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2
Posted on 8/23/23 at 5:05 pm to Double Oh
I have wanted to buy SPY puts and I held off thinking of exactly this.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 6:04 pm to slackster
quote:
TSMC guidance is not necessarily correlated with NVDA sales revenue.
TSMC makes the chips and has capacity issues. If they say they can't ramp production their guidance certainly matters.
According to Nvidia's earnings call revenue is up because they raised prices. They actually missed on guidance for actual chip deliveries due to supply constraints.
There isn't unlimited demand for the AI chips and they were evasive on the call concerning future orders.
Don't take this as the typical "It's earnings are equal to a $10 stock!" as that's not what I am saying. What I am saying is demand for their AI chips is not unlimited in the future and will likely slow. And the current stock pricing is years into the future.
Also, years in the future they will not be the only game in town for AI chips and those margins will come down.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 7:27 pm to Covingtontiger77
Just a reminder that Cathie Wood sold her stockpile of NVDA for $137/share at a loss because it was “too expensive”. Then she loaded up on Zoom and every other shitty tech/fintech stock imaginable.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 7:32 pm to beaverfever
i bought SMCI instead, not disappointed.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:31 pm to beaverfever
quote:
Just a reminder that Cathie Wood sold her stockpile of NVDA for $137/share at a loss because it was “too expensive”. Then she loaded up on Zoom and every other shitty tech/fintech stock imaginable.
Had it not been for TSLA this lady would be a nobody.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 8:47 pm to BuckyCheese
This dude gets it. Most questions about demand outlook were met with “but theres a trillion dollars of servers out there to be upgraded!” Lmao yeah no shite but that doesn’t mean 1T in chips, maybe $200B at most in the face of economic slowdown and supply constraints. I’m long NVDA puts and SOXS calls.
Posted on 8/23/23 at 9:08 pm to BourbonDad
quote:
I’m long NVDA puts
your funeral. Posted on 8/24/23 at 1:43 pm to slackster
Feels like a house party right now. Been long SOXS SQQQ shares and calls, long VIXY call, long TSLA WMT NVDA SPY puts before yesterday.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 3:59 pm to BourbonDad
quote:That’s a very specific play. Do you mind sharing your thesis?
long WMT puts.
This post was edited on 8/24/23 at 4:00 pm
Posted on 8/24/23 at 4:07 pm to Double Oh
Lurker that keeps on eye on MT…did I miss out here? How high will this thing go…5 yr time frame?
Posted on 8/24/23 at 4:15 pm to beaverfever
It was an earnings play. Figured we would see weakening margins through higher input costs and lower demand. They did ok, but it’s also been relatively immune to rest of the market and at some point as the COR3M starts waking up and index:equity correlations come back to norms, even WMT will have a tumble. I’ve got about $50k in options at play right now, WMT is tiny %. Majority is SOXS SQQQ NVDA TSLA SPY
Posted on 8/24/23 at 4:16 pm to BourbonDad
Need to fix the above, about $30 is direct shares of SOXS SQQQ the rest is in options. I’m also able to do this for a living and have professional tools and resources at my disposal.
This post was edited on 8/24/23 at 4:18 pm
Posted on 8/24/23 at 5:26 pm to BourbonDad
Been in SQQQ for a while and added FNGD with a bit of NVDS.
If NVDA couldn't go up with it's earnings, gave every last bit back today, I'm thinking we're on a downside slide for a while.
I don't do a lot of options but had a nice short term hit on UVXY. Will probably play that some more with a farther out DTE. Went back in on TSLA 225 puts with Dec expirations after making over 100% on the last set before it bumped back up.
eta-I need some tools so I can have a better idea when to switch between SQQQ and TQQQ.
If NVDA couldn't go up with it's earnings, gave every last bit back today, I'm thinking we're on a downside slide for a while.
I don't do a lot of options but had a nice short term hit on UVXY. Will probably play that some more with a farther out DTE. Went back in on TSLA 225 puts with Dec expirations after making over 100% on the last set before it bumped back up.
eta-I need some tools so I can have a better idea when to switch between SQQQ and TQQQ.
This post was edited on 8/24/23 at 5:40 pm
Posted on 8/24/23 at 6:56 pm to BourbonDad
quote:I don’t disagree that Walmart is currently expensive. I don’t own it. Betting on compressed margins was bold though. The big retailers have had a sweet setup the past couple of quarters with shipping costs being dirt cheap compared with last year’s comps. And like you said, WMT always seems to get a pass one way or the other.
It was an earnings play. Figured we would see weakening margins through higher input costs and lower demand.
Posted on 8/24/23 at 7:09 pm to BuckyCheese
You’ve gotta have brass balls to short NVDA right now. Whether it’s a good long term investment going forward or not, the narrative isn’t changing for at least six months, probably longer. They are printing money right now.
This post was edited on 8/24/23 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 8/25/23 at 6:36 am to beaverfever
Had a few minutes and looked at the Q2 income statement and it really is ungodly. You might get a technical correction or a huge market downturn which drags it down but if you're taking a short position specific to this company, its performance and its and prospects for the foreseeable future then you're operating on a hope and a prayer.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 10:00 am to beaverfever
quote:
You’ve gotta have brass balls to short NVDA right now.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:53 am to beaverfever
I agree I wouldn’t short this stock.
Posted on 8/25/23 at 11:57 am to kaaj24
We shall see.
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