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Started By
Message
Call the Bottom
Posted on 1/25/09 at 11:18 am
Posted on 1/25/09 at 11:18 am
Based on what you know now, regardless of what you may have predicted earlier.
I say DOW @ 6800 and S&P 500 @ 700 in May of this year.
(I predicted DOW @ 7500 back in October. It happened too fast and bounced too high. That's why I lowered my number.)
I say DOW @ 6800 and S&P 500 @ 700 in May of this year.
(I predicted DOW @ 7500 back in October. It happened too fast and bounced too high. That's why I lowered my number.)
4
Posted on 1/25/09 at 11:52 am to Parliament
S&P at 500, maybe 450 by the end of the year.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 11:58 am to Parliament
im not qualified to say anything.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 12:23 pm to Parliament
6125 end of April.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 12:45 pm to LoyalTiger211
quote:
im not qualified to say anything.
Then they'll love you on the OT and Rant.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 12:59 pm to LoyalTiger211
quote:
im not qualified to say anything.
Just as qualified as most economists then
Posted on 1/25/09 at 3:54 pm to LSUtoOmaha
A better question would be: when do we retest the Nov lows (7552 and 752 respectively)? I say within the next two weeks, but we've started seeing some dispersion between the terror sector of finance and the rest of the economy. Could be the beginnings of a bottom as far as the indicies go. Considering how much the financials have been wiped out (from a price standpoint (DOW) and a market cap standpoint (SPX), their ability to drag on the headline index numbers is obviously smaller and smaller.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 6:51 pm to LoyalTiger211
Let's do the math.
George Herbert Walker Bush = Herbert Hoover
Check
1929 crash = 2008 crash
Check
Then, per Wikipedia:
"The market recovered for several months from that point, with the Dow reaching a secondary peak (i.e., dead cat bounce) at 294.0 in April 1930. The market embarked on a steady slide in April 1931 that did not end until 1932 when the Dow closed at 41.22 on July 8, concluding a shattering 89% decline from the peak. This was the lowest the stock market had been since the 19th century."
So, it's possible that we won't see a true bottom until . . .
Sometime in 2011.
Hey, keep calling the bottom. Warren Buffett doesn't waste his time with such childishness.
George Herbert Walker Bush = Herbert Hoover
Check
1929 crash = 2008 crash
Check
Then, per Wikipedia:
"The market recovered for several months from that point, with the Dow reaching a secondary peak (i.e., dead cat bounce) at 294.0 in April 1930. The market embarked on a steady slide in April 1931 that did not end until 1932 when the Dow closed at 41.22 on July 8, concluding a shattering 89% decline from the peak. This was the lowest the stock market had been since the 19th century."
So, it's possible that we won't see a true bottom until . . .
Sometime in 2011.
Hey, keep calling the bottom. Warren Buffett doesn't waste his time with such childishness.
This post was edited on 1/25/09 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 1/25/09 at 7:00 pm to ElmGrove
I love partisans, it's easy to take their money. 
Posted on 1/25/09 at 7:12 pm to Colonel Hapablap
I think this is a medium-term bottom for equities. I'd pay more attention to the housing market. I don't see a bottom there for at least a few more years. An then I don't see it going up.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 7:21 pm to Tiger JJ
JerseyTiger:
Solid call. Like a big city getting snowed in, not knowing when the next Pineapple Express will shift the pattern.
What do you think of UBS and their financial advisors?
Solid call. Like a big city getting snowed in, not knowing when the next Pineapple Express will shift the pattern.
What do you think of UBS and their financial advisors?
Posted on 1/25/09 at 7:25 pm to Tiger JJ
define medium term. I don't think it holds for anything more than another month.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 7:54 pm to ElmGrove
quote:
George Herbert Walker Bush
hasn't been president for 16 years.
Posted on 1/25/09 at 8:14 pm to clamdip
There's a wild conspiracy theory that cheerleader/frat/silver-spoon shrub and 41 are actually one and the same, being as they're both from the same UFO pod. GWB = GHWB = Hoover
Posted on 1/25/09 at 9:31 pm to Parliament
Parliament.... I think you are about right. Unfortunately my 401K does not like that! 
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