re: 2017 Non-GS Tennis Thread

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"But clay"... yeah, I know. Still, you can't tell me clay is enough to push the odds over +400.

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Briefly, because I really should be doing work, it appears that the above is where our viewpoints diverge. Clay emphasizes the need to move swiftly -- and keep moving swiftly..for hours -- and de-emphasizes pure shotmaking. My estimation of the practical significance of that for a player like Delpo is clearly much higher than yours. Delpo moves magnificently for a guy who is 6-7....but he IS still 6-7 and grinding away on clay for hours is not going to ever be his particular brand of Vodka. He will not grind out Rafa on clay in 10 matches or 50 matches. T

he only way he has a chance against Rafa on clay is to simply hit him clean off the court. He can absolutely do that on a hard court. He can absolutely do that on a grass court. But he can't do it on a clay court, and certainly not with a non-attacking wing.

I can't knock you for your odds-based analysis as it is something I might be inclined to do myself, but two points in response thereto:
1) Odds are going to reflect current bettor assessment of a given player's level, and it might not have been crystal clear to John Q Degenerate what kind of form Mr Nadal is in right now. What would you set the line at if he played Alex Zverev on a clay court tomorrow? Would you dare set it less than -1000? If you saw it at less than -1000 might you mortgage your house to take Rafa? I would consider it...except I don't actually own any real property at present.

2) Those odds are also going be about 20% or so bigger when you switch over to a best of 5 set format. Okay, I pulled 20% out of my arse, and I don't know what the actual math is on that, but I do know that it's a significant difference, which makes sense.

2a) And so call me what you will for what I am about to say, but I'm not so sure Rafa wouldn't be up near -1000 against Delpo in a five setter. I certainly wouldn't expect it to be less than -750, and I'd jump on it if it were.

With regards to my Thiem over/under, I think 2.5 is too high because Thiem's gonna win 3 matches out of 10 against Rafa right now on clay like I'm gonna have nationally televised unprotected sex with Daniela Lopez Osorio. Okay, that's slight hyperbole, but I certainly don't see it happening. I would be tempted to set it at 2, but hate integer over/unders. I always set mine at half points.

But in case some context was needed:

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I wish Madrid still had the blue clay so I could hear the players bitch about it. They don't even like the 2,000 ft elevation as it is.

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They could play on pink and purple striped courts as long as the ballgirl situation stays the same.

Pro- Fed

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I wish Madrid still had the blue clay

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That would be awesome, but I wish somebody somewhere would at least use a different colored ball on clay for a change.

Blue clay
"Red" clay-colored balls

Or vice versa

That would be sweet looking

Pouille getting disrepected in the markets again. At +6600 (same odds as F Lopez lol) I have to put something on it and look to hedge if he makes the final. With Rafa, Joker, Kyrgios, and Raonic in the other half, he would only be a dog against 3 guys in the top half imo, and I like his chances against Murray and Stan. Thiem would be the biggest challenge.

The Jizzrag losing to Mahut on clay is inexcusable.

I just have to post the full scoreline for lulz and future reference.

0-6 6-0 7-6(0)

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I just have to post the full scoreline for lulz and future reference.

0-6 6-0 7-6(0)

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It would be way funnier if he wasn't on my fantasy tennis team*. And even though it cost me points, it's still pretty funny. Only Gael Monfils.



*Yes, I know I'm a dork