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re: BOIL has become predictable

Posted on 5/29/14 at 3:41 pm to
Posted by TheBigHurt
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
2395 posts
Posted on 5/29/14 at 3:41 pm to
Yeah, I'm scratching my head. Maybe this is what held it back.
LINK
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/29/14 at 6:46 pm to
Odd reaction today. Even some analysts that are bullish were left scratching their heads.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 6:04 am to
Cash contract is at $4.735. Ouch.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 1:40 pm to
$20 July UNG puts are being bid at .02.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 2:08 pm to
I am now deeper in this short trade. All in, all the way.
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16732 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 5:45 pm to
Another interesting day in the UNG world. I'm not sure what to make of it, but I'm holding ground until the end of Summer for better or worse.
Posted by TigeRoots
Member since Oct 2008
8534 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 6:19 pm to
quote:

Another interesting day in the UNG world. I'm not sure what to make of it, but I'm holding ground until the end of Summer for better or worse.


Same here. I had plans to cash out around June/July to invest elsewhere, but that may have to wait till Aug/Sept now. I'm steadily dumping into DGAZ anytime it gets below $3.
This post was edited on 5/30/14 at 6:19 pm
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 9:48 pm to
July 18th is my time limit. I think we'll be fine by then. I hope at least.

Interesting big picture story on pipeline capacity here:

LINK /
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 9:49 pm to
Cash - 4.718s -0.017
Jul '14 (NGN14) 4.542s -0.017
Aug '14 (NGQ14) 4.524s -0.016
Sep '14 (NGU14) 4.492s -0.013
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 5/30/14 at 9:52 pm to
UNG daily holdings - no pending transaction as they are 100% in July contracts. I think they start to roll some of their July to August in about 10-15 days.

Commodity Interests
NYMEX Natural Gas NG JUL14 4,885 4.542 $221,876,700.00
ICE Natural Gas LD1 H JUL14 39,873 4.542 $452,757,915.00
US Treasurys
US T BILL ZCP 06/26/14 50,000,000 100.00 $49,999,652.70
US T BILL ZCP 08/28/14 50,000,000 99.99 $49,996,333.33
US T BILL ZCP 10/30/14 200,000,000 99.98 $199,966,444.40
Cash
US DOLLARS 410,481,630 1.00 $410,481,629.71
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/1/14 at 8:41 pm to
Sunday trading opens higher.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 6:47 am to
Up a nickel. Decision time, cost average down, or hold tight?
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 3:07 pm to
I went a little bit deeper. I tried to direct to exchange a custom options buy right before close, but couldn't get it in.

Anyway, I think it's all about pipeline capacity right now. I've read injections as high as 120 for Thursday.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 3:53 pm to
I stand corrected on injection estimates for Thursday:

LINK
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 4:03 pm to
And below is why I still think we get out of this short trade and make money:

LINK
Posted by rintintin
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
16732 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 5:07 pm to
I wish I knew what that meant.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/2/14 at 7:17 pm to
Spot prices of natural gas. Futures have to come towards spot prices. Again, the futures markets are disconnected from spot prices. These spot prices are all lower. July contracts just started to trade. They settle at the cash contract when they expire, which isn't necessarily spot price, but closer to spot then what they are trading for currently.
Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/3/14 at 8:04 am to
Cash is at $4.53, and July is at $4.646 this A.M.

Do we finally start to see backwardation?

Cash 6/2/2014 4.530s +0.040
Jul '14 (NGN14) 4.646 +0.034
Aug '14 (NGQ14) 4.633 +0.035
Sep '14 (NGU14) 4.603 +0.034

Posted by Iowa Golfer
Heaven
Member since Dec 2013
10546 posts
Posted on 6/3/14 at 1:18 pm to
July over .11 higher than yesterday's HH cash price. Crazy, but mildly good news for us.

It is bloody today in the option's pits. I can barely stand to watch.
Posted by sneakytiger
Member since Oct 2007
2495 posts
Posted on 6/3/14 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

I can barely stand to watch.


Do what I do, don't
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