TO margin in game 1 and a -2 TO margin in game 2.
3. Nebraska had 49 yards worth of penalties in game 1 and 102 yards in game 2.
4. Taylor Martinez and Jake Locker were to really inconsistent players, looking like superstars in some games and terrible in others.
5. Nebraska ended the season losing 3 of 4 games (after a 9 and 1 start) while Washington won it's last 4 games (after a 3 and 6 start).
6. Both head coaches were known to have either serious anger issues (Pelini) and meltdowns or substance abuse issues (Sarkisian).
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 11:01 pm
Posted on 11/18/19 at 11:11 pm to buckeye_vol
Sark after dark
Great post Vols
Great post Vols
This post was edited on 11/18/19 at 11:12 pm
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:48 am to KosmoCramer
quote:
pretty easy to see why the metrics and computers aren't loving LSU.
oh yeah?
Explain bama head to head loss to undefeated lsu in your pretty easy algorithm.
No way.
You are stupid and asking us to be stupid too.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:49 am to CelticDog
quote:
oh yeah?
Explain bama head to head loss to undefeated lsu in your pretty easy algorithm.
No way.
You are stupid and asking us to be stupid too.
Welcome to the thread.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:51 am to CelticDog
LSU has not had great defense all year. Bama has other than LSU game. Obviously these computers are not perfect and it got the game wrong. Why you LSU fans are so insecure over a computer result is beyond me.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 7:55 am to KosmoCramer
quote:
Welcome to the thread.
lmao bro there went my coffee
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:03 am to bucknut15
quote:
great defense all year. Bama has other than LSU game
Bama hadnt played anyone with a pulse
Just like Ohio State
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:17 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Looking at the box scores I can identify a couple of possibilities:
1. Nebraska had a bunch of huge rushing plays in the first game (80 and 65), and appeared to just "pour it on" scoring the final 3 TDs.
2. Nebraska had a +1 TO margin in game 1 and a -2 TO margin in game 2.
3. Nebraska had 49 yards worth of penalties in game 1 and 102 yards in game 2.
4. Taylor Martinez and Jake Locker were to really inconsistent players, looking like superstars in some games and terrible in others.
5. Nebraska ended the season losing 3 of 4 games (after a 9 and 1 start) while Washington won it's last 4 games (after a 3 and 6 start).
6. Both head coaches were known to have either serious anger issues (Pelini) and meltdowns or substance abuse issues (Sarkisian).
I have to admit... The last thing I expected to see on the MSB today was an argument around the the performance of the 2010 UW team with a breakdown of box scores between the Nebraska games
The offense was trash in both games. If I remember right, Locker ran the ball effectively and at key times during the bowl game.
The defense was led by Nick Holt (somehow the current DC at Purdue). He'd come up with a brilliant defensive game plan about twice a year. The other 10 games he'd be completely clueless. The 1st Nebraska game fell in the former category, the 2nd in the latter.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 8:20 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Jake Locker
Hadn't heard that name in a while. Wasn't he a Titans bust?
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:04 am to SDVTiger
And another ignorant poster in the thread
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:20 am to CelticDog
quote:^ Doesn’t know what FPI is.
oh yeah?
Explain bama head to head loss to undefeated lsu in your pretty easy algorithm.
No way.
You are stupid and asking us to be stupid too.
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:21 am to bucknut15
quote:
And another ignorant poster in the thread
Another butthurt over reality Buckeye
What else is new with this board you have all infiltrated
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:22 am to SDVTiger
quote:SOS
Bama hadnt played anyone with a pulse
Just like Ohio State
LSU 17
tOSU 21
More work needed from you.
quote:It’s always easy to spot the guys who have no idea what they’re talking about.
Another butthurt over reality Buckeye
What else is new with this board you have all infiltrated
This post was edited on 11/19/19 at 9:23 am
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:32 am to xiv
How would you address the claim that playing FCS teams is the same as playing Miami of Ohio and Florida Atlantic because none of these teams have a real chance to beat a top 5 team?
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:39 am to KosmoCramer
quote:I’d cite that the bottom 25 in my rankings have a 22-2 record vs FCS. Anyone who says that playing bad FBS teams is the same as playing FCS teams is simply uninformed.
How would you address the claim that playing FCS teams is the same as playing Miami of Ohio and Florida Atlantic because none of these teams have a real chance to beat a top 5 team?
This post was edited on 11/19/19 at 9:40 am
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:42 am to xiv
quote:
Anyone who says that playing bad FBS teams is the same as playing FCS teams is simply uninformed.
told em dude
@xiv knows way more than you @slackster and @shell311
Posted on 11/19/19 at 9:42 am to SDVTiger
Infiltrated? Many of us have been on this board for years more than you. Most of us contribute instead of posting drivel as you are doing.
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