re: bpfergu's bowl picks - all of 'em! Follow me to win some moolah!

Great insight! Screw the people that think it's too much! Keep it coming!

quote:

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That being said, TCU wins this by a touchdown or so, with LaTech falling just short of that magic mid-30s number

My score:
TCU: 34
Latech: 28

So I’m taking LaTech +10.5 and the over

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nicely done. keep em coming.

No shite....this guy has been money thus far

Good shite.

Sorry guys I've been really busy with Christmas and work stuff so I wasn't able to do the Boise Game. Kind of wished I did now because it looked to be pretty juicy. :)

Hawaii Bowl
No. 22 Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles (11-2 Overall) (7-2 Conference USA)

vs.

Nevada Wolf Pack (7-5 Overall) (5-2 Western Athletic Conference)

Southern Mississippi
The Golden Eagles come into this game with a pretty efficient offense, being top 35 in the country in rushing yards, passing yards, total yards, and points. Specifically, they are averaging nearly 40 points a game and over 470 total yards of offense.

Their ground game is pretty divided between their top 2 Rbs, Jamal Woodyard and Tracy Lampley, as well as their QB, Austin Davis. Combined the 2 Rbs have amassed around 1100 yards and 6 Tds on the season, while Davis has tacked on another 430 yards and 4 Tds of his own.

Speaking of Davis, he has had a pretty good season so far, throwing for over 3300 yards with 28 Tds and 11 interceptions.

One semi-weakness of Southern Miss has been their inability to finish a drive with a TD. They've had to “settle” for a lot of field goals. Specifically, Danny Hrapmann, their kicker, has average around 2.5 field goals a game.

Their defense has also been serviceable, limiting their opponents to 21 points a game and less than 350 total yards. In fact, they have only allowed the opponent to score more than 30 points twice this season, going 1-1 in those games.

Their SOS has been pretty bad, having the 70th most difficult schedule. They have played 5 winning FBS teams, and have went 4-1, ending with the surprising victory over Houston.

Nevada
Nevada has also enjoyed a very successful offense. They are averaging of 250 yards on the ground per game, another 270 in the air, and an impressive 522 total yards per game. This has converted into approximately 33 points a game.

Their running attack began the season with Mike Ball, who was have a phenomenal season. In the 6 games he played completely, he was averaging well over 100 yards rushing. Unfortunately, he was kicked off the team and has not played in the past 4 games. Since then Cody Fajardo has stepped up and has been averaging around 80 yards a game himself, as well as Lampford Mark. Lampford is on a 5 game streak of over 100 yards rushing, and will be vital in their run attack against Southern Miss.

Speaking of Cody, he is also their current QB. He replaced Tyler Lantrip, their senior QB, 5 games into the season. Both Qbs are dual-threat Qbs and have had success running Nevada's offense this season. That being said, Cody has had a less-than-stellar passing game. While he has had a very good year in terms of pass efficiency (he has completed over 71% of his passes), he has only thrown for 1640 yards over 7 games to the tune of 6 Tds and 5 interceptions. One small note to make is that Lantrip is going to get to start the first drive of the game, with Cody most likely coming in right after to play the bulk of the game. Look for his favorite target to be Rishard Matthews, who has went for over 100 yards receiving in 7 games this season.

Nevada's defense has been average. They are in the 50s to 60s in just about every significant defensive category. They've allowed their opponent to score 30 or more points in 5 games, going 2-3 in those games. One bright spot has been Brett Roy, who averages nearly a sack a game.

Nevada's SOS has been awful. They play the 91st hardest schedule and against winning FBS teams they are 0-4 this season.

The Verdict
Southern Mississippi -8.5
o/u 63.5

There seem to be a lot of layers to this game. On one end you have Nevada, which has appeared to be firing on all cylinders lately, putting out impressive numbers on both passing and rushing with the emergence of Lampford Mark and Fajardo. On the other, you have a potent Southern Miss team who has not be slouching by any means, either, and has also come off of a impressive win over Houston.

I think it is important to break things down a bit further. Let's start with Southern Miss. Their 2 losses were by 6 points and 3 points, and there were only 3 other games where their opponent was within 3 scores of them. Their 2 losses are kind of odd, because neither Marshall or UAB are particularly good. They also have one common opponent with Nevada in Louisiana Tech, but it was the first game of the season. That being said, Nevada allowed nearly 200 more yards on the ground than Southern Mississippi did, which instantly makes me question the validity of their rush defense, as well as their “potent” offense because they were only able to score 17 on them.

In terms of their opponents, many of the variables are shockingly close. Average opponent rush offense, pass offense, total offense, scoring offense, rush defense, pass defense, scoring defense, and total defense are so close it is not possible to really decipher any trends from it. Because of this, for simplicity purposes, we are going to assume that both teams played the same hypothetical schedule.

Now what difference can we make out then?
A very obvious one.

Nevada is 0-4 against teams with winning records.

Southern Miss is 4-1.

Now if we take out the numbers from the teams with winning records that Nevada played against, here is what we get for the “average” opponent:

93rd best rush offense
50th best pass offense
70th best total offense
77th best scoring offense
93rd best rush defense
86th best pass defense
92nd best scoring defense
102nd total
86th best SOS

Seriously?? All this shows me is that their “impressive” offense is ridiculously over hyped and they can only win against teams that average 90-100th in defense. In fact, if you look at their offensive performance against the 4 winning teams they played, they averaged a full 100 yards less on offense.

So lets say they “average” what they have against other winning teams in terms of offense. They would be around 40th in the nation. Assuming this, Southern Miss has played 4 other teams this season with comparable or better offenses and won every.single.game. In addition, Southern Miss has played equal or better defense, and average at or near their season average in every game.

Southern Miss has consistently shown that they simply don't allow more than low to mid 30 point scores from their opponents, even ones with better offenses. This, coupled with what I believe is an inflated offensive output for Nevada as well as difficulty in scoring Tds in the red zone makes me think they are going to score less points than most people expect.

Southern Miss has scored less than 30 points only twice in the last 11 games, so it is safe to assume that they are going to put up more than 30 here, especially considering that Nevada is actually around 100th in the nation in total defense against winning teams this season.

All of my predictors are really pointing towards this being a pretty convincing win for Southern Miss. I guess we shall see.

My prediction:
Southern Miss: 35
Nevada: 21

My only hesitation is on the over/under. Southern Miss has a chance to really blow these guys out of the water. However, I feel that Nevada's heavy reliance on their hot RB wil help keep the score a little lower due to longer drives.

So I'm taking Southern Miss -8.5 and the under.