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Help me understand Nola housing market UPDATE
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:10 pm
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:10 pm
Fiancée and I have been looking for our first home for about a year- seriously for about 6mos. Rented for past 2.5 yrs. This is my 2nd stint in Nola - lived here 2010-2012 for grad school before moving out West for work. We would like to stay uptown in a 3/2.
Having a hard time understanding the current market as I’m sure many are. Not a ton of inventory, but a competitive market with the number of buyers in our price range which would tell you prices should be going up. They appear to be staying pretty steady, however.
I just have a hard time believing prices won’t be coming down in the next 12-24mos with covid’s effect on the local economy. Local restaurants/tourism all being depressed for the near term should have a significant effect on home prices, no?
UPDATE:
Funny how things work out - Put an offer in Friday on a house near Jefferson & Magazine significantly below list and the sellers accepted at roughly $265/sq. ft. which we believe is a steal. They’re also paying the majority of closing costs. I feel like it will be hard to lose with this location, footage and yard.
Having a hard time understanding the current market as I’m sure many are. Not a ton of inventory, but a competitive market with the number of buyers in our price range which would tell you prices should be going up. They appear to be staying pretty steady, however.
I just have a hard time believing prices won’t be coming down in the next 12-24mos with covid’s effect on the local economy. Local restaurants/tourism all being depressed for the near term should have a significant effect on home prices, no?
UPDATE:
Funny how things work out - Put an offer in Friday on a house near Jefferson & Magazine significantly below list and the sellers accepted at roughly $265/sq. ft. which we believe is a steal. They’re also paying the majority of closing costs. I feel like it will be hard to lose with this location, footage and yard.
This post was edited on 7/26/20 at 8:33 pm
11
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:13 pm to beauxkner
I agree, no way I would I be looking to buy in Nola anytime soon
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:15 pm to beauxkner
jbe just gave big money to ppl who can't pay mortgages or behind on rent. Nola housing not coming down anytime soon dude.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:22 pm to Mr Perfect
I’m reading the 24MM that JBE is employing is for rental insurance for households making less than ~25k/yr. I seriously doubt the program is helping people that own homes uptown in the 400-600k range. Did I miss something?
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:25 pm to beauxkner
you think ppl who own homes for 400k work in service industry/tourism? c'mon dude
This post was edited on 7/19/20 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 7/19/20 at 3:37 pm to Mr Perfect
No but many likely work for/own businesses that are tied to the local economy. Restaurant/bar owners, executive chefs, commercial real estate, banks that lend to local businesses, Air BnB ownership, event planning companies/venues...need I go on?
I think it’s a little short-sided to suggest that the Nola economy at large won’t be affected by the pressures of relatively zero tourism.
I think it’s a little short-sided to suggest that the Nola economy at large won’t be affected by the pressures of relatively zero tourism.
This post was edited on 7/19/20 at 3:43 pm
Posted on 7/19/20 at 4:35 pm to beauxkner
I am also currently looking to buy. I’m trying to hold on to my current lease another 4-5 months to judge what the best move is. I know commercial is done. I have friends in commercial who say business is down 80% as businesses leave and or realized they can work from home and have no need to renew. Would hate to be a restaurant in the CBD, a huge chunk of their daily profits are going to disappear with less people down there every day.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 4:56 pm to beauxkner
If anyone is in trouble they are being floated by the massive government stimulus. That or they are in forbearance with their current lender. I think Q1 next year you may start to see pricing dips, as the city deals with no more stimulus packages, and zero tourism due to latoilet prematurely cancelling all events for remainder of year.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 5:14 pm to Catchfalaya
Although the City in my opinion will see a dip, a majority of homeowners are not heavily invested in industries most effected by this. I think certain areas will suffer more. For example Mid City may see a significant drop in prices. But uptown is more old money/very wealthy and not as tied to the New Orleans economy. Who knows though. I think Metairie is a better option based upon prices for insurance and basic utilities.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 5:19 pm to JonTigerFan11
c'mon dude who want to live in metarie.. if anything all those metarie ppl might try to get into the Nola market now
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:07 pm to Mr Perfect
All I can do is laugh at your trolling or total lack of understanding.
If you want to see an example of what New Orleans will be once tourism is dead and the service industry disappears look at Jackson and Madison MS. New Orleans will be Jackson. Either Metairie or Mandeville will explode as business people flock to cheaper areas with better leadership and only have to commute 1-2 days a week or at all. The only people who stay will be those too rich to care or too poor to leave.
I think it’s bound to happen because of the new work from home era we are about to permanently enter.
If you want to see an example of what New Orleans will be once tourism is dead and the service industry disappears look at Jackson and Madison MS. New Orleans will be Jackson. Either Metairie or Mandeville will explode as business people flock to cheaper areas with better leadership and only have to commute 1-2 days a week or at all. The only people who stay will be those too rich to care or too poor to leave.
I think it’s bound to happen because of the new work from home era we are about to permanently enter.
This post was edited on 7/19/20 at 6:13 pm
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:25 pm to JonTigerFan11
lmao you think metarie will explode. lmao. truly is over for ppl like you dude.
ppl will still wanna live in Nola for the bars and the festivals and the coffee shops. you're truly old school clueless.
ppl will still wanna live in Nola for the bars and the festivals and the coffee shops. you're truly old school clueless.
This post was edited on 7/19/20 at 6:26 pm
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:28 pm to JonTigerFan11
While I personally have little desire to live in Metairie, I definitely agree the current leadership in Orleans is pitiful. Has been and likely will continue to be. Desirable areas within Jefferson/St. Tammany have been benefiting from the flight from taxes, utilities, leadership, etc. for some time, however, so this is not a new phenomenon. Yet, housing prices uptown and other desirable areas within Orleans have continued to go up the elevator as well.
I guess the real answer to my original question is, nobody knows. I figured some of the savvy investors in here might have had some perspective that I’m not seeing.
I guess the real answer to my original question is, nobody knows. I figured some of the savvy investors in here might have had some perspective that I’m not seeing.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:32 pm to Mr Perfect
Interesting you deal in absolutes. I don’t think anything is “over” it’s really just speculation. If I buy a house and I’m wrong then I’ll either sell it in a few years to another young person speculating or I’ll lease it and have a rental property.
If I’m right then my home value will increase and I’ll still do the exact same thing.
Or I could buy a home uptown, pay taxes for Orleans Parish, deal with Latoya type leadership and crime, and have my home value plummet potentially and then not be able to rent because the people that live uptown and lease, mostly students or service industry people, will be gone.
It’s interesting also because if schools are online then college students won’t be renting by Tulane, so value up there may plummet. However, the dental school requires hands on education. Therefore Metairie/Lakeview will still have value as potential investment property to some extent.
If I’m right then my home value will increase and I’ll still do the exact same thing.
Or I could buy a home uptown, pay taxes for Orleans Parish, deal with Latoya type leadership and crime, and have my home value plummet potentially and then not be able to rent because the people that live uptown and lease, mostly students or service industry people, will be gone.
It’s interesting also because if schools are online then college students won’t be renting by Tulane, so value up there may plummet. However, the dental school requires hands on education. Therefore Metairie/Lakeview will still have value as potential investment property to some extent.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:38 pm to beauxkner
I also have no desire to live in Lakeview. Ideally I’d like to buy a double in Mid-City/Uptown/Lakeview. But I am concerned about renting in certain areas because of the service industry/students as primary renters.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:46 pm to JonTigerFan11
Biggest worry with Mid-City is flooding. Seems it always floods during any regular rainstorm. Every decent part of NOLA has some negative aspect to give you pause before buying: Uptown (expensive older homes in need of updating), Warehouse District (wayyy overpriced), Mid-City/Broadmoor (flooding), Lakeview (crater-sized potholes), Marigny/Bywater (Marxists), Algiers Point (surrounded by shite), etc. Also, never know when you'll get a 4-figure water bill or boil advisory courtesy of the SWB.
This post was edited on 7/19/20 at 8:38 pm
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:55 pm to yaboidarrell
Completely agree. It’s a tricky market. Add in the collapse of our economy and idiot leadership and it makes it worse.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 6:58 pm to JonTigerFan11
quote:
Therefore Metairie/Lakeview will still have value as potential investment property to some extent.
please stop.
I'm begging you
Posted on 7/19/20 at 7:07 pm to Mr Perfect
Care to provide your insight? I’d actually like to know and hear another opinion opposite of myself.
Posted on 7/19/20 at 7:20 pm to beauxkner
NOLA going to get destroyed in terms of housing market.
All those Air BNBs many are bought with credit. Ppl are losing their asses.
In addition taxes are gonna skyrocket. Prepare thy anus.
All those Air BNBs many are bought with credit. Ppl are losing their asses.
In addition taxes are gonna skyrocket. Prepare thy anus.
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