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Started By
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Kyle Bass' China Thesis
Posted on 2/15/16 at 9:42 am
Posted on 2/15/16 at 9:42 am
Hayman's Chinesse Thesis
Anybody joining this party? I like Bass but I think the Chinese will somehow find a way to get out of this hole they have created. I've read that there central bank's assets are backed by gold so the devaluation won't materialize. What say the MB?
Anybody joining this party? I like Bass but I think the Chinese will somehow find a way to get out of this hole they have created. I've read that there central bank's assets are backed by gold so the devaluation won't materialize. What say the MB?
2
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:07 am to Bernie_Madoff
quote:Which party? That China is due a financial collapse?
Anybody joining this party?
I've been saying that ever since I worked for the IMF as an adviser to the People's Bank of China (their central bank) in Beijing back in 2002/2003.
Back then every single large Chinese commercial bank was technically insolvent when non-performing loans were properly priced on their balance sheet.
The official response from the People's Bank of China about the situation was "it's no big deal."
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:08 am to LSURussian
Pair trade as follows: Short Louisiana/Short China/Long Medical Ganja
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:29 am to LSURussian
quote:
I've been saying that ever since I worked for the IMF as an adviser to the People's Bank of China (their central bank) in Beijing back in 2002/2003.
Ya, so have a lot of people since '08 but it never materializes. Is 2016 the year? PBC will just lower rates and continue the party IMO. These tail events seem to be near impossible to time, but Bass seems to be good at it, so maybe he's right.
quote:
The official response from the People's Bank of China about the situation was "it's no big deal."
They're still saying this quote:
Pair trade as follows: Short Louisiana/Short China/Long Medical Ganja
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:31 am to Bernie_Madoff
Very interesting article....the question is "How much does it effect our economy when it does happen?"
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:36 am to WGB2004
quote:
"How much does it effect our economy when it does happen?"
Conglomerates will get killed. But overall, Yuan devaluation would make imports cheaper so I think it's not that big of a deal for average joe. I'm sure Russian would have more to say about it.
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:41 am to Bernie_Madoff
Why do our markets seem to be retract on China news?
Posted on 2/15/16 at 10:45 am to WGB2004
Our markets react when Janet Yellen farts. And yes, I'm 100% serious about that. And they react quickly to every little thing. Really quickly, which by the way is why I don't really trade any more, and haven't for a long time. At least China has some basis for a US market reaction.
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