re: Is Bitcoin’s day as an exponential grower over?

quote:

---

projecting

---

quote:

---

You know what I think might be suppressing Bitcoin's price is the fact that whales are collectively selling massive amounts of covered calls in order to make short term gains (the immediate profit of selling covered calls). They are shooting themselves and everyone else in the foot, by limiting large Bitcoin price gains, by adding massive selling pressure because so many shares have to be sold at once as Bitcoin rises above their strike price.

So the whales are automatically sellers in a massive way when Bitcoin hits their strike price, and that knocks Bitcoin back down. The whales are creating this massive selling pressure. I think this all resolves at some point as whales dilute their shares over time. I could be way off here. These are just my thoughts.

---

nah

quote:

---

I think its gonna hit 72k then explode to 150k in 2026

---

Purple monkey dishwasher!

quote:

---

nah

---

Fascinating intellectual discussion on covered calls as a possible cause of Bitcoin price suppression.

quote:

---

Every time people start talking like this is usually a good time to buy bitcoin

---

Are you familiar with the Inductivist Turkey?

For clarification, bitcoin has never followed an exponential growth curve. It has historically followed a power law curve.

Right now, a sustained period under ~$50k would represent an erosion of that relationship. It’s about 20% under the trend line right now. Anything from ~50% under the trend line to 100% above the trend line is very much par for the course. The low side of that range has always been more consistently meaningful. I think of it as the price of the network without speculation.

Below is that “support” price on December 19th over the years. Again, sustained trading under this price path has never happened.

Fun fact, this trend line was first observed in 2013 by an Italian physicist who was working for the LSU system.

2013: $39
2016: $610
2019: $3,922
2022: $16,046
2025: $49,839

Future:
2028: $128,640
2031: $290,462
2034: $593,734
2037: $1,122,253
2040: $1,992,063

quote:

---

Thats ghey but as expected by you

---

The Simpsons are gay? who knew

quote:

---

20k over its ath is absurd?

---

The specificity is absurd, regardless of where it falls on the number line.

I don’t think we are there quite yet. Maybe, hopefully, one day we will be…


Last Friday the Fed enacted QE at $40 billion/month in T-bills. Which should increase M2 in the near term putting even more pressure on the strained US dollar.
The Fed target PCE is allegedly 2% but just cut rates again by .25% and The Orange Man’s reaction is to pound his fist that it is not enough.
Orange Man made so much money in real estate, all he knows is low rates = GOOD. It’s in his DNA to want lower rates.
What kind of Fed Chair do you think will takeover in May? I’ll take a wild guess and say it is going to be a Trump Yes Man.
How about the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Executive Order earlier this year with the HODL Policy, was this an anticipatory hedge of future decisions?

How many 401Ks have actually started making adjustments so you can buy crypto/Bitcoin investments? Seems like this hasn’t even gotten to the tip of the iceberg.
You’ve got first time home buyers wagering the idea of 50 year mortgages and a US dollar they’re inevitably mad at. But hey, their parents had a 15% interest rate (and a purchase price of their million dollar home only cost them equivalent to 4 souped up golf carts in today’s dollars)
How many Gen Zers are just going to rage yolo allocate 100% of their 401ks into Bitcoin because they feel like they can’t afford anything with their US dollars?

So with all that in consideration, for now I think you're going to see a lot more people buying into bitcoin in the near term.

quote:

---

Every BTC thesis now is that the US will collapse

---

quote:

---

Nobody invests in the dollar. Dollars are used for spending

---

A monetary system that doesn’t function as savings technology WILL fail.