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re: Official CryptoTalk Thread
Posted on 2/18/25 at 3:47 pm to Hateradedrink
Posted on 2/18/25 at 3:47 pm to Hateradedrink
I figure It will either retest or snap back violently when/if it decides it’s not getting a real retest.
0
Posted on 2/18/25 at 6:00 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
I guess people want/expect a retest of 80k but btc has been very resilient and corrections just haven’t been that deep
Thanks to y'all for the convo. I'm new to BTC so trying to understand how things work. Other than being told it's "volitale"
trying to understand the known madness. Though typically BTC was a safe haven (outsider looking in). So definitely trying to understand with Trump's moves how it will react.
With that said, what's the 80k retest mark about? Why 80k? Is there a typical percentage retest drop that has been historically seen? TIA
Posted on 2/18/25 at 6:06 pm to HagaDaga
We went right from 77k to 88k post election. There’s a tendency to fill gaps like that at some point in time which to me would indicate 77k as support if there were a sell off. I’m not a technical analysis guy so I’m not sure how they come up with specific numbers in the 80s as support. But I think that’s the basis for the comments you’re seeing.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 6:16 pm to beaverfever
quote:
We went right from 77k to 88k post election. There’s a tendency to fill gaps like that at some point in time which to me would indicate 77k as support if there were a sell off. I’m not a technical analysis guy so I’m not sure how they come up with specific numbers in the 80s as support. But I think that’s the basis for the comments you’re seeing.
Interesting. Thanks for that info.
Posted on 2/18/25 at 7:34 pm to beaverfever
Pretty much.
A lot of TA is voodoo, but some is good with context.
There is a tendency to “look for floors” and take liquidity on the down side. When the entire market is in profit, it’s basically a stand-off until people crack.
TA that incorporates the tendency to “look for floors”, as well as the psychological impacts around various degrees of profit, is the most useful.
For example, at a new ATH there is not a single address in the red. People in profit are more likely to sell than people at a loss (generally speaking). So, that’s why you see commentary about dips and correction being good. You need some people to take profit and rebalance the books, so to speak.
A lot of TA is voodoo, but some is good with context.
There is a tendency to “look for floors” and take liquidity on the down side. When the entire market is in profit, it’s basically a stand-off until people crack.
TA that incorporates the tendency to “look for floors”, as well as the psychological impacts around various degrees of profit, is the most useful.
For example, at a new ATH there is not a single address in the red. People in profit are more likely to sell than people at a loss (generally speaking). So, that’s why you see commentary about dips and correction being good. You need some people to take profit and rebalance the books, so to speak.
Posted on 2/19/25 at 7:06 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:
It’s just so hard to read this market.
BTC doesn’t like staying below 95k but doesn’t like staying above 97k.
I've noticed that as well. Decent volatility in this trading range although I would prefer bigger swings if Bitcoin is going to hover around$96K or so.
Who else made money trading this last dip & recovery? I bought BITX yesterday and sold it today and made right at 5% on the trade. Just curious if anyone else is volatility trading like I do?
I need Bitcoin to get above $97K to close another trade, but if Bitcoin wants to drop to $94K or lower I'll be happy to open another trade.
I really think Bitcoin will break to the upside soon and escape this two months of mostly sideways price action. I'll be able to close out my three open BITX trades and hope for more volatility at a higher price point.
Posted on 2/19/25 at 7:38 pm to 98eagle
I’m a little worried. I think it’s taken so long that the longer this goes on, the more likely a break towards the downside becomes.
Conversely, the fact I’m “worried” means true fear may be returning to the market, which means we may be nearing a floor.
Conversely, the fact I’m “worried” means true fear may be returning to the market, which means we may be nearing a floor.
Posted on 2/19/25 at 8:19 pm to Hateradedrink
Bitcoin is just doing what it usually does. It has historically had frequent long spells of sideways and downward trending price action followed by bursts to the upside and long spells of growth.
I'm not worried because I've been in it since 2016. If we got a pullback to $75K or something significant like that, I just know not to sell. I learned long ago, I only need to be patient with Bitcoin. It will continue to appreciate significantly. I'm still wondering if we will still have 4 year cycles. Maybe we do, but I think significant pullbacks will be muted percentage wise compared to the past. There is just too much demand building up in my opinion.
I'm not worried because I've been in it since 2016. If we got a pullback to $75K or something significant like that, I just know not to sell. I learned long ago, I only need to be patient with Bitcoin. It will continue to appreciate significantly. I'm still wondering if we will still have 4 year cycles. Maybe we do, but I think significant pullbacks will be muted percentage wise compared to the past. There is just too much demand building up in my opinion.
Posted on 2/20/25 at 8:27 am to 98eagle
I agree with your overall sentiment.
I’m hoping the price action today leads to sustained breakouts. Another rejection from 98k would be a gut punch.
I’m hoping the price action today leads to sustained breakouts. Another rejection from 98k would be a gut punch.
Posted on 2/20/25 at 11:58 am to Hateradedrink
Yeah, I want Bitcoin to breakout strongly to the upside.
It is overdue.
However, I just reversed another Bitcoin volatility trade making about 5.7% selling BITX. Now I only have two open BITX trades, at significant unrealized losses that I can't reverse until Bitcoin gets to approximately $110K.
Bitcoin volatility trading has really good psychological benefits for handling prolonged sideways and down trends in Bitcoin price action. When yet "another" pullback can be a gut punch, to me it's just another opportunity to make more money before Bitcoin finally decides to move upward in a big way or prolonged gains.
I make more money with my trading cash than I do holding any stock or ETF. I just use it in 5% to 10% increments buying BITX on any perceived Bitcoin pullbacks between $500 and $2000, and then sell the BITX on the recovery. If I have more time, I will trade on smaller pullbacks/recoveries.
It's risky, but I guess I know what I am doing and when things go wrong, I patiently wait for days, weeks, or in my current situation 2 months and going on two of my trades. I started out small and got the hang of it, tweaked my strategy and just trade like a robot. I still miss opportunities but don't sweat it
It is overdue.
However, I just reversed another Bitcoin volatility trade making about 5.7% selling BITX. Now I only have two open BITX trades, at significant unrealized losses that I can't reverse until Bitcoin gets to approximately $110K.
Bitcoin volatility trading has really good psychological benefits for handling prolonged sideways and down trends in Bitcoin price action. When yet "another" pullback can be a gut punch, to me it's just another opportunity to make more money before Bitcoin finally decides to move upward in a big way or prolonged gains.
I make more money with my trading cash than I do holding any stock or ETF. I just use it in 5% to 10% increments buying BITX on any perceived Bitcoin pullbacks between $500 and $2000, and then sell the BITX on the recovery. If I have more time, I will trade on smaller pullbacks/recoveries.
It's risky, but I guess I know what I am doing and when things go wrong, I patiently wait for days, weeks, or in my current situation 2 months and going on two of my trades. I started out small and got the hang of it, tweaked my strategy and just trade like a robot. I still miss opportunities but don't sweat it
Posted on 2/20/25 at 12:01 pm to 98eagle
Y'all motherfrickers trading BTC like this are what's keeping it ranged Stop, let it break out dammit.
Stop, let it break out dammit. Posted on 2/20/25 at 12:11 pm to BottomlandBrew
quote:
Y'all motherfrickers trading BTC like this are what's keeping it ranged Stop, let it break out dammit.
Made me laugh! Good one. Just note that I am not shorting Bitcoin in any way. My trading is neutral. I go long BITX and then sell my position as soon as I make around 5% or more. I do that as many times as I can.
Posted on 2/20/25 at 1:12 pm to BottomlandBrew
Volume creeping up while btc maintains >98k. Fingers crossed.
Posted on 2/21/25 at 8:23 am to Hateradedrink
Would be huge if we could close a 4h candle above 99k
Posted on 2/21/25 at 9:40 am to Hateradedrink
And back down we go.
These ranges are so annoying. One positive is that the longer we range here, the stronger the floor gets.
I'm still confident we will get to $150,000 + this year. Ideally the catalyst is some changes in how Bitcoin is taxed and/or banks start to custody and make loans against it.
These ranges are so annoying. One positive is that the longer we range here, the stronger the floor gets.
I'm still confident we will get to $150,000 + this year. Ideally the catalyst is some changes in how Bitcoin is taxed and/or banks start to custody and make loans against it.
Posted on 2/21/25 at 10:52 am to I Love Bama
The volatility inside this tight range is pretty impressive.
I think the market is being manipulated somehow. It looks like the prices are being artificially suppressed but I don’t know how.
I think the market is being manipulated somehow. It looks like the prices are being artificially suppressed but I don’t know how.
Posted on 2/21/25 at 11:51 am to Hateradedrink
Bybit being hacked for a billion plus may have spooked the market.
Posted on 2/21/25 at 12:10 pm to Hateradedrink
quote:. Seems that way since BTC seems to trade mostly sideways for long stretches. Like you mentioned in a prior post, Bitcoin was wanting to trade mostly in a range between $95K and $97K.
I think the market is being manipulated somehow.
I read maybe a year ago that some large traders will put up significant sell orders above the price of current sell orders to create a very large sell wall to manipulate the price down, but then they cancel their sell orders before they can be executed. If I recall, they would do this repeatedly to drive the price down before buying at a lower price. I don't know if that would work, but if it does, if that is occurring, that should be illegal.
EDIT: See this article.....
Cryptocurrency Spoofing: How It Works, Protecting Yourself
This post was edited on 2/21/25 at 12:21 pm
Posted on 2/21/25 at 12:16 pm to 98eagle
This happens often with low-liquidity/volume coins.
It should be difficult to do with BTC, but here we are.
It should be difficult to do with BTC, but here we are.
Posted on 2/21/25 at 12:45 pm to I Love Bama
quote:
These ranges are so annoying. One positive is that the longer we range here, the stronger the floor gets.
Agree. I wonder if Bitcoin bounced because it basically rose from $93K to over $99K, and it is having to break through the psychological $100K milestone again. If so, it might test $100K a few times before breaking through again. You never know with Bitcoin. I still am more optimistic than you that Bitcoin will go to $150K this year. I still believe it is is going way higher than $150K.
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