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re: GDP for Q2: 3%
Posted on 9/3/24 at 3:26 pm to wutangfinancial
Posted on 9/3/24 at 3:26 pm to wutangfinancial
GDI has gotten its shite pushed in by GDP pretty consistently since Q4 2022. That level and length of bifurcation is indicative of money leaving the country (whether invested in foreign enterprise, becoming more dependent on foreign goods or both).
This post was edited on 9/3/24 at 3:34 pm
1
Posted on 9/4/24 at 7:16 am to Art Blakey
I'm not claustrophobic, but that would make me that way.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 8:02 am to CecilShortsHisPants
quote:
For example, we’re taking a financially irresponsible vacation in a couple weeks because if not now, then when?
That's right. We can save money, but it will be gobbled up by insurance, groceries or taxes
Posted on 9/4/24 at 10:50 am to StonewallJack
Posted on 9/4/24 at 11:40 am to Art Blakey
quote:
The 2/10s just uninverted.
It went flat, then went right back into inversion. LINK. Once it's out of inversion for something like 3-4 months and seems to be strongly moving upward (not bouncing around 0), that's when we will be most likely to go into a recession.
What I mean by "strongly" is a move upward of something like .2 or more in a single month within a year of moving out of inversion.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 12:23 pm to Bard
quote:
It went flat, then went right back into inversion. LINK. Once it's out of inversion for something like 3-4 months and seems to be strongly moving upward (not bouncing around 0), that's when we will be most likely to go into a recession.
What I mean by "strongly" is a move upward of something like .2 or more in a single month within a year of moving out of inversion.
LINK
Sir, I would advise you to put on your helmet.
Posted on 9/4/24 at 1:19 pm to Art Blakey
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. 
Recession confirmed.
This post was edited on 9/4/24 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 9/4/24 at 2:46 pm to Bard
No one declares a SOFT LANDING you just realize you had one
afterwards ,,,,,enjoy it. Powell screwed up on inflation late 2020 to early
2021 but he has nailed it now
afterwards ,,,,,enjoy it. Powell screwed up on inflation late 2020 to early
2021 but he has nailed it now
Posted on 9/4/24 at 3:09 pm to Tmcgin
quote:
No one declares a SOFT LANDING you just realize you had one
afterwards ,,,,,enjoy it. Powell screwed up on inflation late 2020 to early
2021 but he has nailed it now
Only soft-headed partisans are claiming we've achieved a soft landing. JPow and Janet have stated numerous times that a soft landing is the goal but I don't think either have stated that it's been achieved yet.
My stance continues to be that a "soft landing" is an impossibility when you take in the totality of the situation (ongoing deficit spending, debt servicing costs, stimmy checks, PPP loans, etc). Let me be clear on this, we will go into a recession within the next year (18 months at the most), regardless of who wins in November.
I think JP quickly realized his fricktardery and that helped him stay the course on rates. I think we could have used another .25 in the last quarter of last year (as evidenced by the persistent stickiness of inflation for most of this year). The Q2 GDP report should take some certainty out of a September cut, but not completely eliminate it (it's really going to depend on August inflation).
This post was edited on 9/4/24 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 9/4/24 at 4:29 pm to elposter
quote:
most people I know are tightening up, and yet the country as a whole seems to keep spending and letting the good times roll.
Your perception of the economy is largely driven by your social media diet. From a classical, non-polarized view of the economy of today, we're in pretty damn great shape, especially when compared to the rest of the world post-Covid. Unfortunately, that agnostic view is no longer accepted by a majority of US citizens, resulting in people having completely different perceptions of the economic health of this country. This, of course, drives different behaviors (spending, debt, saving, employment decisions, etc.).
Posted on 9/4/24 at 6:33 pm to Bard
quote:
Only soft-headed partisans are claiming we've achieved a soft landing. JPow and Janet have stated numerous times that a soft landing is the goal but I don't think either have stated that it's been achieved yet.
My stance continues to be that a "soft landing" is an impossibility when you take in the totality of the situation (ongoing deficit spending, debt servicing costs, stimmy checks, PPP loans, etc). Let me be clear on this, we will go into a recession within the next year (18 months at the most), regardless of who wins in November.
I think JP quickly realized his fricktardery and that helped him stay the course on rates. I think we could have used another .25 in the last quarter of last year (as evidenced by the persistent stickiness of inflation for most of this year). The Q2 GDP report should take some certainty out of a September cut, but not completely eliminate it (it's really going to depend on August inflation).
What about the idea that higher rates is actually stimulative due to so much coupon income being paid out?
Posted on 9/4/24 at 9:30 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:
Your perception of the economy is largely driven by your social media diet. From a classical, non-polarized view of the economy of today, we're in pretty damn great shape, especially when compared to the rest of the world post-Covid. Unfortunately, that agnostic view is no longer accepted by a majority of US citizens, resulting in people having completely different perceptions of the economic health of this country. This, of course, drives different behaviors (spending, debt, saving, employment decisions, etc.).
If you own assets it's the roaring 20s. If you don't it's the meat of the depressionary 30s. If you own recently inflated assets you feel rich despite your grocery bill doubling since 2019. If you don't you just know that your food budget is eating whatever discretionary you used to have.
The comparison to the rest of the world is based on a misunderstanding of the system imo. The treasury standard/petrodollar system where USTs function as the global reserve asset is literally designed so we get to export the bulk of our inflation. The trade off is we also had to export our industrial base to maintain the system. As a result we have entire generations of Americans stuck in shitty service/consumer facing jobs buying lottery tickets in hopes of one day owning a house. It is unsustainable and has fueled populist rage on the left and the right.
Posted on 9/5/24 at 5:46 am to Big Scrub TX
quote:
What about the idea that higher rates is actually stimulative due to so much coupon income being paid out?
We're seeing the economy bifurcate, those benefiting enough from the market to offset inflation in their normal buying habits are a minority among the citizenry (this minority gets even smaller when you look beyond merely offsetting to those who are thriving). In other words, whatever stimulation is coming from it isn't hitting enough income levels.
We've seen the "correction" in job numbers showing that a large amount of assumed jobs were fabrications, along with that we've been seeing a slow increase in initial jobless claims since January and a slower but steadier increase in continued claims since mid-2022. Meanwhile, real wages over the last year have remained roughly stagnant (a real tell on this would be looking at real wage growth changes among the various income levels) while consumers continue to accrue debt.
All of this taken together doesn't equate to there being enough stimulation (my stance continues to be that the brunt of economic stimulation (GDP growth) over the last year or two is actually coming from ongoing debt creation).
This post was edited on 9/5/24 at 12:27 pm
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