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Started By
Message
re: BCRX: up 27% after home biotech conference. Orledayo forecast update from ceo
Posted on 11/5/21 at 9:40 am to bayoubengals88
Posted on 11/5/21 at 9:40 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
I’m most heavily invested in AKBA, but that’s due to the investment plan I have for it.
All three are quite different. Give me a few days to further consider.
Thanks for the reply. I'll be following these threads closely so I'm sure I'll see as the days pass what the feelings are.
I am starting to research HALB (Halberd Corp) but not sure if it's beyond too early for me to dedicate the time to that.
1
Posted on 11/5/21 at 9:18 pm to ShootingsBricks4Life
some wisdom from stocktwits:
so right now the valuation is based on only hitting 550m a year...given the nature of oral vs IV thearpies I think we can do better.
quote:
Our survey work is consistent with BCRX’s diligence that physicians expect Orladeyo to be the most used prophylactic HAE medicine. We are maintaining our peak penetration estimate in the U.S. of 35% which leads to ~
$550M
in sales before accounting for ex-U.S. sales. We continue to recommend BCRX shares as we look to the continued launch, geographic expansion and continued pipeline progress to drive shares higher.” -JMP Update—
so right now the valuation is based on only hitting 550m a year...given the nature of oral vs IV thearpies I think we can do better.
Posted on 11/6/21 at 8:30 am to oklahogjr
Sounds good I may pick up some more shares
Posted on 11/6/21 at 9:16 am to deltaland
I bought shares too soon on Wednesday, i.e., should've waited one more day for cheaper shares; but I agree with you and might add more on a dip. 
Posted on 11/6/21 at 9:29 am to oklahogjr
quote:Yes. 4x peak sales.
so right now the valuation is based on only hitting 550m a year...
So 3390 isn’t even remotely factored in right now. That’s the big one.
It’s so difficult for me to value a company with a broad pipeline when I’m used to just one drug. I like keeping things simple!
Edit: the drug in phase 2 is 9930, not 3390.
This post was edited on 11/6/21 at 11:29 am
Posted on 11/6/21 at 11:24 am to oklahogjr
From a reply post by "Dr_Van_Nostrend" LINK on StockTwits:
quote:
Personally, I think if we get 9930 early approval in China... it's huge. It not only gets us significant moneyflow now, depending on if we partner, which surely we would, but it gives you more proof of concept WHILE running concurrent trials everywhere else.
Furthermore, if in a year we file for PDUFA date and it's bedn approved in China for a year on great results further justified, there is no way we don't get FDA and EU approval while China is already been using it without issue for a year.
Stock price wise, early approval in China, the 2nd largest drug market in the world after the US... I would expect we instantly pop to $25+ within weeks. It would completely obliterate practically any bear thesis conjurable.
Posted on 11/6/21 at 3:24 pm to Longer Tail Tiger
Paul from Yahoo comments section seems to have a pretty good handle on things. BCRX investors certainly know what they own (reminds me of AUPH).
quote:
After predicted adjustment in overblown expectations, attention now turns to the slower but certain climb quarter by quarter of O sales. Fourth-quarter expect top end of yearly guidance, so 44M in fourth quarter O sales or anything over that is a considerable positive.Management confirmed essentially all sales so far have been US. UK sales begin in December with NICE steerage and larger chunks of patients come online at a time both in UK and in European model of patient steerage we will see in 2022. Each quarter adding 7 to 10M at current trajectory and amounts over this will be extremely rewarded in stock price. European price however is about 1/2 of US price of 480 K, so currently that represents about 300 paying US patients and an additional 1/3 100-120 patients are on free prescription Per management comments ,which will convert quarter by quarter. As 2022 progresses we will see quarter by quarter annualizing from initial goal of 125M Per quarter, when market will perceive exceeding 500 M yearly which management has forecast. Any increases beyond 10 M per quarter in O sales will propel the stock price toward the 20s, and once it is perceived exceeding of 125M per quarter market valuation and SP might head toward 30. That could take one or two years however for the patient investor.
Talk about 9930 is more than two years away so much higher valuations depend on that. there will be slow enrollment in that trial and One year duration of the study but with 12 and 24 week data points which may be divulged by the company along the way.and then FDA submission after that, no earlier than two years from now for the realistic investor.However if you are looking ahead in a three-year window that is when Much larger rewards may occur.
This post was edited on 11/6/21 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 11/6/21 at 11:13 pm to ShootingsBricks4Life
quote:Damn. It’s gonna be BCRX by a long shot. This is where my spare cash is gonna go…
Which do you like better of the three? BCRX, AKBA, and ALBO?
Posted on 11/7/21 at 12:38 am to bayoubengals88
quote:
Yes. 4x peak sales.
So 3390 isn’t even remotely factored in right now. That’s the big one.
Yeah and that's a conservative 4x because it's only US sales. It's also not looking at rapivab.
quote:
It’s so difficult for me to value a company with a broad pipeline when I’m used to just one drug. I like keeping things simple!
After looking I'm realizing I need to change my model up for them. Basically here is how I see it. I'm gonna forecast based on probability of each drug passing based on it's phase, and then estimate peak sales.
Then take that number and get a net present value for each based on how far out we are from those peak sales.
Example:
Total market size 100 patients. and we'll way 90% particpation rate since were talking orphan drugs, and then we estimate $500 per year based on competitors or as close as possible competitor.
100*$500*.9= potential drug value estimate.(PDV)
Then i reduce by phase. so 60% of drugs pass phase 1, 33% phase 2 and 3. so for each remaining phase to pass. so a drug that is pending phase 2 results would be
PDV *(1-.33)*(1-.33)
Then take the Net present value of those results based on how long out you think it will take to get net present value and some kind of opportunity cost discount rate( bond rates or S&P 500, mortgage rates are all good candidates here to play with).
This post was edited on 11/7/21 at 2:34 am
Posted on 11/7/21 at 3:06 am to oklahogjr
Royalty pharma transaction
this article i think will help us anchor it in as well:
if i'm reading right, for $550 million in royalties on ordaleyo and then 1% of future 9930 sales we got 325 million and some access to additional credit. we also need to factor in the royalties in the model to reduce the value.
this article i think will help us anchor it in as well:
if i'm reading right, for $550 million in royalties on ordaleyo and then 1% of future 9930 sales we got 325 million and some access to additional credit. we also need to factor in the royalties in the model to reduce the value.
Posted on 11/7/21 at 1:33 pm to oklahogjr
I like the potential here I think I’ll buy a chunk tomorrow
Posted on 11/7/21 at 4:20 pm to deltaland
quote:
I like the potential here I think I’ll buy a chunk tomorrow
I'm essentially selling options on it as of right now and running the wheel on half my position once i'm in.
Here's my estimated pipeline values and i think this will help put the current approved drug only pricing in place.
total Pipeline NPV : $107,904,836.47
BCX9930
$1,800,000,000.00 - Peak sales
5000- PNH pateients
90%- Market Penetration Rate
$400,000 - Estimated drug pricing, marked it cheaper than similar/competing but may have slashed too much
Phase 2 - current phase we're in, we'll have a large valuation jump once in phase 3(33% multiplier)
$91,444,776.67 - Net Present Value, used 8 years out and 10% discount rate.
BCX9250
$324,000,000.00 -Peak sales
900 - this is worldwide patient count for FOP, in theory there maybe 4000 with folks undiagnosed, i think this is aggressive enough.
90% - market penetration rate, i found no competition.
$400,000.00 -didn't find competition at market just used a rate similar to above for now.
Phase 2 - current phase, we'll have a large valuation jump once in phase 3(33% multiplier)
$35,283,600.00 - Cash flow from peak sales.
$16,460,059.80 - Net present value of that cashflow 8 years out.
Edit: Did some further math for fun playing with my excel sheet. I think fair value here is somewhere between 1.98B and 2.8B. The difference in these valuations is the estimated value of BCX9930 and whether we apply only the PNH patient size or whether we move that estimate up since i think they're trying to use it on a host of renal diseases so that does most likely justify moving up the patient population. 50k patients puts us at 2.8B 5k is the 1.98B value.
My options will put me around $14 or at the 2.5B number entry position which is higher than I want but nothing a little option swapping can't fix for me.
Current Market value is 2.2B
Using the $550m for 5 years and taking the NPV to get to these numbers for orledayo.
This post was edited on 11/7/21 at 5:31 pm
Posted on 11/7/21 at 8:00 pm to oklahogjr
quote:Thanks for your valuation model. I can mostly follow
oklahogjr
I'm adding a few notes as I read conference calls.
1) Damn what a confident management
2) They want to be a big pharma company. There's no doubt about it. If BCRX were to one day get acuired it would be an enormous deal. Think Celgene (74 billion) big.
3) Orladeyo Patent is good through 2039!
- As mentioned 550m in peak sales is based on US alone
- 96 wk. data looks good. People like the drug and it is safe. It is making great gains compared to Takhzyro, which saw a 2% decline in sales this quarter.
- Orladeyo has recently gained reimbursal approval in the UK and Norway and is currently trying to launch in Germany, France, Japan, and in the UAE.
- The CEO expects sales to occur in the UK by the end of November.
- CEO would not give a revised estimate on peak sales yet, but said with European markets he expects the number to be "well north of 500 million".
This is how Jon Stonehouse, CEO, started the call:
quote:
Orladeyo is showing that oral drugs can have a huge impact on the lives of patients with rare disease. But what if we could repeat this over and over, again in many different rare disease settings? That's our strategy, and we have a world-class discovery platform that differentiates us through its unique capability to develop potent, specific, and orally bioavailable compounds against very difficult biologic targets. Orladeyo is the first to make it to market from our discovery engine and our oral Factor D inhibitor BCX9930 is next.
Going after Factor D as a target allows us not only to bring another oral drug to patients suffering from a rare disease, but there are multiple diseases to treat with an oral Factor D inhibitor as the alternative pathway plays a key role in many complement-mediated diseases. After demonstrating proof of concept in PNH patients late last year with 9930, we are now in pivotal studies in PNH and a proof-of-concept study in three nephritis indications. Our pipeline is full and following quickly behind Orladeyo. There are many more rare diseases to pursue and many patients waiting for any drug, let alone an oral drug, to treat their disease.
2021 continues to be an extraordinary year for BioCryst, and the good news is we're just getting started.
This post was edited on 11/7/21 at 8:02 pm
Posted on 11/7/21 at 11:51 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
Thanks for your valuation model. I can mostly follow
I'm still playing with it a little bit but i think it's a conservative guide. I can definitely crank up the valuation playing with ordelayo numbers on pricing guidance, patients, and market penetration.
in kinda weirdly related news NTLA(intellia- Jennifer Doudna's biotech using crispr) is working on something that might make ordelayo essentially useless. it's early on but something to watch for.
NTLA-2002
APPROACH
Employs a knockout edit of KLKB1 gene in hepatocytes
GOAL
Aims to reduce plasma kallikrein activity to prevent excess bradykinin production leading to HAE attacks after a single course of treatment
Posted on 11/8/21 at 6:53 am to oklahogjr
quote:Definitely. Good find.
in kinda weirdly related news NTLA(intellia- Jennifer Doudna's biotech using crispr) is working on something that might make ordelayo essentially useless. it's early on but something to watch for.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 3:22 pm to bayoubengals88
Hope everyone bought at the bottom. I'm still holding underwater puts hoping they execute and the price moves toward $14
Posted on 11/9/21 at 4:11 pm to oklahogjr
I’m up 7% overall so far
Posted on 11/9/21 at 5:31 pm to deltaland
My Best Buy’s were 12.15 and 12.20 but just 26 shares total
Posted on 11/9/21 at 6:43 pm to bayoubengals88
quote:
but just 26 shares total
I see you learned your patience lesson better than I did at least.
Posted on 11/9/21 at 6:50 pm to oklahogjr
quote:Let’s see how patient I am when I’m flush with cash
I see you learned your patience lesson better than I did at least.
I fully expect a recovery to the normal trading range of 14-16. I hope to buy on any 5-10% dip.
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