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re: Basketball strategy question
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:49 am to castorinho
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:49 am to castorinho
Fair enough, should have said most likely scenario. Is there a link to Golden saying they were trying to foul?
Further, yes you have to get them in the backcourt once they cross the line or get going toward the basket too risky.
Further, yes you have to get them in the backcourt once they cross the line or get going toward the basket too risky.
0
Posted on 3/23/26 at 5:56 am to Jim Rockford
quote:No, the one thing you don’t do is let them get an open 3.
The one thing you don't do is let them shoot a layup.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 6:47 am to OhioLSUfan
quote:
He’s full of it. Golden had his defense playing in front of the Hawkeyes going for a steal. If he was fouling they would’ve playing behind them, let them catch the ball then foul.
Maybe he is but it's not like saying that was the intention gets him off the hook.
Commentators were discussing it at the end of the Alabama - Texas Tech blowout.
They said the same as you but were thinking maybe Fland et al were confused and played it like a last second steal or foul situation.
Clear that Golden did a horrible job of communicating to his guards in the last minute regardless since Lee seemed to not know 4 seconds wasn't enough time to drive to the lane and dish either.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:03 am to wm72
It was a strange change of philosophy in the Kansas game that did them in
All game long, KU defensive strategy was to make St John’s beat them with their shooting. But when it mattered the most, they seemed to completely abandon that strategy…guarding on the perimeter and leaving a wide open lane to drive 1-on-1 for the game-winning layup.
I’d much rather live with giving St John’s a jumper than allowing a layup. Honestly, I would have have the center camp in the paint from the start on that final play for some rim protection. If their guy hits a jumpshot to win because of that, you live with it
All game long, KU defensive strategy was to make St John’s beat them with their shooting. But when it mattered the most, they seemed to completely abandon that strategy…guarding on the perimeter and leaving a wide open lane to drive 1-on-1 for the game-winning layup.
I’d much rather live with giving St John’s a jumper than allowing a layup. Honestly, I would have have the center camp in the paint from the start on that final play for some rim protection. If their guy hits a jumpshot to win because of that, you live with it
Posted on 3/23/26 at 7:15 am to RandySavage
I think this scenario is more interesting than I originally thought. That being said you are living entirely too much in the moment. That was a horrible defensive possession by Florida.
It feels like your whole theory assumes the team that is behind is going to get a wide open look from 3 from a great shooter every time and that they will almost for sure make that shot.
For every time it works like that there are countless times more it does not. You act like we have buzzer beater every time someone is up 2.
It feels like your whole theory assumes the team that is behind is going to get a wide open look from 3 from a great shooter every time and that they will almost for sure make that shot.
For every time it works like that there are countless times more it does not. You act like we have buzzer beater every time someone is up 2.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:13 am to RandySavage
Stirtz hits 90% from FT line. It’d have been stupid to foul him bc then you are just extending the game 5 more minutes. Unless the opposing team has all their stars fouled out, I don’t think playing 5 more minutes is an advantage at all.
I think the only time when it’s smart to foul is if it’s:
#1. One and One free throws
#2. A bad free throw shooter
Then intentionally fouling at certain spots of the game makes sense
If you give up a last second 3, you have what a 34% chance of losing? Assuming a 34% chance the guy makes it
If you go to OT and play 5 more minutes, your chances of losing are way more than 34%
I think the only time when it’s smart to foul is if it’s:
#1. One and One free throws
#2. A bad free throw shooter
Then intentionally fouling at certain spots of the game makes sense
If you give up a last second 3, you have what a 34% chance of losing? Assuming a 34% chance the guy makes it
If you go to OT and play 5 more minutes, your chances of losing are way more than 34%
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 9:17 am
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:51 am to RandySavage
quote:
Watching this Florida game... I don't think I've ever seen this but would foul in this situation? Up 2 less than ten seconds. Worst case they make two you get a last shot and you're the better team you would welcome overtime. Other option you let it all ride on a 3 by the other team that of course they just hit.
Considering the best offenses in college basketball score 1.2 points per possession this is a very flawed thought. Add to the fact that Florida is a good defensive team and coming out of a stoppage have a set defense the expected ppp on that possession was likely under 1.2. So in no way would it make any sense to foul up 2. Also consider the opposing team could make the first FT and miss the second possibly allowing them to rebound the ball and have a chance at a 2 to win the game.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 9:53 am to RandySavage
Florida should have fouled. Worst case it goes into OT and Florida was going to foul all of Iowa's bigs out the game in the extra 5 minutes.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 10:03 am to RandySavage
quote:
Coaches also punted on almost every fourth down for nearly a century before everyone realized how stupid that was. I guarantee you if an analytics nerd ran the numbers what I'm saying would come out as the better strategy in that specific scenario.
Nope. Point per possession for the best teams in CBB are around 1.22. Elite teams shoots 35ish% from 3. Florida holds teams to low 30s% on average. None of that data points toward gifting the opposing team a 70+% chance at evening up the score unless of course you try to funnel the ball to a weak FT shooter and then foul him.
Posted on 3/23/26 at 2:36 pm to redfishfan
Points per possession is not really relevant as much as percentage of possessions they make a fg.
Again, you're assuming they even make both free throws and even moreso discounting that in the scenario i presented your team will get the ball back with a chance to win in regulation even if they tie it up. Ultimately if i know I'm the better team I'm not letting it come down to one shot if i can help it and i guarantee the math would back it up.
Again, you're assuming they even make both free throws and even moreso discounting that in the scenario i presented your team will get the ball back with a chance to win in regulation even if they tie it up. Ultimately if i know I'm the better team I'm not letting it come down to one shot if i can help it and i guarantee the math would back it up.
This post was edited on 3/23/26 at 2:39 pm
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