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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 1/27/14 at 7:38 am to
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 1/27/14 at 7:38 am to
UNG down in premarket, placed order for Feb 24-28 bull call spread for a buck.

I didn't get the July bear puts as low as I could have, but I would expect this trade to deteriorate all through the winter and spring anyway.

The weeklies always have Friday expiration. Interesting for those that watch the Thursday reports.


Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 12:44 pm to
Strange reaction with respect to the pricing of the tracking ETF's to the supply.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22745 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 12:55 pm to
Yes.......very much so
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84609 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 1:24 pm to
Yeah interesting movement. Luckily I'm on the right side today.
Posted by TheBigHurt
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2378 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:24 pm to
I've continued to buy KOLD. Cost basis now at $46. Unbelievable how it reached 36 and change.
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22745 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 2:55 pm to
Ridiculous I took my wifes 401k and bought and got her 1000 @ 37 shares she made more today than all of last quarter. hahaha
This post was edited on 1/30/14 at 2:57 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
84609 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 3:47 pm to
Impressive 401k if you can buy leveraged ETFs in it. I'd imagine you meant her IRA, no?
Posted by L S Usetheforce
Member since Jun 2004
22745 posts
Posted on 1/30/14 at 3:54 pm to
Sorry 401k rollover to fidelity.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 2/4/14 at 1:53 pm to
What's the cheapest July 14 puts to load up on today? 25's look promising?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 2/6/14 at 4:58 pm to
At this point I'm considering $20 puts given how cheap they seem to be. UNG, bot BOIL. I don't like what BOIL owns, and sure don't like their pricey options. Selling some $60 July calls could prove exciting though.
Posted by NOTORlOUSD
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2010
5051 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 8:42 am to
I'm looking at shorting natural gas (using an ETF) in anticipation of it dropping $0.50 or more in the next two months. Should I go with KOLD, DGAZ, or something else?
Posted by PropofoLSU
Irwin, Idaho
Member since Aug 2013
543 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 9:36 am to
You are apparently about 2 weeks too late.......maybe wait till midweek to see what happens

I bought 2000 shares of Kold at 37.46 two weeks ago.........

DGAZ is a 3x multiplier and way more risky but if you want a short jump thats probably your play if you like to gamble.
This post was edited on 2/10/14 at 9:37 am
Posted by TheBigHurt
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2378 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 9:47 am to
We should see a dip in KOLD (Double short Nat Gas) and DGAZ (Triple short Nat Gas) this afternoon or tomorrow morning due to winter storm. I believe you are in a good entry point anywhere below $40 for KOLD and below $3 for DGAZ. Once it warms up and less gas is used for heating, supply should catch up with demand and we should see profits. I'm pretty heavy in KOLD and have dollar cost average down to $46. Interested in buying some DGAZ if it gets below $3 target.
Posted by NOTORlOUSD
Houston, TX
Member since Sep 2010
5051 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 11:42 am to
I feel like the market has already factored in the cold snap tomorrow and views warming temps later in the week as the light at the end of the tunnel. A major cold snap in late Feb or early March would be needed to send it back up.

I was originally planning to wait until tomorrow or Wednesday, but I decided to jump on DGAZ this morning at 4.21. It has jumped 10% since then!

I'm trying to decide now how tight to keep my stop order.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 4:28 pm to
I think the market has priced in contango and backwardation of the holdings of both BOIL and UNG. BOIL and UNG are only what they own, and they don't own natural gas. They own futures. Specifically BOIL which owns out to April. I've never understood the infatuation with BOIL this late in the winter due this this alone. At least UNG only owns next months contracts.

My February UNG bull call spread will likely not be as profitable due to this. My July UNG bear put spread still has a chance to make decent money.

You guys do what you want, but both BOIL and UNG are really designed for day trades, and I'd not ever own the paper long term.

Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 6:14 pm to
What are you holding on the other side of your July 14 bear put spread trade?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 7:32 pm to
quote:

What are you holding on the other side of your July 14 bear put spread trade?


I'm not sure what you're asking me here?
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2471 posts
Posted on 2/10/14 at 9:33 pm to
You said you bought July puts, so what did you sell? Maybe I misinterpreted your term "spread trade".
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10229 posts
Posted on 2/11/14 at 7:31 am to
quote:

You said you bought July puts, so what did you sell? Maybe I misinterpreted your term "spread trade".


Sold 18, bought 20 & 23 in unequal amounts.
Posted by 5 Deep
Crawford Boxes
Member since Jul 2010
21414 posts
Posted on 2/11/14 at 8:25 am to
quote:

I bought 2000 shares of Kold at 37.46 two weeks ago.........


I got in right around 35 but only bought a few shares. when do you plan on selling, PropofoLSU?
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