quote:
And, "housing evangelists" or not, the fact that prior to that last bubble bursting, there were over 5 MILLION starts for the 3 years 2005 through 2007 and that was on a slight decline for 2007.

In the 15 years since, there have been barely 13 million (through 2021) starts, only getting back to pre-2008 levels in 2021. Roughly 1.5 million a year is a reasonable estimate of a median year going back decades.

The last 15 years has us roughly 9 to 10 million short.

All of the above sounds like an article, or articles you've read that are written by real estate/housing shills. Here is the raw data below from the Federal Reserve:

These are Total Housing Units dating back to 1958. Historically, the total units hover 1.10-1.50mm units as the norm. Currently, the total is 1.55mm units. The "9 to 10 million short" you reference does not exist. It's a myth, and is reflected in this graph. Total units are within - possibly exceeding - the historical norm.

Next is the Total of Single Family Units. Again, just eyeballing without running any statistical computations, Single Family Units are within the historical range. The anomaly in this graph is how much was overbuilt from 2002-2008, due to a number of factors. There was no need to build single family units from 2008-2010 because no one would purchase them. Currently, we are at historical norms. Again, the lack of inventory is a mirage written by idiots, or people that are disingenuously shilling for their industry.

The graphs represent raw data. No editorializing, just what the numbers are historically and currently. I don't know how else to convey that the lack of inventory you insist exist is a myth. It's not there.

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Posted by Ace Midnight

Between sanity and madness

Member since Dec 2006

94814 posts

Posted on 6/24/22 at 12:23 pm to alpinetiger

quote:
The "9 to 10 million short" you reference does not exist. It's a myth, and is reflected in this graph.

The graph that shows starts dropped to about half/two-thirds of the decades long norm for over a decade? THAT graph?

Surely you're not suggesting that graph shows that 2010 to present is anything in the neighborhood of any 10-12 year period on that graph going back to the 1950s, are you?

U.S. population 1960: 180 million

U.S. population 2020: 330 million

I hate to get into arguments over stuff like this, but you're wrong. You obviously know you're wrong. I would ask why you're doing this, but this is fatiguing.

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Posted by tokenBoiler

Lafayette, Indiana

Member since Aug 2012

4987 posts

Posted on 6/24/22 at 4:25 pm to HailToTheChiz

quote:
Explain like I'm 5

Nobody can afford to buy a house. The Fed wants to drop a big steamer in the punchbowl at the party where the current house owners all get together and laugh at the poors. After the punchbowl gets cleaned out, people will be able to afford to buy houses. For a while.

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Posted by molsusports

Member since Jul 2004

37156 posts

Posted on 6/25/22 at 12:19 am to Ace Midnight

quote:

The graph that shows starts dropped to about half/two-thirds of the decades long norm for over a decade? THAT graph?

That graph shows housing starts (not total home sales or total supply) FWIW. The average over many decades was 1 to 1.2 million annually. There was an obvious bubble and pop in the last housing crash. The number of new properties constructed were obviously well over what was needed when housing became a speculative growth or investment asset.

There was not a deficit as far as I can tell. There was a significant oversupply. It took a substantial amount of time to work through that oversupply but that correction is now being used as if it were evidence of a deficit.

Young and poor people have a deficit of affordable housing but a large number of older people, investors, and hedge funds have plenty of property.

quote:

U.S. population 1960: 180 million

U.S. population 2020: 330 million

I agree that housing needs are strongly affected by demographic growth but when the total number of people are compared to the total supply there appears to have been more than a proportional increase in housing.

Consider annual sales of existing homes (not including new home sales)which have gradually increased from less than two million annually in 1968 to over six million in 2021 (and were over seven million in the bubble of 2005).

The percentage who own their own home is also not very far off historical highs so I don't see a strong reason why it should be expected to rise. I am open to someone showing me different data but when you look at the HUD or FRED data I just don't see where a shortage of housing compared to historical norms shows up.

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