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Message
Vertex Energy (VTNR)
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:18 pm
Posted on 7/28/22 at 2:18 pm
- purchased 90 mbpd mobile refinery in april for 75 million plus inventory value
- USGC refiner gasoline/kero/distillate/vgo crack averaged 45 $/bbl Q2 if we assume 25% yield of each and LLS feedstock
- short interest looks to be at 25%
- market cap sub 1B
Back of the envelope for q2 the refinery should net ~150 million even if they only average 60 mbpd. Refinery margins on the gulf coast continue to be strong in Jul. I've heard they are planning a turnaround in q3... not sure about details.
earnings for q2 out on aug. 9th
Seems like lots of upside but what am I missing?
full disclosure I purchased aug 15C and a few shares early today
- USGC refiner gasoline/kero/distillate/vgo crack averaged 45 $/bbl Q2 if we assume 25% yield of each and LLS feedstock
- short interest looks to be at 25%
- market cap sub 1B
Back of the envelope for q2 the refinery should net ~150 million even if they only average 60 mbpd. Refinery margins on the gulf coast continue to be strong in Jul. I've heard they are planning a turnaround in q3... not sure about details.
earnings for q2 out on aug. 9th
Seems like lots of upside but what am I missing?
full disclosure I purchased aug 15C and a few shares early today
3
Posted on 7/29/22 at 9:27 am to ProbyOne
Deleted -- misjudged timing of the acquisition
This post was edited on 7/29/22 at 9:29 am
Posted on 8/8/22 at 3:39 pm to Longer Tail Tiger
quote:
An interest point to note is that Vertex is one of the most shorted stocks in the US markets. The reason behind that is the huge volume of new shares that would result from the CB at conversion. Consequently, CB holders hedge their risk by shorting the stock, which make it very volatile.
Interesting... well this bit explains the high short interest.
quote:
As we believe that Crack Spreads are going to remain higher than usual for a long period, that the current quarter alone is going to be enough to pay the acquisition and that the current Vertex price does not reflect by far the fundamentals, we opened last May a position in Vertex that we have increased last week.
Looks to agree with my prelim analysis. Q2 earnings released tomorrow
Posted on 8/9/22 at 12:29 pm to ProbyOne
quote:
Seems like lots of upside but what am I missing?
The markets usually show us the ole “if it seems too good to be true, .. ……. .”
Posted on 8/9/22 at 2:55 pm to Hussss
Woof. what a miss here
Posted on 8/9/22 at 3:50 pm to DawgCountry
quote:
Woof. what a miss here
Indeed
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