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re: Coinbase (COIN) IPO Discussion - Happening 4/14

Posted on 5/6/21 at 5:17 pm to
Posted by JimMorrison
The Peninsula
Member since May 2012
20747 posts
Posted on 5/6/21 at 5:17 pm to
quote:

Exchanges aren’t getting 0.5% trading fees


Yes. Big downside risk to COIN on this point. What happens when other crypto exchanges implement $0 commission fees?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84609 posts
Posted on 5/6/21 at 5:19 pm to
quote:

Exchanges aren’t getting 0.5% trading fees and are not in a hyper growth market. Hence why I split the difference between payment processors and exchanges since the monetization is closer to PYPL than a tradfi exchange


But for how long? They’re going to eventually lose market share as crypto is adopted by more traditional brokerage firms. The idea that Coinbase can avoid the race to the bottom in fees that traditional brokerages experienced is a foolish one, IMO.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 5/6/21 at 5:24 pm to
did you see the article yesterday where legacy banks are getting into crypto
.... so where does coinbase go once you can buy from chase bank?

wayy too much competition out there and Brian armstrong is not bright enough to stay competitive
This post was edited on 5/6/21 at 5:25 pm
Posted by Ross
Member since Oct 2007
47824 posts
Posted on 5/6/21 at 5:27 pm to
Once the CBDCs roll out the legacy banks won’t have a choice if they want to have any business other than to get into crypto

The traditional crypto exchanges may have first mover advantage though in this space. It will be interesting
Posted by maclauer
Member since Nov 2011
4765 posts
Posted on 5/6/21 at 5:42 pm to
I used to work at a big bank. Consider me in the camp that this is all talk outside of custody for private wealth clients for a number of years. It takes forever for anything to be made internally and there just aren’t many M&A targets out there.

But, yes, I realize the mainstream view is that crypto trading and transacting fees will head to zero. I’m currently in the camp that it will take a look more similar to card processing & interchange where we still to this day are cool with 2.5% fees as the norm. If the race to the bottom occurs, I just don’t see it in the near future.

It’s a worthy discussion and an interesting one because it is such an unknown.
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
31049 posts
Posted on 5/19/21 at 8:59 am to
Past month COIN and Bitcoin appear to be following each other pretty closely. Feels like the sentiment for COIN is reflective of people's general perception of crypto as a winning investment.





Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
31049 posts
Posted on 7/26/21 at 1:06 pm to
quote:

But when their revenues are directly tied to the value of the individual cryptos, I don't know how you can argue their business ISN'T inextricably tied.


Looking back, it appears this call was pretty accurate. COIN up big because cryptos are up big, and the stock has followed the ups and downs of crypto since it launched.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 7/26/21 at 1:10 pm to
no it hasn't at all.

their revenues are tied to trading and trading volume is way down right now

coins next earnings will be brutal
This post was edited on 7/26/21 at 1:11 pm
Posted by finchmeister08
Member since Mar 2011
35587 posts
Posted on 7/26/21 at 1:21 pm to
quote:

no it hasn't at all.
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41819 posts
Posted on 7/26/21 at 1:26 pm to
MSTR is the only stock moderately correlated with crypto/Bitcoin because they hold billions of Bitcoin on their balance sheet

if you don't hold Bitcoin you're not going to be correlated to it, its such an absurd claim on the surface especially since it trades 24/7 and stocks do not
Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
31049 posts
Posted on 7/27/21 at 10:31 am to
So you're going to try and say with a straight face that there is no correlation between these charts? As bitcoin falls, trading volume falls, and so does COINs revenue (and interest in COIN stock).



Posted by Chucktown_Badger
The banks of the Ashley River
Member since May 2013
31049 posts
Posted on 8/10/21 at 3:19 pm to
EPS of $6.42. Damn.
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