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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
8932 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Nice

Today's SA article by Steven Goldman was spot on.
I'm intrigued now by the fact that a buyout might not be the management's goal. I like how they're diversifying and trying to build sustainable revenue.


jmcwhrter
Member since Nov 2012
568 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Retesting 6-month lows... if it breaks is anybody bailing and waiting for re-entry?


MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
13819 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Nope. Will just keep adding. Betting the farm on this one.


shotcaller1
Georgetown Fan
Member since Oct 2014
6009 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Man, I'm a little relieved I got out of this game. It consumed my life for a time. But reading this makes me want to jump back in


Ray Finkle
LSU Fan
collier county
Member since Sep 2007
1040 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
AUPH OUCH!


cuyahoga tiger
LSU Fan
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
3530 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Damn, buying opportunity?...who's adding to their position? I'm holding for now...I have bought, sold and took some profits and have bought more about a week ago


Paul Allen
Notre Dame Fan
Boca Raton, FL
Member since Nov 2007
49540 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I’ll buy some if it goes under $4.00


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bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
8932 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

Retesting 6-month lows... if it breaks is anybody bailing and waiting for re-entry?

This stock hit $4.70 last October then dropped to $1.90 in January of this year....I bet those folks are happy to have bought.

Don't get left out. Nothing has changed here regarding the Science.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
8932 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Why I’m bullish on AUPH
I. Nothing about the drug (Voclosporin) or its efficacy has changed

• Phase II results (48 wk. data) from March were the best results that have ever been recorded for Lupus Nephritis. Did I say ever? This is not my opinion or even from Aurinia’s team.

• Here’s a quote from the Department of Medicine at Ohio State University:
o “The AURA trial’s long-term results convincingly demonstrate that the addition of voclosporin to standard of care treatment is superior to standard of care alone. These data are not only statistically significant, but clinically important. Twice as many patients given 23.7mg voclosporin twice daily achieved a complete renal response compared to those treated with placebo. This is an impressive renal response rate and these results may shift the treatment paradigm of LN. Based on these encouraging data, I am looking forward to the Phase III trial of voclosporin in LN.” - Brad Rovin, MD, FASN, Director of Nephrology and Vice Chairman of Research for the Department of Internal Medicine at the Ohio State University Wexner Medical Center

• Stock movement at 24 and 48 weeks:

o during October of 2016 share price moved from low $2s to $4.70 on 24 week data release. For fear that Aurinia was running out of cash for the future development of Voclosporin, and some uncertainty concerning management, AUPH fell to $2 again in December of 2016.

o Share price then climbed to the mid $3s with the announcement of Richard Glickman as CEO in February of 2017, and with anticipation of the completion (48 week data) of Phase II trials. This is the data that is highlighted above.

o Complete remission was achieved in 49% of patients at 48 weeks, and partial remission achieved in 68% of patients. Most significant is the P value of less than .001 simply meaning that the odds of Voclosporin’s success are far far greater than they need to be for fda approval (p<.05)

• Stock movement after 48 wk data:

o Shares of Aurinia soared from $3.71 on March 1 to $10.54 by March 13…yeah you could argue that it was overbought, but what drove the stock down to $7 where it stayed for two months was the public offering.

o Aurinia needed cash (this was no secret), so instead of partnering with a larger pharmaceutical Glickman offered around 20 million shares of stock at $6.75 to raise 170 million dollars for the funding of Phase III.

o Why $6.75? well considering the stock was at $3.50 three weeks prior it probably didn’t seem like a bad idea. Who knew AUPH would peak above $10? But the rest is history.
o Now, why did price drop below $7 and even $6 since then? This is a long play that requires patience, and not many people are willing to wait for 3 years until Voc is able to create revenue.

• None of this really matters. Long retail investors along with many over 70 institutions are in AUPH for what we think can potentially be a $30/share company in two years.

About Aurinia
Aurinia is a clinical stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing and commercializing therapies to treat targeted patient populations that are suffering from serious diseases with a high unmet medical need. The company is currently developing voclosporin, an investigational drug, for the treatment of LN, FSGS, MCD and DES. The company is headquartered in Victoria, BC and focuses its development efforts globally.
About LN
LN in an inflammation of the kidney caused by Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) and represents a serious progression of SLE. SLE is a chronic, complex and often disabling disorder and affects more than 500,000 people in the United States (mostly women). The disease is highly heterogeneous, affecting a wide range of organs & tissue systems. It is estimated that as many as 60 percent of all SLE patients will develop clinical LN requiring treatment. Unlike SLE, LN has straightforward disease outcomes (measuring proteinuria) where an early response correlates with long-term outcomes. In patients with LN, renal damage results in proteinuria and/or hematuria and a decrease in renal function as evidenced by reduced estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), and increased serum creatinine levels. LN is debilitating and costly and if poorly controlled, LN can lead to permanent and irreversible tissue damage within the kidney, resulting in end-stage renal disease (ESRD), thus making LN a serious and potentially life-threatening condition.

About Voclosporin
Voclosporin, an investigational drug, is a novel and potentially best-in-class CNI with clinical data in over 2,400 patients across indications. Voclosporin is an immunosuppressant, with a synergistic and dual mechanism of action. By inhibiting calcineurin, voclosporin blocks IL-2 expression and T-cell mediated immune responses, and stabilizes the podocyte in the kidney. It has been shown to have a more predictable pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic relationship, an increase in potency, an altered metabolic profile and potential for flat dosing compared to legacy CNIs. Aurinia anticipates that upon regulatory approval, patent protection for voclosporin will be extended in the United States and certain other major markets, including Europe and Japan, until at least October 2027 under the Hatch-Waxman Act and comparable laws in other countries and until April 2028 with anticipated pediatric extension.

About DES
DES, or keratoconjunctivitis sicca, is a chronic disease in which a lack of moisture and lubrication on the eye’s surface results in irritation and inflammation of the eye. DES is a multifactorial, heterogeneous disease estimated to affect greater than 20 million people in the United States.

About VOS
VOS is an aqueous, preservative free nanomicellar solution containing 0.2% voclosporin intended for use in the treatment of DES. Studies have been completed in rabbit and dog models, and a single Phase I has also been completed in healthy volunteers and patients with DES. VOS has IP protection until 2031. In April 2017, Aurinia announced an agreement granting Merck Animal Health (MAH) worldwide rights to develop and commercialize (VOS) for the treatment of DES in dogs. MAH previously conducted proof of concept research in dogs suffering from DES, which affects one out of every 22 dogs.
This post was edited on 11/15 at 2:04 pm


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
8932 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
will probably keep adding to this when I make the time.


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
8932 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Who created the current standard of care for Lupus Nephritis?

Richard Glickman did it back in 2009. He's currently the CEO of Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH).

He's merely improving on his own drug, and he and others who are patient are going to receive one hell of a paycheck.

This is a two billion dollar market, and it is virtually unmet (hence Voclosporin--AUPH's drug).

DES/Dry Eye Syndrome is also a >billion dollar market under the current standard of care, Restasis...enter VOS, a new indication for Voclosporin.

VOS is an aqueous, preservative free nanomicellar solution containing 0.2% voclosporin intended for use in the treatment of DES. Studies have been completed in rabbit and dog models, and a single Phase I has also been completed in healthy volunteers and patients with DES. VOS has IP protection until 2031. In April 2017, Aurinia announced an agreement granting Merck Animal Health (MAH) worldwide rights to develop and commercialize (VOS) for the treatment of DES in dogs. (but it has kept the rights for treatment in humans)...

Data for VOS and DES comes out second half of next year. Upon success, I can Glickman selling off VOS for 600 to 800 million in order to focus his company on renal (kidney) diseases. He's stated that AUPH is a renal solutions company. Selling VOS would automatically double the value of the company.

I really don't understand why this thing has flirted with four dollars today. Are people so dumb to sell a non revenue producing pharma because it showed a quarterly loss of 14 cents per share?? We've got 182 million dollars to see Phase III through!
I honestly think that a fair price at the moment is around $8 (worth around 600 million dollars) Hell, all the price targets have it above $10...

I'd say the five year outlook here is somewhere near 4 billion in market cap.
This post was edited on 11/15 at 2:16 pm


Turftoe
LSU Fan
Denver
Member since Mar 2016
350 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
When is the next potential catalyst?


bayoubengals88
Wisconsin Fan
LA
Member since Sep 2007
8932 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
The next known catalyst is mid 2018 with Dry Eye Syndrome and Multiple Change Disease data readouts


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MSTiger33
LSU Fan
New York City
Member since Oct 2007
13819 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Bios got fricken rocked yesterday and today. I got crushed, but still holding.


Pangloss1010
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
277 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Any AUPH specific news out today? Or just sector movement?


cuyahoga tiger
LSU Fan
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
3530 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

news out today?


none that I see....Bengal will be here shortly to make us all feel better....may be time add some?


Paul Allen
Notre Dame Fan
Boca Raton, FL
Member since Nov 2007
49540 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
Now at $4.71 a share


cuyahoga tiger
LSU Fan
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
3530 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
there will be swings for another year or so...there is risk as most biotech...I'm not adding more just yet, if ever


Paul Allen
Notre Dame Fan
Boca Raton, FL
Member since Nov 2007
49540 posts
 Online 

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
I am close to parting ways with this one. This past March it was $10.00 a share.


cuyahoga tiger
LSU Fan
NE Ohio via Tangipahoa
Member since Nov 2011
3530 posts

re: Aurinia Pharmaceuticals (AUPH) off to a good start in 2018
quote:

$10.00 a share.


correct and I took some profit just below that point , but have added a couple times in the low 5's...but really not much has changed fundamentally with this one, except that the runnup may have been buyout speculation, which won't happen until they get closer to FDA approval in 2019...I think


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