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re: FNM's/FRE's Assets to Be Unwound at 10%/Yr from 2010 On
Posted on 9/7/08 at 8:18 pm to kfizzle85
Posted on 9/7/08 at 8:18 pm to kfizzle85
I'm predicting that the August numbers will look awful, but that things will generally clear up after that. Modest monthly price declines might continue for awhile, but I don't think anything major will happen after the 3Q of this year.
1
Posted on 9/7/08 at 8:20 pm to Doc Fenton
Even though its sort of off-topic, when do you think it finally bottoms, and when do you think it subsequently starts improving after that? Just out of curiosity.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 8:24 pm to kfizzle85
I don't know. Real estate is local, so different places will do different things. Outside of CA, NV, AZ, & FL, I see home prices bottoming very soon, maybe in October.
The places with the highest percentage of outright fraud were southern California and southern Florida, so all bets are off with those places. The prices there might drop so big that it drags down the average national number for a while yet to come. Still, I think the bottom for the national average (as much as that's even a coherent concept) will come next spring.
This is just a guess based on the consensus views of economists, and on watching the general numbers of the last few months, by the way.
EDIT: And I don't think we'll see strong housing appreciation numbers in the next 5 years. It'll probably just be modest increases from mid-2009 on out into the mid-term future.
The places with the highest percentage of outright fraud were southern California and southern Florida, so all bets are off with those places. The prices there might drop so big that it drags down the average national number for a while yet to come. Still, I think the bottom for the national average (as much as that's even a coherent concept) will come next spring.
This is just a guess based on the consensus views of economists, and on watching the general numbers of the last few months, by the way.
EDIT: And I don't think we'll see strong housing appreciation numbers in the next 5 years. It'll probably just be modest increases from mid-2009 on out into the mid-term future.
This post was edited on 9/7/08 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 9/7/08 at 8:30 pm to Doc Fenton
Indeed, even though it is hard for me to really form a definite opinion, I am in the same boat with all of those opinions. Being in New Orleans, I'm curious to see how much subprime,alt-a,arm,etc has been delayed due to Katrina, and how much of an effect the Road Home stuff will have on housing prices around here. But yeah, Cali, Phoenix, Fl, definitely make those national indexes look really terrible and a lot worse than they actually are in a lot of places (not that they aren't bad though).
Posted on 9/7/08 at 9:38 pm to kfizzle85
Asia is up 4% already and US futures are way up. This is just stupid. House prices will continue to plunge.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 9:46 pm to Tiger JJ
I am looking at it as a great shorting opportunity.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 9:49 pm to Doc Fenton
WINNERS IN ALL THIS MESS =
lobbyists for fannie and freddie. They walk away with millions in cash, while the taxpayers and common and preferred stockholders suffer.
lobbyists for fannie and freddie. They walk away with millions in cash, while the taxpayers and common and preferred stockholders suffer.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 9:54 pm to SantinoClaus
On the flip side, they are now out of a job for the immediate future, as part of the bailout is a complete suspension of all lobbying activities.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 9:59 pm to SantinoClaus
quote:
while the common and preferred stockholders suffer
Perhaps the funniest thing ever posted on this board.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 10:53 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
Never a good sign.
Col has made me some serious dough. Not as much as JT though. That muthafricka is clutch.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 10:54 pm to Tiger JJ
quote:
Asia is up 4% already and US futures are way up. This is just stupid. House prices will continue to plunge.
You got to let go of that rational thing. Markets are not efficient, nor do they pay attention.
My premise that everything is absurd applies to financial markets too.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 10:55 pm to MileHigh
Well, granted I never paid attention to him until December. But since then he's basically been wrong about ... well, everything.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 10:57 pm to MileHigh
My premise is that JerseyTiger wants house prices to go down a lot.
A market bounce tomorrow would be perfectly rational.
A market bounce tomorrow would be perfectly rational.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:10 pm to Doc Fenton
quote:
But since then he's basically been wrong about ... well, everything.
Well, he has poor timing. He was fundamentally right about LEH, C, FNM, FRE taking a dive. I think he just bought a little early. Me, I am up over 75% since march or so, when I decided to start shorting.
quote:
My premise is that JerseyTiger wants house prices to go down a lot.
No. I don't think JT thinks like that. I think he would rather have the US economy do well than poorly. He just pays real close attention to this for his job, and shares with us. JT has made me a lot of money......so I may be biased.
quote:
A market bounce tomorrow would be perfectly rational.
How so? FRE lied and pushed losses forward. My rational brain thinks that others did the same, I think we actually have proof with WFC.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:12 pm to Doc Fenton
With this mess, Lehman "shaking up some executives," and WAMU ousting their 18-years running CEO, it should make for quite a week, no?
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:13 pm to kfizzle85
quote:
With this mess, Lehman "shaking up some executives," and WAMU ousting their 18-years running CEO, it should make for quite a week, no?
I think the next 3-4 weeks are going to be a wild ride. We will see a yo-yo in financials.
This post was edited on 9/7/08 at 11:13 pm
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:17 pm to MileHigh
quote:
How so?
The government is taking over the two biggest firms in a struggling housing market, which froze up a huge portion of credit markets for the better part of a year. Of course the market is going to respond well to the government adding unlimited liquidity to the market to stabilize house prices. It's just common sense.
Of course, this assumes that the stock market is already rationally priced to begin with, which probably isn't true. But supposing that it were true, then a jump in the stock market would be entirely appropriate.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:19 pm to kfizzle85
Bottom line: Lehman needs to get sold ASAP. If the Treasury pulls another Bear Stearns, I'm fine with that. If Singapore buys Lehman and cuts thousands of jobs, I'm fine with that too. Just kill the zombies. The key to not ending up like Japan is to make sure you kill the zombies.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:20 pm to MileHigh
No reason to limit it to just the financials. Depending on how this plays out, the dollar could reverse and pull oil back up with it. Rising commodities price and falling asset prices coupled with rising inflation in the Eurozone and an impending currency crisis in South Korea. Pretty nuts stuff.
Posted on 9/7/08 at 11:21 pm to Doc Fenton
The latest I saw with Lehman was them splitting it up into a "bad bank/good bank" deal.
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