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re: Signs of a cooling housing market
Posted on 5/19/22 at 2:28 pm to TigerIron
Posted on 5/19/22 at 2:28 pm to TigerIron
quote:
You can't live in a tulip, nor does literally everyone need to either rent or own a tulip, so this worn-out analogy doesn't really apply here.
the Tulip analogy is important because it's a display of human psychology of FOMO buying and then trying to justify that FOMO buying.
If you bought a 200k house for 500k---well of course you think ppl are stupid for waiting for a crash--you bought because you don't think there will be a crash. You're the smart one.
when in reality, there would be no crash if you didn't buy a 200k house for 500k
Posted on 5/19/22 at 2:48 pm to alpinetiger
quote:
Inventory isn't decreasing, it's increasing.
You're comparing existing inventory to future inventory.
It completely makes sense that starts are slowing if they see inventories going back up. Both will work to stabilize prices, not crash them.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 3:01 pm to alpinetiger
I feel like you're conflating cooling with crashing.
Nobody should be wishing for a housing crash. I think it's clear that the market is cooling, and this is coming from someone who is listing his house next week. We aren't moving into our new construction until August or so, but I'm going to try to take advantage of the high market while I still can.
I also think it's important to remember that real estate has to be considered on a super micro level and that markets are really localized. Our market has definitely seen an uptick in inventory over the last few weeks, but I'm now seeing homes staying on the market for a week or two as opposed to 2 days. People have gotten super used to 100 offers in a day and homes selling within 24 hours of list. That isn't sustainable. Sitting on the market for 2-3 weeks is still a lot faster than "normal." Most economists' theories that I've read have suggested a plateau or slight pullback as opposed to a crash, which is probably healthy.
Nobody should be wishing for a housing crash. I think it's clear that the market is cooling, and this is coming from someone who is listing his house next week. We aren't moving into our new construction until August or so, but I'm going to try to take advantage of the high market while I still can.
I also think it's important to remember that real estate has to be considered on a super micro level and that markets are really localized. Our market has definitely seen an uptick in inventory over the last few weeks, but I'm now seeing homes staying on the market for a week or two as opposed to 2 days. People have gotten super used to 100 offers in a day and homes selling within 24 hours of list. That isn't sustainable. Sitting on the market for 2-3 weeks is still a lot faster than "normal." Most economists' theories that I've read have suggested a plateau or slight pullback as opposed to a crash, which is probably healthy.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 3:11 pm to The_Duke
quote:
and just cause "it's not like 2008" doesn't mean a crash cant happen. There wasn't 2008 until 2008 happened.
I don't think 2008 will happen again re: the RE market
I think a "2008" could happen again due to ALL the shite going on. Decade of printing/selling our future for avoiding deflation/recession short term, free trade and movement of production to developing nations, RE contraction, consumer credit, federal debt repayment with increasing rates, stagflation, the pandemic, Russia's bullshite, etc.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 3:48 pm to seawolf06
quote:
Lower inventory means prices will remain high or continue to climb. There is no crash coming.
Not if their aren't buyers. Interest rates have slowed buy significantly
Posted on 5/19/22 at 3:52 pm to sawtooth
They will never blame the manipulation of the market of institutional investors...
Posted on 5/19/22 at 5:20 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
quote:
I am as well. Been casually looking for a while now, and there just isn't anything around worth trying to go for. A correction would be very nice for me.
Same here. The market is still red hot here as my region is usually on the back end of most trends it seems. I've resigned to the notion that late winter will probably be the best shot for us to jump back in.
Posted on 5/19/22 at 6:56 pm to sawtooth
quote:
Will defaults on loans be next inline?
Continued strong consumer spending suggests "no" to me. Keep an eye on consumer behavior / spending.
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