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re: Gold (took a small short position today on 5/25)

Posted on 4/10/11 at 7:05 am to
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8085 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 7:05 am to
A combination of two things would cause a pullback IMO. The first is the end of Q2. The second (and more significant IMO) is that July to September is very bearish from a seasonal standpoint for PM's.
Posted by RasinCane
Member since Mar 2011
147 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 3:02 pm to
Bill Gross must be reading our posts. Cash in May and go away. From ZH

"Exclusive: Bill Gross Is Now Short US Debt, Hikes Cash To $73 Billion, An All Time Record"
" In March, Pimco's flagship Total Return Fund (TRF) has now taken an active short position in US government debt: -3% on a Market Value basis (or $7.1 billion), and a whopping -18% on a Duration Weighted Exposure basis. And confirming just what PIMCO thinks of US-related paper is the fact that the world's largest "bond" fund now has cash, at a stunning $73 billion, or 31% of all assets, as its largest asset class on both a relative and absolute basis. We repeat: cash is more than PIMCO's holdings of Treasurys and Mortgage securities ($66 billion) combined. To paraphrase: in March PIMCO was dumping everything related to US rates (see chart below)."
LINK


Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 3:35 pm to
quote:

Cash in May and go away.
Except the old saying is "Sell in May and go away" not "Cash in May..."

And the selling is referring to stocks, not bonds.

Once again, you heard a buzz word phrase and incorrectly applied it.
Posted by RasinCane
Member since Mar 2011
147 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 4:49 pm to
Thanks for setting me straight you are sooooo smart remind me of a sack of hammers I once knew when is fosizzle going to answer the question
dufus if you are in equities when the Fed stops QE you're gonna get taken to the cleaners Hence, sell in May and go away duh da ya get it
Hey foshizle, answer the question or are you scared to?
This post was edited on 4/10/11 at 4:57 pm
Posted by RasinCane
Member since Mar 2011
147 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 5:01 pm to
US consumers are not driving the PM prices look at the macro picture and it becomes clear who is
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26709 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 8:11 pm to
quote:

dufus if you are in equities when the Fed stops QE you're gonna get taken to the cleaners


I'm pretty sure Russian has stated he is all in cash right now.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 8:17 pm to
quote:

I'm pretty sure Russian has stated he is all in cash right now.
70% now. The other 30% (if I sold) I'd have to write too big of a quarterly estimated tax check to the IRS and I just refuse to do that......
Posted by RasinCane
Member since Mar 2011
147 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:17 pm to
Oooo Oooo brag brag posture posture lol paying the IRS is part of doing biz dofus better to pay them than lose 30% of your portfolio
I like the way your choir rushes to your defense you have trained them well
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:24 pm to
Is your period key broken? If not, use it!
Posted by RasinCane
Member since Mar 2011
147 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:28 pm to
Why don't you copy, edit, and repost my posts? I need a secretary lol
try sticking to the thread topic something you have seldom done in the past and stop worrying about grammar/punctuation
help call the choir call the choir it's a little girl and I'm scared help
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:34 pm to
quote:

something you have seldom done in the past
How do you know what I've done in the past since you just joined this website.

Of course, it would be explainable if you're an alter for someone who has been posting on here and got banned, right, Rivers?
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8085 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:35 pm to
Gentlemen, keep it civil please, and keep it to precious metal talk. Russian, you have a precious metal opinion?
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:37 pm to
quote:

Russian, you have a precious metal opinion?
Gold historically has been a terrible inflation hedge. Even at today's price for gold, it is still almost $1,000/oz less than it should be if it were adjusted for inflation since the early 1980's.

That is not my opinion; it is a statistical fact.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8085 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:44 pm to
I don't disagree with that, but I thInk it will be playing catchup in a major way for the next year or two. If anything I see it being drug up by silver.
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

I thInk it will be playing catchup in a major way for the next year or two.
Why?

quote:

If anything I see it being drug up by silver.
Why?
Posted by RasinCane
Member since Mar 2011
147 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:46 pm to
equities markets adjusted for inflation are doing worse
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:57 pm to
quote:

equities markets adjusted for inflation are doing worse
Totally incorrect.

The stock market, as measured by the S&P 500 index or the DJ 30 Industrial Average has beaten inflation by several percent annually since the early 1980's.

Gold prices since then are actually negative, adjusted for inflation.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8085 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 9:58 pm to
Why not?

My reasons are dollar related... I see the dollar hitting the 60 to 68 range on debt issues...the euro is also in deep crap ( I want even go into middle east issues). Chinese AND Indian physical gold purchases are going through the roof. I personally
see the Chinese trying to partially back there currency with gold.
These are a few of my reasons.

I should also say I think the us stock market will go up for another year or so followed by a correction that doesnt wipe out all of the gains since march 2009...followed by one of the bull markets in decades. So I'm not an end of the world guy
This post was edited on 4/10/11 at 10:07 pm
Posted by LSURussian
Member since Feb 2005
133515 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 10:11 pm to
quote:

Why not?
I asked you first....

quote:

I personally
see the Chinese trying to partially back there currency with gold.
I don't. All the gold in the world is not enough to back their currency for the size of their economy.

I believe the Chinese are being prudent in diversifying their massive dollar holdings by buying gold with their dollars. Nothing more than that.

They saw what happened in the 1980's & 1990's when the Japanese didn't do that and when the yen appreciated vs. the dollar, they lost massive amounts of their accumulated wealth from their huge long dollar positions.
Posted by LSU0358
Member since Jan 2005
8085 posts
Posted on 4/10/11 at 10:25 pm to
I said partially back...

And I buy that they are diversifying on the government level, but not with the private purchases.
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