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Posted on 10/15/24 at 10:22 am to LordSaintly
Should I tell him what I made on BTC options this morning?
Bigger question, for the technical guys, are we back in the cup and handle?
Looking for short term action. Long term stuff is handled very well, notwithstanding the waves of the ocean.
Bigger question, for the technical guys, are we back in the cup and handle?
Looking for short term action. Long term stuff is handled very well, notwithstanding the waves of the ocean.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 10:27 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
for the technical guys, are we back in the cup and handle?
Absolutely. That was a nasty fakeout.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 10:36 am to LordSaintly
It's building again, buy order outnumbering sell orders between $65K and $67K. Maybe leveling off. Hard for me to tell, and I can post the graphic.
What do you use for market depth / order book data?
What do you use for market depth / order book data?
Posted on 10/15/24 at 1:41 pm to Iowa Golfer
Bouncing off of the first resistance point again.
Posted on 10/15/24 at 7:19 pm to Iowa Golfer
In my opinion the breakout is holding but will be nice to see how the week closes. That would be confirmation
Posted on 10/15/24 at 9:42 pm to thatguy777
I’m not big into TA but the breakout looks plainly visible on the chart at this point. We had gone three straight months with nasty sell offs in the first week of the month. September’s low wasn’t quite as low as August’s low though after the Yen carry trade sell off. Then, October’s first week sell off was even weaker.
Again, not technical analysis but I think sometimes it’s as simple as opening your eyes and looking. The timing corresponds exactly with the publicly accepted truth that you stop selling about 5-6 months after a halving unless you hate making money.
Again, not technical analysis but I think sometimes it’s as simple as opening your eyes and looking. The timing corresponds exactly with the publicly accepted truth that you stop selling about 5-6 months after a halving unless you hate making money.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 6:42 am to beaverfever
I'm trying not to get excited about this recent run-up because we have been stuck in this range for so long but all factors are showing it's time to go higher.
1. LINK Central Banks world wide have started to turn the faucet back on.
2. Bull run starts 6-12 months post halving (based on prior cycles) We are a few days away from the 6 month mark.
3. The Bitcoin mining revenues are too low to operate and they are having to sell off their Bitcoin.
After each halving cycle, miners face pressure as the Bitcoin block reward is cut in half while the market has not yet adjusted to the new supply dynamics. This forces many miners to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operational costs, as the immediate income from mining is reduced.
As the cycle progresses, less efficient miners are forced to exit the market, leaving the remaining miners to capture a larger share of the rewards. With fewer miners competing, those that remain start to see their revenues increase, reducing their need to sell Bitcoin. This period typically marks the formation of a new price floor.
Once the remaining miners stabilize and begin accumulating their earnings again, the true effects of the reduced supply take hold. As the market adjusts to the lower Bitcoin issuance, prices tend to rise rapidly, driven by the realization of a tighter supply-demand balance.
The first point is by far the most important while points 2 & 3 are highly correlated. Now, Bitcoin is going to do what Bitcoin wants and we could very well be trading at $50,000 in 2 months but the pressures mentioned above will eventually take over. If you are looking to maximize dollar gains in the next year and don't mind a little risk, the Miners could be a good play here.
Myself, I really am already overexposed to Bitcoin. I might buy one more full coin at these prices but I will be diversifying more into international real estate and the S&P 500 going forward.
1. LINK Central Banks world wide have started to turn the faucet back on.
2. Bull run starts 6-12 months post halving (based on prior cycles) We are a few days away from the 6 month mark.
3. The Bitcoin mining revenues are too low to operate and they are having to sell off their Bitcoin.
After each halving cycle, miners face pressure as the Bitcoin block reward is cut in half while the market has not yet adjusted to the new supply dynamics. This forces many miners to sell their Bitcoin holdings to cover operational costs, as the immediate income from mining is reduced.
As the cycle progresses, less efficient miners are forced to exit the market, leaving the remaining miners to capture a larger share of the rewards. With fewer miners competing, those that remain start to see their revenues increase, reducing their need to sell Bitcoin. This period typically marks the formation of a new price floor.
Once the remaining miners stabilize and begin accumulating their earnings again, the true effects of the reduced supply take hold. As the market adjusts to the lower Bitcoin issuance, prices tend to rise rapidly, driven by the realization of a tighter supply-demand balance.
The first point is by far the most important while points 2 & 3 are highly correlated. Now, Bitcoin is going to do what Bitcoin wants and we could very well be trading at $50,000 in 2 months but the pressures mentioned above will eventually take over. If you are looking to maximize dollar gains in the next year and don't mind a little risk, the Miners could be a good play here.
Myself, I really am already overexposed to Bitcoin. I might buy one more full coin at these prices but I will be diversifying more into international real estate and the S&P 500 going forward.
This post was edited on 10/16/24 at 6:44 am
Posted on 10/16/24 at 8:05 am to I Love Bama
quote:This is my general position although we could have different definitions of overexposed, Sometimes I worry I’m actually overexposed to the US stock market and I’ve just accepted that because it’s worked for so long.
Myself, I really am already overexposed to Bitcoin. I might buy one more full coin at these prices but I will be diversifying more into international real estate and the S&P 500 going forward.
I dabbled in bitcoin until the etf approval and I’ve just leaned harder into it since then. I wish I had cared enough to dive deeper years ago but whatever. Bitcoin had a fundamental impediment to mass adoption that BlackRock and Fidelity solved. It’s just a matter of time at this point. The inflows aren’t slowing down.
Posted on 10/16/24 at 11:57 am to I Love Bama
quote:
I might buy one more full coin at these prices
sigh
Celcius got me. All my hopes and dreams are on Fideum now
Posted on 10/18/24 at 9:34 am to RATeamWannabe
TA guys, is this a breakout or are we still holding tight? Genuinely curious not being a smart arse.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 11:16 am to beaverfever
I'm not a TA guy. This is what I go by for my shorter term volatility trades. This doesn't apply to my buy and hold positions.
Pivot Point 3rd Level Resistance 68,867.87
Pivot Point 2nd Level Resistance 68,391.34
Pivot Point 1st Resistance Point 67,665.95
Pivot Point 1st Support Point 66,464.04
Pivot Point 2nd Support Point 65,987.52
Pivot Point 3rd Support Point 65,262.13
Then I look at market depth / order book for futures and the heat map. That's the best I can do to try to determine market depth. I suspect some others on here have a clearer picture of actual BTC buys and sell orders. At least the orders that aren't disguised/hidden.
All of this changes very quickly. I think what you're looking for are the guys on here that can read charts of cup and handle, etc.
FWIW, based on the above I'm holding my bull position on my short term volatility trade. It's up 19.56% from my entry point which was probably a bit early. I'm being a bit greedy here, but I have a large underlying position and this is just some small trading around that position. I took an entry position of $75K BITX, so slightly over 1 BTC.
To be clear, I'm following the one posters volatility trade, and the other posters insight on TA. I continue to add to BTC long term. I've never sold any of my BTC, and I owns some BTC under $1K. I'm a long term BTC believer, I'm just doing some short term trades to generates some income. My BTC unrealized gains are partially hedged with BTC puts, which are expensive, but worth it to me given the size of unrealized gains I currently have.
BTC has absolutely added to my retirement plan, and my TC knowledge pales in comparison to others that post on here. I'm pretty grateful to some of the posters on here.
Pivot Point 3rd Level Resistance 68,867.87
Pivot Point 2nd Level Resistance 68,391.34
Pivot Point 1st Resistance Point 67,665.95
Pivot Point 1st Support Point 66,464.04
Pivot Point 2nd Support Point 65,987.52
Pivot Point 3rd Support Point 65,262.13
Then I look at market depth / order book for futures and the heat map. That's the best I can do to try to determine market depth. I suspect some others on here have a clearer picture of actual BTC buys and sell orders. At least the orders that aren't disguised/hidden.
All of this changes very quickly. I think what you're looking for are the guys on here that can read charts of cup and handle, etc.
FWIW, based on the above I'm holding my bull position on my short term volatility trade. It's up 19.56% from my entry point which was probably a bit early. I'm being a bit greedy here, but I have a large underlying position and this is just some small trading around that position. I took an entry position of $75K BITX, so slightly over 1 BTC.
To be clear, I'm following the one posters volatility trade, and the other posters insight on TA. I continue to add to BTC long term. I've never sold any of my BTC, and I owns some BTC under $1K. I'm a long term BTC believer, I'm just doing some short term trades to generates some income. My BTC unrealized gains are partially hedged with BTC puts, which are expensive, but worth it to me given the size of unrealized gains I currently have.
BTC has absolutely added to my retirement plan, and my TC knowledge pales in comparison to others that post on here. I'm pretty grateful to some of the posters on here.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 11:27 am to beaverfever
not necessarily the answer youre looking for but I think we see a Doge or XRP type coin that has a ridiculous run up that signals the next up only event
until then, I think we range
until then, I think we range
Posted on 10/18/24 at 11:31 am to Iowa Golfer
I see you are trading volatility on approximately $500 pullbacks and recoveries. You'll open and close a lot more trades and make a lot more money that way. That's what I plan to do as well, i.e. keep lowering my trigger and recovery points to catch smaller amplitude price swings.
Switch your accounts over to margin accounts or hold enough settled cash in them and you can basically day trade, opening and closing multiple trades during the day on $500 price swings or less.
Switch your accounts over to margin accounts or hold enough settled cash in them and you can basically day trade, opening and closing multiple trades during the day on $500 price swings or less.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 11:50 am to 98eagle
Yeah, I haven't hardly left my house the last couple of days. It's too much work frankly, and I keep trying to find an easier way, whether that be options, or triggered trades. I'm a PDT and have a margin account.
But the last entry point I haven't closed my BITX on, I'm letting it run for now. Which is something I never do given it's leveraged and needs to roll future's contracts.
Part of the difficulty is BTC trades 24/7, and BITX trades until 8PM, unless I can get on a dark pool and try to trade it overnight, but so far I haven't been able to find BITX on an accessible dark pool.
I've been attempting to locate a crypto exchange where I can fund it with BTC, and use that to trade options around it. They exist, but the option's liquidity isn't the best. As I mentioned, it is incredibly expensive to hedge my unrealized gains with BTC protective puts. I do this becuase I don't want to wake up and find out BTC got whacked due to some governmental intervention.
Years ago on here I rode up Erin Energy. Got accused of being part of a pump and dump actually, which is why I rarely post these days. I took some gains, and rode the rest of my unrealized gain down to zero. That was partially caused by pirates of all things, and partially caused by a foreign government. I have no intention of having the government take away my BTC unrealized gains. My protective puts have counter party liability guaranteed by the exchange, so in a worst case scenario I have profit locked and guaranteed.
It's an uneasy relationship. I don't trust the government. Crypto, or portions of crypto are decentralized. And yet in order to guaranty profits I use exchanges that are approved by the CFTC. Important to me at all times, but especially now pre-election.
When USGOV approved BTC contract, essentially guarantying payment, I saw that as a good things, where others are 100% opposed and want 100% decentralized and no government involvement at all.
Anyway, like I mentioned, my understanding of crypto pales in comparison to other posters, so I tend to be ultra conservative.
But the last entry point I haven't closed my BITX on, I'm letting it run for now. Which is something I never do given it's leveraged and needs to roll future's contracts.
Part of the difficulty is BTC trades 24/7, and BITX trades until 8PM, unless I can get on a dark pool and try to trade it overnight, but so far I haven't been able to find BITX on an accessible dark pool.
I've been attempting to locate a crypto exchange where I can fund it with BTC, and use that to trade options around it. They exist, but the option's liquidity isn't the best. As I mentioned, it is incredibly expensive to hedge my unrealized gains with BTC protective puts. I do this becuase I don't want to wake up and find out BTC got whacked due to some governmental intervention.
Years ago on here I rode up Erin Energy. Got accused of being part of a pump and dump actually, which is why I rarely post these days. I took some gains, and rode the rest of my unrealized gain down to zero. That was partially caused by pirates of all things, and partially caused by a foreign government. I have no intention of having the government take away my BTC unrealized gains. My protective puts have counter party liability guaranteed by the exchange, so in a worst case scenario I have profit locked and guaranteed.
It's an uneasy relationship. I don't trust the government. Crypto, or portions of crypto are decentralized. And yet in order to guaranty profits I use exchanges that are approved by the CFTC. Important to me at all times, but especially now pre-election.
When USGOV approved BTC contract, essentially guarantying payment, I saw that as a good things, where others are 100% opposed and want 100% decentralized and no government involvement at all.
Anyway, like I mentioned, my understanding of crypto pales in comparison to other posters, so I tend to be ultra conservative.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:02 pm to Iowa Golfer
What is your process for analyzing options on BTC? You can be as detailed or as vague as you want, I’d prefer detail though lol
Posted on 10/18/24 at 12:13 pm to RATeamWannabe
You can feel the liquidity pouring into assets. I don’t know how long the sellers can hold up. It’s just a terrible environment to be short assets.
Posted on 10/18/24 at 1:30 pm to kung fu kenny
I figure out the break even point, and try to buy as much time as possible. I'd really need to know what you are thinking about doing and I can show you how I ball park break even underlying price and time premium.
About the only way to go long are weeklies or no more than one month out. I used LedgerX, but that's dried up. About one a week I search for crypto exchanges that offer options on cryptos. A lot of that is illegal in the US now. I want the CFTC approved. The best example is I have protective puts at $55K on BTC. If the government comes in and makes BTC illegal, I want the put guaranteed.
It's very difficult as crypto options are priced pretty high.
There is no analysis on my protective puts, I view this as insurance premiums that insure my gains. I pay what I have to pay.
There is one poster in this thread who is extremely knowledgeable on Greeks, time premium, etc. I've never gone to that amount of detail. I wish I was that smart, especially right now becuase in the present climate if you were buying and trading call options, you'd be crushing it.
About the only way to go long are weeklies or no more than one month out. I used LedgerX, but that's dried up. About one a week I search for crypto exchanges that offer options on cryptos. A lot of that is illegal in the US now. I want the CFTC approved. The best example is I have protective puts at $55K on BTC. If the government comes in and makes BTC illegal, I want the put guaranteed.
It's very difficult as crypto options are priced pretty high.
There is no analysis on my protective puts, I view this as insurance premiums that insure my gains. I pay what I have to pay.
There is one poster in this thread who is extremely knowledgeable on Greeks, time premium, etc. I've never gone to that amount of detail. I wish I was that smart, especially right now becuase in the present climate if you were buying and trading call options, you'd be crushing it.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:25 pm to Iowa Golfer
Flirting around $70K. I sold my long BITX after hours, and will buy in again if we get a 5% price drop. Looked at BITX options a bit for the volatility trade, but haven't figured that out yet.
If BTC drops, I'm good. If it keeps going up, I'm good.
I suspect, don't know, the election (at least the way it looks currently) is a bull catalyst.
If BTC drops, I'm good. If it keeps going up, I'm good.
I suspect, don't know, the election (at least the way it looks currently) is a bull catalyst.
Posted on 10/28/24 at 5:31 pm to Iowa Golfer
where is the 70k gamma squeeze I was promised!
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