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Started By
Message
re: COLONEL - YOUR ANSWER
Posted on 2/11/09 at 10:27 am to amsterdam
Posted on 2/11/09 at 10:27 am to amsterdam
quote:
There is no shortage of opinions with this stuff.
Sure, but mine is the correct one.
quote:
I look at your opinions about index funds with as much disdain as you look at my opinions on actively managed ones.
I don't look on actively managed ones with disdain, they don't suck and are probably just fine for the average customer who doesn't know a bond from a stock. But they don't beat indexes, pure and simple.
The managers are generally pretty smart and dedicated people too, I know several back from when I was an equity and bond analyst. They're not dumb. But they can't beat an index despite trying very hard.
quote:
You guys realize I am talking about balanced funds with stocks, bonds, cash, international equity and debt right?
Yes. My example of FGRIX is just that.
quote:
I am justified in my beliefs as you guys are in yours.
Well, one of us is justified ...
0
Posted on 2/11/09 at 10:29 am to amsterdam
quote:
wow man, did your boyfriend just break up with you or something? get a traffic ticket? or do you make it your mission to be the most negative poster on here.
Impressive. Must be that gift for gab that put you in the industry.
quote:
I can back up what I say.
No, you can't.
quote:
You guys have your literature, I have mine to. There is no shortage of opinions with this stuff.
Opinions are irrelevant.
quote:
but as many of you have so justly pointed out the past results are in the past, what about the future.
You mean as so many of us justly pointed out, thus blowing your stupid look back argument out of the water?
quote:
Returns are one of the LAST things I look for.
I call bullshite.
quote:
I prefer to speak to the fund managers themselves for better explanation of how they manage money.
How novel.
quote:
You should give it a try...you might find that not all of them are idiots
I never said they were idiots. I said YOU were an idiot. Mutual fund managers are likely to be advanced degree holders and/or CFA charter holders. They are not idiots. They are simply unable to achieve a specific task - beating the market.
quote:
In the end I am justified in my beliefs as you guys are in yours.
Translation: in the end, I like charging fees for nonsense, so I will tell myself whatever I need to tell myself in order to sleep at night.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 10:52 am to amsterdam
amsterdam, with all the information that has been presented to you in this thread, and you still don't get it, I don't think you will (at least from the folks at td.com) ... Most of this is a basic concept...I'm not saying this to bash you, just stating that since you are at least involved in finance, I think you are capable of grasping this concept if you study it a little more... I've only been involved in the markets for a little over a year and I completely understand this... I really think the only thing that could get you to understand is if you read this book :
LINK
I have a copy if you would like to borrow it, I don't mind...I'm located by coursey/sherwood...I could leave it with my secretary if you want to come pick it up....
LINK
I have a copy if you would like to borrow it, I don't mind...I'm located by coursey/sherwood...I could leave it with my secretary if you want to come pick it up....
Posted on 2/11/09 at 11:24 am to GeneralLee
quote:
So you can honestly tell me that you've always recommended what is best for the client, not for your commissions? I had an internship at a brokerage, and the new guys usually can't meet production unless they sell investments that most likely aren't in the best interests of the client....
Then the new guys did not see enough people. You don't have to sell your soul in this business to make a nice living.
And I can tell you in ANY business, new guys make bad choices based on sales. Plumbers, mechanics, fast food, building contractors, doctors, operators at chemical plants, whatever. In some of these professions, the crappy work is not seen for years or never seen at all.
In this business, the results are more telling. What a financial adviser/planner/agent/registered rep does is more transparent than most industries. People will look at their money because it is easier to do (statements), more focus on it (market, CNBC, retirement, purchases, etc), and more competition (banks, i-net, opinions of friends, family, forums, etc).
Posted on 2/11/09 at 11:28 am to tirebiter
quote:
Then again, some people are too lazy or totally disinterested in financial matters and might be better off using fee only planners or a broker.
Or they realize they have no interest in doing it themselves. Maybe for the time it takes them to learn and manage their plan, they could actually earn more paying someone else to do it for them. Or they have better uses with their time.
Yea, this financial stuff may be easy for you and you have a real interest in it. However, most see it as a pain in the arse and would rather use their time to be with family, hobbies or career.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 11:31 am to Alltheway Tigers!
quote:
Alltheway Tigers!
Well said.
I worked in the industry for a little under four years. There are shysters, and there are honest hard-working people too. Pretty much like everything else. Due to the regulated nature of the business it's probably more aboveboard than a lot of other career choices.
But a lot of people get into it who greatly overrate their ability to do well in the market. Just like we all think we're better than average drivers. This isn't being willfully dishonest, it just isn't being right.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 11:59 am to Alltheway Tigers!
quote:
Or they realize they have no interest in doing it themselves. Maybe for the time it takes them to learn and manage their plan, they could actually earn more paying someone else to do it for them. Or they have better uses with their time. Yea, this financial stuff may be easy for you and you have a real interest in it. However, most see it as a pain in the arse and would rather use their time to be with family, hobbies or career.
Absolutely agree, especially freeing up time to enjoy life. The sad thing about this entire thread is the simple academic realization that asset allocation, not specific security selection, explains 90% of investor returns. It can be simple, the John Bogle book is an excellent read for those who want to DIY in an easy, yet very efficient, manner.
Ascertaining one's true risk tolerance, that's a totally different challenge. Inevitably, most retail investors are better served with a higher savings rate and less risky, low cost portfolio.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:38 pm to Zilla
quote:
... Most of this is a basic concept...I'm not saying this to bash you, just stating that since you are at least involved in finance, I think you are capable of grasping this concept if you study it a little more
Zilla,
I get your argument and I understand its merit. I simply have come to a different conclusion than most posters here. To keep the argument balanced, I post my view. You guys do not want to admit it, but despite what you have read there is some merit in what I say. I dont expect most of you to agree and that is fine.
As far as the book, maybe when I have some time to add another book to the list. I read everyday and currently have more books to read than I have the time. Appreciate the offer.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:46 pm to Tiger JJ
quote:
never said they were idiots. I said YOU were an idiot
My IQ, Licenses, and Certifications may disagree with you on that
Jersey,
You are such a ball of sunshine
Your right, you guessed it all. I am nothing more than an a bumbling idiot, who charges high fees for nothing, wastes peoples money, in fact Ive had an L stuck on my head since childbirth. Thank you for pointing out my obvious faults oh wise one.
As for me being an alter, If I created an alter it would be someone who has my back on this board
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:47 pm to Alltheway Tigers!
quote:
Or they realize they have no interest in doing it themselves. Maybe for the time it takes them to learn and manage their plan, they could actually earn more paying someone else to do it for them. Or they have better uses with their time.
Yea, this financial stuff may be easy for you and you have a real interest in it. However, most see it as a pain in the arse and would rather use their time to be with family, hobbies or career.
+1
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:50 pm to amsterdam
quote:
You are such a ball of sunshine
This isn't about positive or negative. It's about your willfull ignorance and/or dishonesty costing your clients money.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:53 pm to Tiger JJ
BTW you guys have grilled me unmercifully for looking at past performance and using that to justify my picks over colonels
I want to point out again that I have said repeatedly how unfair the challenge was to him, and that I didnt want to do it.
Its also why I said if the challenge was posted the other way, it would be equally unfair to me
He called me out, I responded
I want to point out again that I have said repeatedly how unfair the challenge was to him, and that I didnt want to do it.
Its also why I said if the challenge was posted the other way, it would be equally unfair to me
He called me out, I responded
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:56 pm to amsterdam
FWIW I don't have an opinion on your funds argument, but you come off as full of shite and arrogant with respect to a lot of things, and then try and turn the argument around by saying people are attacking you (which they are, because you're not answering the questions they're asking you). I want to believe you about the bk question, but I really don't. I think you were speaking out of your arse initially, and covered at the last second. I just wanted to say my peace about that issue, I don't want to harass you about it anymore.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 12:57 pm to amsterdam
quote:
BTW you guys have grilled me unmercifully for looking at past performance and using that to justify my picks over colonels
I want to point out again that I have said repeatedly how unfair the challenge was to him, and that I didnt want to do it.
Its also why I said if the challenge was posted the other way, it would be equally unfair to me
He called me out, I responded
Forget about "the challenge" and focus on your persistent beliefs:
a)mutual fund outperformance is explainable by factors other than luck or statistical noise
b)mutual fund outperformance is persistent and repeatable
Until you become a lot more realistic on those 2, you will receive unmerciful treatment.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 1:00 pm to amsterdam
brah, you claimed you could find funds that would consistently run rings around an index. You posted them. I took a screen snapshot of that post and will post it on Jan 1 of every year for the next few years to see how your picks do. I don't know what "unfairness" you're talking about.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 1:07 pm to amsterdam
quote:
You guys do not want to admit it
Well, my four years in industry and three more studying for a Ph.D. in the field led me to another conclusion. I really don't think there is anything to admit, I'm simply regurgitating observed facts.
As far what I believe to be true (as opposed to what is demonstrably so), I believe there is definitely a place for financial planning services. There is also a place for combinations of index funds tailored to specific retirement needs, which is a sort of active management in its own right. But that isn't quite the same thing.
It's also worth noting that not everything has an index fund or ETF. In such cases, if you want to invest in that particular bucket of course there is no choice. But it is observed fact that in any given period, an index fund will outperform the vast majority of actively managed funds, and it is also a fact that an actively managed fund that outperforms its index benchmark in one period will tend to underperform it later.
That isn't opinion, just look up the numbers.
This post was edited on 2/11/09 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 2/11/09 at 1:29 pm to kfizzle85
Kfizzle:
A) Im not full of shite
B) I was looking at my past posts and you may have a point on the arrogant thing. I can assure you it was unintended, but I can see what your talking about. From my number of posts you can see Im new to the message board thing. I will try to temper the tone a bit in the future
Believe it or not on the bk thing. I have like 12 books I cant wait to get to. Im always reading a financial book and a fiction at the same time. I used to work in a bookstore in college and got hooked on the nasty habit. I will definetly look up the book, b/c I like to know what the general public is reading, and differing viewpoints. I have already added the Black swan to the list. Let you guys know what I think.
quote:
but you come off as full of shite and arrogant
A) Im not full of shite
B) I was looking at my past posts and you may have a point on the arrogant thing. I can assure you it was unintended, but I can see what your talking about. From my number of posts you can see Im new to the message board thing. I will try to temper the tone a bit in the future
Believe it or not on the bk thing. I have like 12 books I cant wait to get to. Im always reading a financial book and a fiction at the same time. I used to work in a bookstore in college and got hooked on the nasty habit. I will definetly look up the book, b/c I like to know what the general public is reading, and differing viewpoints. I have already added the Black swan to the list. Let you guys know what I think.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 1:31 pm to amsterdam
move the black swan to the top. Seriously. It changed the way I look at everything.
Posted on 2/11/09 at 1:40 pm to Colonel Hapablap
quote:
move the black swan to the top
I've tried but it's always checked out, both at the public library and at the university (fricking MBA students)
Posted on 2/11/09 at 5:36 pm to Cold Cous Cous
If I know of a mutual fund that has beaten VTSMX for 9 out of the last 10 years and has a 10-year average return of 11.57% vs. -1.86% 10-year average return for VTSMX, should I buy it?
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